A3s - 6 handed

[Xylocain]

I'm not sure we need to protect a lot, we are often not raising for value since we could already be behind (to Ax, T6 or some other magnificent holding), the pot isnt very big (7 SB) and people have so weak draws on this board that I think we make more from loose overcalls on the flop.

Besides, if we think that Vil is a huge lagtard we can blow everyone else later since she is betting the turn 100%.

[Aaron W.]

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Aaron, against:
v: 54/7/1.24 - 420 hands

you don't think the turn donk is ever a T or even JJ? Perhaps a T that has picked up a flush or straight draw.

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I don't think it's a T or JJ often enough (which is different from never). If you count the odds as 7:2, you need villain to donk those hands twice more than 22% of the time. What's worse is that many of the hands you suggest villain might be holding have lots of outs (except for JJ). A naked Tx has 5 outs, T9/T8 have 9 outs, and it's more if he has a flush draw. Hero's hand, if it's not best, is often drawing to 3 outs or less. This means that you should adjust the odds a bit in villain's favor because he backs into the best hand some 15% of the time. So when you look at the odds, you might really need him to be bluffing those hands ~30% of the time, and that's asking for a lot of senseless aggression.

[00Snitch]

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I'm not sure we need to protect a lot


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I say we do. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] DUCY! [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Any hand with 4-5 outs or more can draw profitably for one bet but not two. This range includes:

KT;QT;QJ. KQ too, but I'll discount that a bit because of no preflop raise.

... and lets not forget every 0-gap connector from JT-65...

... and lets not forget all the 1 and 2 gap connectors that fit in there too that I CBF working out. 97s and the like.

[Xylocain]

But we have a [large] equity edge against all those hands, that will make up for a large part of it, the rest comes from not having to put extra money in while behind HU.

edit What I mean is, the pot isn't very big.

[00Snitch]

If you ask me (given Aaron's post), the turn call is a lot closer/tougher than the flop raise.

[Xylocain]

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If you ask me (given Aaron's post), the turn call is a lot closer/tougher than the flop raise.

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I'll leave that to Aaron to comment, but his response relies on the fact that we did raise and were still donked into (and I agree with him that as played turn probably closer to a fold).

Had we called the flop we would have called or raised the turn.

[00Snitch]

Why do you think we are behind UTG? How often does he have a better Ace? Keeping in mind that he would (probably) raise his big Aces up front. So we are really only looking at things like AT(9) and down and probably only the suited ones at that. There are many more hands that Ax donking this flop.

Maybe if we could be a bit more sure that he can bet with a Ten or a Six, maybe if the pot was a few bets bigger this would be a more clear raise.

[Aaron W.]

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If you ask me (given Aaron's post), the turn call is a lot closer/tougher than the flop raise.

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I agree. The flop raise needs to happen because at that point villain's hand range (barring reads -- and this is a theme throughout) can be quite wide and includes a number of Tx hands (since he is loose preflop). When he donks the turn, his hand range does *NOT* include very many Tx hands. The basic logic is that his turn donk indicates that he either improved or had hero beat already.

Now the hand range is skewed incredibly towards "hero was beat already" because the 7 doesn't improve very many hands: A7, 77, 98, T9/T8, and T7 (and it's not even guaranteed that he'll donk a pair+gutshot combo, nor that he would have donked a gutshot on the flop). The way it played out, this is A7 a huge amount of the time.

[Xylocain]

I find that oftentimes people dont read my posts when they reply to them.

In anycase its 21.40 and I shouldn't be at work [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[Xhad]

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I don't play this preflop.

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With no read this is fine if a little tight but if by "loose" hero means that most pots are 5-handed or more it's ok, especially after 2 people already call