TV Trends and the future

[Aloysius]

LE - good post.

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But yes the network broadcast model is on its last legs.

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Since Michael Lewis' NYTimes magazine piece in 2000, the demise of "traditional" network broadcast model has been augured. It's going to be a slow transition for reasons I mentioned in my post above, and Leaky touches on.

Also - ad revenue erosion due to time-shifting and geo-shifting, wrt CPM, is going to happen but as long as networks churn out mainstream hits they'll maintain a portion of the ad pie. More importantly, ad revenue is not the only way to make money in the network broadcast model. As the Network suffers the role of the Studio becomes greatly enhanced as it looks to exploit its content along all emerging distribution platforms. So the issue of paramount concern of course is piracy.

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Still, just in terms of quantity, it feels like the model of the big budget network "franchise" dramas and comedies is rapidly becoming (has become?) far less valid now than ever before.

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The network TV business is incredibly expensive, production price points have increased dramatically past 5 seasons, especially for One-Hours. But the business is a homerun model, viewers demand high quality, long-form programming. So until the potential for a mega-hit erodes susbtantially, this is the model.

As an aside, something to chew on (and I kind of touched on it in my above post): what, if any, competitive barriers to entry does the current network TV model have? Always been distribution, that's obviously changing... but the Hollywood ecosystem, silos of production (e.g. studios, Unions), and vast $ earmarked for production funding are another critical one. The content is the key everyone understands the traditional Owned & Operated / Local Affiliates distribution model is dead in the water and has at most 10 years shelf-life.

-Al

[Aloysius]

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What sort of user experience do people expect on the web?

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From the research reports I've read (specifically screen preference reports), for long-form programming, consumers demand the same level quality as network / cable TV. Which is why only short-form programming works online. There's actually been alot of research done on threshhold levels for both duration and quality. This is obviously changing, but it's very slow adoption (the driver is much more about meeting consumer demands, vs. changing viewing habits).

Importantly, the idea that network ratings have eroded year-over-year the past 10+ years (true) doesn't factor in that 1) cable ratings have increased; 2) in general, more people are watching TV than were before, which makes sense with the population increase.

TV is the major screen preference currently and for the foreseeable future for in-home long-form content.

-Al