Stud 8b - jamming aces up on 6th

[donger]

This was in a HORSE tournament, so there are more clueless stud players overall and way more clueless players deeper in the event. At my table in the later rounds the eventual 14th place finisher brought it in, then called 2 bets cold with (A9)3 and a 2 flush in stud8.

[PokerJans]

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Also try and put this guy on a hand. Think it through from beginning to end and give me a range of hands that he would play like this on 3rd through 5th.

It is fairly obvious that the villain in this hand doesn't know what is going on here...

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Come on...don't be shy!

In addition the more I think about my point from above here the more I actually like three-betting on 6th. I also do agree that players might just check behind with whatever two pair so three betting 6th might be better. Would have to know more about what kind of animal we were playing against.

[DrewOnTilt]

whaddup donger

If you want to post hands here in the stud form, use one of the converters at this site:

http://www.andyblackwood.com/converter.html

There are converters there that work for both Stars and FTP.

[Johnny#5]

Actually, it's a pretty close decision, if you 3-bet 6th, whether or not to fold to a cap.

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=2949783
pokenum -7s8 as ac 9d th 9c 5h - jd jh jc 6d 5d kh / 2c 3c ah 2s 6s 8h
7-card Stud Hi/Low 8-or-better: 1122 enumerated outcomes
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
As Ac 9c 9d Th 5h 82 82 1040 0 0 0 0 0.073
Jc Jd 6d 5d Kh Jh 1040 1040 82 0 0 0 0 0.927

At this point we're a 12.7 to 1 dog. By my count there are 11 BB plus the antes, whatever they are on FTP. It's really close between folding to the cap and calling then folding the river unimproved because we have some implied odds on the river. We have 76% equity when we river 9's full and 97% equity when we river A's full and we'd be able to make up about .2 BB I'd guess on the river. So you need to be over 90% sure of your read to give this up on 6th.

So folding to a cap saves you at best .1 BB. If he has trips, calling the raise on 6th and drawing to a boat gets us about .85 BB more than putting in 3 and folding on 6th. That's almost as much as you get from him if he calls down your 3-bet with kings up which he'd have to be retarded to do bet we'll assume he does it anyway. In other words about 45% is the magic number: if he has trips more often your 3bet would be -EV, if less than that your 3-bet would be +EV. My experience in similar situations suggests that a 3-bet here would be optimistic. YMMV.

[Andy B]

I call down. You're either way ahead or way behind. You should be beaten, but people play bad. If you three-bet and fold to a four-bet, you're putting in the same amount of money as you would if you had just called down. I seriously doubt that the value you get from a three-bet compensates for the fact that you've relinquished your equity in a sizable pot.