NCAAF Team totals plays

[MyTurn2Raise]

I just reviewed Kansas in depth

no way do I bet the over

little chance of betting the under

BIGXII north slate will be tougher with Nebraska and Mizzou. More automatic losses for KU than wins even with a heavy home schedule and non-name schools (it's not like they are huge favorites over C Michigan and Toledo ~5 pts)

[dmoney416]

Boot - I got mine on The Greek.

rsigley - I agree that Rutgers isn't that good. Tread carefully though because their schedule is incredibly easy. I believe their road games are Army, UConn, Syracuse, and Louisville. Four road games with Louisville being the only really tough game. Ya, they most likely lose to WVU too, but they get mostly home games.

lotus - MyTurn is about right here. I set aside a certain amount just for this purpose this season as I figured there would be at least a couple with value. I also wanted ND, but it went to -150 from -115 on The Greek.

KU - I feel that 6 is the right line. My research of this team turns up a very average, vanilla type team.

Sep 1 C. Michigan 7:00pm
Sep 8 Southeastern Louisiana 7:00pm
Sep 15 Toledo 7:00pm
Sep 22 Fla. International 7:00pm
Oct 6 @Kansas St. TBA
Oct 13 Baylor TBA
Oct 20 @Colorado TBA
Oct 27 @Texas A&M 1:00pm
Nov 3 Nebraska TBA
Nov 10 @Oklahoma St. TBA
Nov 17 Iowa St. TBA
Nov 24 Missouri TBA

In theory, they should beat CMU, SE LA, Toledo, Fla. Int, Baylor, and Iowa St.

Their remaining games are: @Kansas St., @Colorado, @Oklahoma St, @Texas A&M, Missouri, Nebraska

They will be prohibitive underdogs @OK St. and @A&M, and I can't see them winning there.

Missouri and Nebraska are at home, but they are projected to be atop the conference (though I could envision Kansas stealing one from Missouri)

KSU and Colorado are projected to be in the middle/bottom of the conference, but they get them on the road. I think winning one of these two would be the key to them winning 7 games.

How many of the tougher six games do you expect them to win? Also, while they will be favored in the first six, CMU and Toledo are no joke. I am actually leaning toward CMU +8 in their opener. They also lost @Toledo in 2 overtimes last season as 4 point underdogs. Toledo should also be much improved this season, so that will be a tough one.

Something tells me that they go 5-1 in the first set of games and 1-5/2-4 in the 2nd set. So, I pretty much think six is the right number with a slight lean toward the over. I wouls take the over if anything, but I don't think there is enough value in it either way as of right now.

[JPT III]

Guys:

Some good picks on this thread. Someone tell me, does the BoDog $600 max refer to the max risked, or max to win? (i.e., may I lay 1200 to win 600 on a total priced at -200?, or merely 600 to win 300?)

[MyTurn2Raise]

Bodog $600 max is the base amount...screwy

so, if the bet is -140, you can bet to win $600
if the bet is +140, you can risk $600

[bevo_stevo]

I'm in agreement with you on the Syracuse bet, but the other two are closer to neutral valued. Heres the estimates that I have:

Georgia Tech Season Wins: 7.386
@Notre Dame (2.5) 0.449
Samford (-39.5) 0.99
Boston College (-2.0) 0.528
@Virginia (0.5) 0.484
Clemson (-3.5) 0.6
@Maryland (3.0) 0.416
@Miami FL (6.0) 0.354
Army (-27.5) 0.985
Virginia Tech (2.5) 0.449
@Duke (-22.5) 0.969
North Carolina (-10.0) 0.746
Georgia (3.0) 0.416

South Carolina Season Wins: 7.184
Louisiana-Lafayette (-31.0) 0.99
@Georgia (8.5) 0.269
South Carolina State (-40.0) 0.99
@LSU (12.0) 0.22
Mississippi St (-13.0) 0.794
Kentucky (-3.5) 0.6
@North Carolina (-4.5) 0.627
Vanderbilt (-16.0) 0.845
@Tennessee (6.0) 0.354
@Arkansas (2.0) 0.472
Florida (3.0) 0.416
Clemson (-4.0) 0.609

Syracuse Season Wins: 2.139
Washington (4.0) 0.391
@Iowa (28.0) 0.015
Illinois (13.0) 0.206
@Louisville (35.5) 0.01
@Miami Ohio (11.5) 0.225
West Virginia (30.5) 0.01
Rutgers (21.5) 0.05
Buffalo (-6.5) 0.661
@Pittsburgh (18.5) 0.096
South Florida (19.5) 0.076
@Connecticut (7.5) 0.302
Cincinnati (18.5) 0.096

[MyTurn2Raise]

i mentioned this in the other thread

you should really get a population of possible outcomes and their probabilities

the relevant is not the mean expected value

ie, for G Tech:
look at probabilites of
1) 6 and less wins
2) exactly 7 wins
3) 8 and more wins

That's what matters

[dmoney416]

Thanks for the estimates. In my opinion you undervalue South Carolina and actually undervalue Syracuse. This is not criticism, just kind of a question of how you came up with the lines.

I would disagree that Kentucky and South Carolina would be a PKish type line on a neutral field (I think that it was you are implying with that line, correct me if I am wrong). Based on the lines, it also seems to imply that Vandy would be +12.5 against Kentucky on a neutral field. Are you particularly high on Kentucky this year?

For Syracuse, I think that the lines are a little lofty in general for their home games. I agree in general with their total wins, as I think that the Cuse winning two games is more likely than them winning five. However, I think that the Cincy game would be less than a TD if they played today (and this comes from a huge Cincy fan that thinks they are underrated coming into the year). I feel similarly about the S. Fla and Illinois lines. Are you simply very low on the Cuse this season?

Thanks for the input. Very interested in this type of capping.

[MyTurn2Raise]

[ QUOTE ]
i mentioned this in the other thread

you should really get a population of possible outcomes and their probabilities

the relevant is not the mean expected value

ie, for G Tech:
look at probabilites of
1) 6 and less wins
2) exactly 7 wins
3) 8 and more wins

That's what matters

[/ QUOTE ]


using bevo_stevo's numbers....
G Tech has a 47% chance of 8 or more wins
25% chance of exactly 7
28% chance of 6 or less


That might cause you to re-evaluate if it has value or not

where bevo_stevo's mean analysis didn't suggest much value,
his own numbers actually suggest a breakeven price of -168 on G Tech over 7 wins. This doesn't factor in time value of money and whatnot, which is another reason why the % of hitting exactly 7 matters.

[MyTurn2Raise]

FYI...bevo_stevo's estimates have the South Carolina bet as value until -132 or so