KK flops top set, death card on the turn

[mflip]

Is villain a 2+2er? OP says it's a successful low-limit player so I take it he's capable of some thought. Firing the turn on that board is incredibly strong. The only bad part is we have to call a shove but I wonder if we have enough FE + our (10 maybe?) outs.

[Cornell Fiji]

This:

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coming from the small blind you need to make a larger raise preflop. As soon as one person calls your raise, everyone else is coming along no matter what. make it like 300-350 or so. make a bigger bet on the flop

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and this

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anyone pushing the flop here?

I know its an overbet but theres like 19 cards here that will scare the bejeesus out of you if the hit (4 nines, 4 aces, 4 jacks, + 7 diamonds) Although they might not all beat you, you wont be able to know that, and against 19 cards twice I think you are an underdog.

Also, with the overbet you might get called by a few hands that you are well ahead of.

Keep it safe and simple I reckon.

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Are both REALLY bad thoughts. If anyone read these comments and nodded their head in agreement then you have a serious problem with your play.

You should focus your actions on how to get the maximum value from a hand and NOT how to avoid getting sucked out on. Scared poker leaves too much money on the table to be profitable poker.

Players who thought that the above quotes were correct will be less likely to have their KK cracked, but they will also be a small stack when the bubble comes around and it will be harder for them to exploit the bubble to obtain the monster stack which will make it easier to get all of the chips in play

[AC-Cobra]

Ok so I didnt factor in implied odds on the turn, everyones mentioned it so lets do the calculations.

If when we hit our hand our villian is 100% to put in all of his chips our EV from the river is 2310. Personally against a good player in this position Id place our expected EV from hitting our house at around 1500 here.

Therefore our odds offered end up at about 4.3-1, although this is not at all precise. Seeing as we have just over 4-1 of hitting our hand, I think the call is still marginal and against a good TAG i would fold.

I also realise I havent mentioned the river as played, this is an insta-fold IMO.

[Andrew1593]

As a follow-up to AC's post and anyone who was talking about calling the turn based on implied odds:

If we're calling the turn based only on implied odds, then we should almost always fold to a river bet when we don't fill up. This is what implied odds are all about. If we call the turn bet planning to call a river bet when we don't make our hand, then we're actually subject to reverse implied odds.

It's important that we don't use "implied odds" as a cheap rationalization. It's the same idea that applies when we call a PF raise with a small pair hoping to flop a set. If we're getting express odds of, say, 5-to-1 but we know that we can get more money out of our opponents when we do flop a set AND we can get away from our hand when we don't flop a set, then our implied odds are probably higher than 7.5-to-1, and we are justified in calling PF. But we can't forget that implied odds require us to fold when we don't make our hand.

[alwardc4]

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hmm I really like that approach alward... I guess against the small stack it's not hard to get all chips in anyway.. and even the other guy isnt insanely deep so if he catches a nice 2nd best I would still break him..

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Yeah, apparently it sucks donkey balls though. All of the "respected" posters say it plain sucks.

I also think overbetting the pot has merits and it may be best. I just think that a less than pot sized bet OOP in this situation is exploitable.

[thebawler]

I would fold on the turn.......flush and str8 hit.......if he has a Jack then he should be betting this turn with 3 diamonds out

[maca9]

Would it be wrong to lead a decent bet on the turn instead of checking and then calling?

As soon as Ad hits and we no longer are willing to be the agressor is he now just preying on us showing weakness in face of the Ad?

I am definitely only learning so may have this all wrong but in HOH he talks about defining your hand sooner rather - is this one of those situations on the turn here by betting again? Anything that calls after the Ad has you beat. So from there you know. By calling you spend the cost of the call and still don't really know where you stand......But hope the board pairs.


Just some thoughts...

Cheers

[NotFadeAway]

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anyone pushing the flop here?

I know its an overbet but theres like 19 cards here that will scare the bejeesus out of you if the hit (4 nines, 4 aces, 4 jacks, + 7 diamonds) Although they might not all beat you, you wont be able to know that, and against 19 cards twice I think you are an underdog.

Also, with the overbet you might get called by a few hands that you are well ahead of.

Keep it safe and simple I reckon.

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If I counted correctly there's about 3800 behind and a pot of 800. Shoving that is flat crazy and reeks of weak-tight play.

[NotFadeAway]

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When OOP I almost always check this flop. If someone bets(often will happen on that board) then can trap with a check-raise (maybe crai).

If it checks around and a scare card like this hits then you check-call it down. Snapping off some bluffs and beating other pretty good holdings.

If it checks around (ontheflop) and a brick comes on the turn then you lead. Now they are not getting the great implied odds they are getting when you lead the flop. Plus, you are underrepping your hand and will get paid out by more things.

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checking this flop is just awful...

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Very convincing retort

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But no less true.

[JammyDodga]

I'm going to stand by my advice to push this flop, and it's not weak tight. Pushing the flop is the best way to minimse busting out AND extract the most value. It's not about trying to win the 800 pot right there, but about maximising you chances of getting them all in against a hand that you beat rather than one that beats you.

Betting pot 3/4 pot is simplisting, unthinking and BAD, its just poker by numbers and doesn't take any account of the board. It just a "I have the best hand, lets make draws pay" move, and could come straight out of most beginners poker books. It doesn't think about what hands your opponant could have and whats the best way to get the most value from each of them.

I'm not going to be pushing with just a single draw with low cards on the board. I also disagree with raising 300 - 350 pre-flop, I think the pre-flop raise here was fine.

Here the flop is what makes a push very +EV

Theres 19 cards which you don't want to be seeing on the turn and the river. Over two cards, you are going to see at least one of those 19 cards close to 65% of the time. Any of these cards will hurt you, and can do so in 3 ways.

1. You could get bluffed out. You are OOP so if you check on the turn he is betting here a lot no matter what he's got, betting out in the dark on the turn isn't good either.

2. Your opponant could hit his draw, and this could cost you the pot and possibly your stack or a big chunk of it depending on how you play.

3. It will slow down the hands that you are well ahead of. This one is key, and shows why pushing the flop is the best way of extracting maximum value from this hand.

Theres a lot of hands in his range like, QQ, KQ, AK, 1010, AK, which you are absolutely dominating here, they will like their hand alot on the flop but if a scare card hits, you are not going to get any more action from them. Any action you do get is likely to be a hand that beats you. The best way to get the maxium value from these hands is to overbet the flop before any scare cards hit, when they still think they are winning.

Thats where most of the value in this hand lies, not in the hope that a draw will pay slightly above the odds. I'm quite happy to lose a few chips of value against the draws in exchange for stacking the good hands I have beat.