Lets talk about AQ....

[Stumpy]

Dave, QQ is the least of your problems with AQ.

AK problems: AA(3) + KK(3).
AQ problems: AA(3) + KK(6) + QQ(3) + AK(12).

(4 times as many hands.)

You're 35% against 99+, AQ+. You're 30% against TT+,AK.

The hands that dominate you are also the ones willing to put a lot of money in. There are not a lot of boards that 99,TT go crazy on. JJ is slightly better, but an overcard is flopping 50% of the time (when you have two of them).

If you're playing AQ OOP in the reraise situation you're talking about, it'd better be because you've got a wide range for the guy, and think he will bluff or overplay his medium hands.

[Dave D]

How wide of a range are you talking about.

Is it unreasonable to think that JJ c-bets a lot of the time even on an Axx or Qxx flop?

[Dave D]

Incidently just for fun I just ran Poker stove with 99+ against AQ. AQ has 34% equity. Now I realize that we're only seeing 3 cards not 5, but villians are going to have a wider range than 99+, and are gonna pay off with cbet/folding a fair amount of the time, or drawing while behind or something some of the time.

[21times20]

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Is it unreasonable to think that JJ c-bets a lot of the time even on an Axx or Qxx flop?

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no, you are absolutely right, if you know your opponent has exactly JJ and the flop is going to have exactly a queen but no other face cards, then you should make this call all day

[Bakes]

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yeah AQ would be a gross call there lol

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Thanks for some reasoning lol.

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Here's some reasoning - go back to the micros based on this thread.

[Bakes]

[ QUOTE ]
Incidently just for fun I just ran Poker stove with 99+ against AQ. AQ has 34% equity. Now I realize that we're only seeing 3 cards not 5, but villians are going to have a wider range than 99+, and are gonna pay off with cbet/folding a fair amount of the time, or drawing while behind or something some of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

So where's AK at in this scenario? And how are they gonna pay you off if you whiff the flop (which you do most of the time)

[timmay28]

Speaking of AQ, this is my 2nd hand in tonight's FTP Fifty Fifty


Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $10/$20
9 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $2010
UTG+1: $2000
MP1: $2000
MP2: $2000
MP3: $2130
CO: $1990
Button: $1890
SB: $1980
Hero: $2000

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is BB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls, 3 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Button raises to $40</font>, SB folds, Hero calls $20 <font color="aaaaaa">(pot was $110)</font>, UTG calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($170, 4 players)
Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">UTG bets $80</font>, MP1 folds, Button calls, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $270</font>, UTG folds, Button calls.

Turn: K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($790, 2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks.

River: T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($790, 2 players)
Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">Button bets $790</font>, Hero......

[Stumpy]

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yeah AQ would be a gross call there lol

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Bakes,
I don't even know which side you're making fun of. :P


Dave,
"I don't really care about implied odds that much because my chances of flopping an A or Q are 1/3 but I'm getting more than 2:1."

That's not a workable argument for this or most situations. You don't automatically win when an A or Q flops.
In many cases you're very far behind when they do. In the example below, if you had more chips you could really get in trouble.
Look at the KK/AA cases. 15-23% of the time you flop top pair and are in deep, deep trouble.

I see a lot of 'first level' math arguments in threads. People think one play or another is correct because of experience.
Then they grab some random number facts that seem to support the case, but don't really work them out.
Working out the right answer here will help you in the future with about 20-30 other situations you're off on.
Individually, they're all somewhat minor mistakes, so you'll never wake up and say wow, I'm getting killed with AQ OOP.

I'm coming the other direction, because I have limited playing experience.
I'll read a thread and think X is the answer. I'll then work numbers expecting to show that, and get Y.

The ChopChoi example is pretty simple because stacks aren't deep enough to generate a lot of different actions for a given hand.
It'd be worth it to take the time to reason out all the different situations that can occur on this flop.
Even if you don't calcualate all the %ages and +/-chips, get a sense for how common they are and what you'd win/lose.



In the ChopChoi example, you're calling 600 into a 1550 pot with 2500 behind.

Pretend you get paid off in full every time you hit an A or a Q. You check/fold without top pair.
When called, I am factoring in the times he catches up in the last 2 cards. I didn't list those numbers. It's about 10% for most cases though.


If you're up against 99+, AQ.

99/TT/JJ: 30% of the time you'll flop an A or a Q without the guy hitting a set. 2.8% of the time he'll hit a set, and you'll hit top pair.
QQ: 18% of the time you'll hit an A. 6.25% of the time you'll flop that case Q.
KK: 15% you hit an A, no K. 15% a Q, no K. 1.4% you hit an A he gets a set.
AA: 23.4% you hit A/Q.
AK: 74% of the time you check/fold. Otherwise, 15.3% you're ahead. 10.5% you're not.
AQ: 23.4% you chop, rest you check/fold.

99/TT/JJ (18): +590.
QQ (3): +36
KK (6): -380
AA (3): -1185
AK (12): -237
AQ (9): -280

If you add all that up, it's -10 chips on average. That's assuming you get maximum value every single time you hit your hand.
I'm letting you fold a KQx flop, and for some reason he's bet/calling with 99 on an A hi flop every single time.

In other words, the perfect opponent. And you're losing.

[Stumpy]

Timmay,

I wouldn't call the river.

Others are way more qualified, but I think that's a decent spot for a blocking bet on the river.
Bet ~260, fold if he raises. Even with a set he can't really raise.
Otherwise, you're not checking the straight, so you've giving him an obvious steal opportunity.

[Dave D]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Incidently just for fun I just ran Poker stove with 99+ against AQ. AQ has 34% equity. Now I realize that we're only seeing 3 cards not 5, but villians are going to have a wider range than 99+, and are gonna pay off with cbet/folding a fair amount of the time, or drawing while behind or something some of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

So where's AK at in this scenario? And how are they gonna pay you off if you whiff the flop (which you do most of the time)

[/ QUOTE ]

I dunno what's more annoying, your arrogance/bitterness or those kids in your avatar. It's really close.

99+ includes AK, LDO. Type it into poker stove.

They pay you off the times they're donks, the times they Cbet when they miss, the times they think their 88 is good on a AQ3 board. The times they Cbet with with AK even though the flop is 38Q. Or JJ on a Q35 board.

If you miss, if the situation is right you float. If it's not, you don't. You make decisions post flop, that's called playing poker.

Jesus you are weak tight if you think a reraise always means THE NUTS.

And for the record, I never played micros. You, Cornell, and sometimes eveg can take your unecessary penis waving contest elsewhere. Your anger is misplaced and only serves to show your own personal weakness.