Million, broadway on monotone flop

[nath]

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Looks fine. The field in the Million is so bad and with the QKA all gone the amount of potential flushes decreases a lot.

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yeah i've never seen a donk in the million open limp two random suited cards two off the button before

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I have!

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[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[Stumpy]

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I almost said to fold the flop but thought I'd get fought a lot over that. He has a flush here almost always. If he doesn't he has KQ or limped AA/KK.
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I would disagree and I think the last comment you said would show that you overvalue some hands in some situations. If he has AA/KK as like 1/5 of his range then this is a fold.

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Gobbo, I don't understand what you mean with your 1/5 comment. You seem to be saying he has AA/KK/KQ or a flush. So AA/KK/KQ would have to be a lot more than 1/5 for this not to be a fold. You're only 75% against those hands, and dead against the flushes. So you'd need them to be 2/3rds of his range.



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I can't see many hands protecting themself on the flop besides KQ that we beat. I know we have a straight etc but his range is super polarized and if we are behind we are drawing dead. We need to be ahead soo often to call him down here. So fold flop I never do it but it's right.

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Gobbo and Shaun,
If the guy checked behind on the turn, would it really occur to you to suggest folding the flop?

Why can't the guy have a flush draw, a pair and a flush draw, or two pair? If the guy limped KQ, why can't he limp KJ,KT, or AT? LFTV completed in the SB and led at the flop. I don't think that's showing insane strength. The raise is a bit big, but it gets him a free turn a lot (as shown) and it might win the pot.

[shaundeeb]

Stumpy in my experience most people aren't raising a pair and a fd here cuz they don't want to rightly get blown off it by a huge 3bet. So KxJd usually just calls your flop bet. I think his lead on such a board is a lot more str, I don't see him completing many Ax hands here in SB and rightfully so. I don't know if he thinks that highly but if LFT has Ax9d leading this flop would be pretty bad.

[bluesbassman]

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Like, if anyone ever raises you and they're not committed to the pot they have pretty much the stone nuts in their mind .

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Right, which includes hands like A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. It's just very difficult for me to put a sufficiently high probability that villain flopped a flush to make me fold this hand. I dunno, maybe that's why I'm a donkey.

[Stumpy]

Shaun, how many hands can really put in a huge 3bet? Particularly if we have J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]?

I think you're getting a free card a huge % of the time.

[gobboboy]

Because you guys are overestimating that people would raise with those hands. In my experience, very few people raise those hands on the flop.

[EC10]

i think the fact that MP3 was the open limper, as opposed to him limping behind others, means that he is more likely to have a hand we beat (that's raising to protect his hand--i dont think hes ever bluffing). if he limped behind id be much more inclined to fold (i guess) since that weighs his range more towards suited [censored] and such