I'm deep, hit bottom set...and am thinking of folding?!??!?

[cooker3]

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This is a really easy push

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Thanks for the in-depth analysis.


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What else needs to be said tbh?
He has aces and kings far more then queens and jacks here, if your using stove I would weight it as such, people love just flat calling with sets but on scary flop with aces or kings they insta shove and soon as they can.

I can't believe people are actually considering folding this

[EMc]

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Anything besides pushing here is gross and incredibly weak - tight.

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Yup. OP probably onlt had a problem cause he was shown QQ this time around. I think given your read here, Im always shoving. I need to be like 300 BB deep before I think about it.

[TheSalche]

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Yup. OP probably onlt had a problem cause he was shown QQ this time around.

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Note: I pushed, he called and flipped over AA.

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Nope.

[XHitman014]

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Note: I pushed, he called and flipped over AA.

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I thought about it and pushed...but it was the first time I ever actually thought of folding a set on the flop since beginning to play. Afterwards, doing post session review, I was just trying to set up a hand range and thought it might bring up a reasonable discussion.

[ssdex]

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Note: I pushed, he called and flipped over AA.

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I thought about it and pushed...but it was the first time I ever actually thought of folding a set on the flop since beginning to play. Afterwards, doing post session review, I was just trying to set up a hand range and thought it might bring up a reasonable discussion.

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very few micro players have experience deep--- and 200bb's seems like a lot of $ cuz most play pretty underrolled or atleast border line

in my experience/ without amazing reads--- you can't really even consider folding here until 350bb's--- and even then--- id have a tough time folding.

you just really never get this deep at nl50 and even if you do it doesnt seem like the big stacks ever get involved in 500-600bb pots---- i mean in 400k hands at nl50 stars I have only 1 pot over 550bb's.

[terencetsao]

really easy push

[DiamondDog]

I’d be really grateful if someone could check this to see if I’m doing it right.

Let’s work out the expected profit from shoving.

The pot before you shove is $97.75
If you put him all in, you’re adding $77.60

Let’s assume he has
EITHER AA, KK, AK
OR QQ, JJ

There’s 28 ways he could have AA, KK, or AK
and 12 ways he can have QQ or JJ

So probability that he has AA, KK, or AK = 28/40 = 0.7
and probability that he has QQ or JJ = 0.3

If he has AA, KK, or AK, he calls, say, 50% of the time and folds the other 50% (because it finally dawns on him that you have a set).

If he calls, you’re playing for a pot of $229.95 and according to Pokerstove,
your equity is 87%.

If he folds, the pot is only $196.85 but your equity is obviously 100%

If he has QQ or JJ he’ll call your shove. (You’re not kidding he will.)
The pot will be $229.95 and according to Pokerstove your equity is a mere 4%

Your expected return is therefore

0.7 x [ $229.95 x 0.5 x 87% + $196.85 x 0.5 x 100%]
+
0.3 x [ $229.95 x 4%]

= $207.65

So your expected profit from shoving is $207.65 - $77.60 = $130.05.

Is that right?

[XHitman014]

I can't say for sure, but odds of having AK here are approaching zero and are throwing off your calculations. I think you could insert AQ/QJ in there though.

[Poker monkey]

NH but I'd repeat that pushing the flop is a mistake. You're lucky he called. At higher limits he'll lay down AA here. Smooth call and let him bet into you on the turn or river.

[orange]

I would call the shove. I think you'll see KK/AA/AQ/QJ/etc overplaying a bit too often. I would need a more solid read and a bit deeper before thinking about folding.