another laydown, way more annoying

[luegofuego]

yeah i forgot exactly what my point was. probably that ppl give the dude too wide bluff/bad valuebet-range and not enough boats.

[ddubois]

Hand 0: 46.429% 46.43% 00.00% 13 0.00 { 99-88, AdJd, KdJd, QdJd, J8s+, AJo, J9o+ }
Hand 1: 53.571% 53.57% 00.00% 15 0.00 { Th7s }

You can include zero combos of purely busted draws, and discount AJ/KJ/QJ very heavily (I removed AJs-QJs of non-diamonds, and KJo-QJo), and still be a favorite. You only need to win 1/3rd of the time here. Your turn check basically said "I'm scared of the jack", so the opponent will naturally conclude any J is a winner.

I do agree his bet size is troubling, but still.

Oh, I forgot QT:
Hand 0: 62.500% 62.50% 00.00% 25 0.00 { 99-88, AdJd, KdJd, QdJd, QTs, J8s+, AJo, QTo, J9o+ }
Hand 1: 37.500% 37.50% 00.00% 15 0.00 { Th7s }

That makes it much closer.

[good2cu]

call

Villian could easily have like J5s (any jack), a missed flush or a miss straight. Without a read this is a terrible laydown.

[DJ Sensei]

I'm thinking bet turn, and fold if he raises, or if he calls and bets river big. we get more value from drawy jacks that way. but if he'll c/r shove turn on a semibluff once he trips up, thats no good.

i dont mind the river laydown, the potsized bet really smells like the nuts (though your turn checkbehind could lead him to do stupid stuff)

[jfish]

[ QUOTE ]
call

Villian could easily have like J5s (any jack), a missed flush or a miss straight. Without a read this is a terrible laydown.

[/ QUOTE ]

its not terrible given that he potted it, but i also call.

[jfish]

[ QUOTE ]
i dont mind the river laydown, the potsized bet really smells like the nuts (though your turn checkbehind could lead him to do stupid stuff)

[/ QUOTE ]

ya my thoughts.

[FireStorm]

He doesn't have J/rag thru JT very often here at all, I doubt somewhat that this guy is bold/insane enough to stick in $510 on the river with trips/no kick. I'm not sure why everyone in this thread seems to view hands like QT and J8s as impossibilities. If you are willing to simply chalk this up to Jx playing like a maniac, you will calling rivers light with tons of complete hands, and losing plenty of showdowns with them.

[ddubois]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure why everyone in this thread seems to view hands like QT and J8s as impossibilities.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes, that's exactly what was said.

[AAismyfriend]

mehhh, this is so borderline here and I def don't think a fold is that bad......any reads on this guy? I'd be tempted to call here just because all draws missed and he could easily be value betting just trip jacks. I think he has to be really really bad here to show up with just a J though, unless it's JT.

[Josh.]

only skimmed through most of this thread but i think this is a pretty easy fold once he POTS the river