Common situation w/ midpair and an 18bb stack

[sledghammer]

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Ok, let's do the math. I would put villain on a range of 88+, AT+ and once we shove, he will call with JJ+,AK.

For the pairs there are 6 possible combinations each. For the other hands 16 each. So villain is raising with 106 hands and calls a shove with 40 of them. So we are getting called with 37.7% of villain's raising range.

If villain calls, pokerstove shows:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 33.308% 33.13% 00.18% 136129056 750132.00 { 77 }
Hand 1: 66.692% 66.51% 00.18% 273323640 750132.00 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }

If we shove and win, our new stack is at 11.122
If villain folds, our new stack is at 6.686

Now let's put all this together:
(0,623 x 6.686) + (0,377 x 0,33 x 11.122) = 5549

So with those ranges, it's slightly +cEV

In general I'm with kurtkatt:
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i probably push/fold 50/50. 44 i push less, 99 i always push.

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For one thing, his range is only that tight if he is a super-nit. We don't have a read, so his range is likely much wider. Secondly, 44 does just as well against his(your version) calling range as 99 or 77. You might get calls out of smaller 88-55 occasionally, though.

[van_exel_fan]

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i probably push/fold 50/50. 44 i NEVER push, 1010 i always push.

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