TPMK spot OOP in tilt 150

[woodguy]

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Why are 33, 77, and TT unlikely holdings?

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I expect these hands to call due to the blah nature of the board and how deep both players are.

[Bond18]

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Why are 33, 77, and TT unlikely holdings?

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I expect these hands to call due to the blah nature of the board and how deep both players are.

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Agreed, as well as him having position.

[nath]

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this guy seems to like to make moves at you

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We have only one hand in which villain donked into an active player's(hero) button raise.

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It's a tournament, you only have limited information and limited chances to capitalize on it. Even if all we know from the previous hand is he doesn't mind taking the lead vs. PFRs, that's enough to make me side there, all things considered.

[Bakes]

agreed, if your wrong fire up another one but your instinct should usually be more right than wrong; espec for u bond.

[MLG]

I often check the flop in these situations....intending to not fold.

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I often check the flop in these situations....intending to not fold.

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Can you elaborate on your plan when you take this line? What's your plan when he bets? What's your turn plan if it gets checked through and an overcard turns?

[MLG]

Well, my thoughts go something like this. I hate betting and getting raised for the reasons this thread illustrates. Basically its a good flop for him to [censored] around on, but he probably isnt doing it enough to make jamming all that appealing. If we check then we've changed the way he perceives our range a lot. If he bets im gonna call intending to keep calling on all but the most ugly boards. I'm assuming when he checks that he is checking marginal hands with showdown value (and sometimes sets), and when he bets he has sets/slowplayed OPs/and complete air. So, basically Im going to check call the flop, and turn almost always and sometimes fold to a 3rd shell depending on the board and various things. If the flop goes cc, and then he bets the turn i will cautiously call the turn with plans to check fold the river sometimes and check call the river sometimes.

Basically im making the decision that i will get very little value from my hand by betting, since i have the low end of the value range...but at the same time he can have a high bluff % if we let him. So act to let him try it.

[Billy Bibbit]

Vs. a decent player who seems to mix it up a fair amount, I think you have to just get it in on the flop. The problem I have with check-calling or betting and just calling his raise is that they pretty much turn your hand face up and he'll pwn you on the turn or the river. What exactly do you think he's going to put you on when you check-call or bet-call and why can't he just keep betting with hands that beat your weak one-pair hand and give up / take a free card with hands that don't?

I mean I get that a leak only matters if people actually exploit it, obviously if he's some stupid blufftard then MLG's line is best. But it seems to me that plenty of players in a $150 would be capable of basic hand reading. I consider myself a mediocre player but I know I've destroyed people at 100NL and 200NL who check-call flops as the PFR precisely when they have marginal hands, it's just way too easy to get them to do exactly what you want them to do. Which includes value-betting the [censored] out of them if I have them beat, and bluffing if the board gets scary for the hand that they obviously have.

MLG you are way better than a crappy 200NL reg so I'm sure there are some subtle details to your plan that I'm overlooking here.

[Bakes]

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If we check then we've changed the way he perceives our range a lot. If he bets im gonna call intending to keep calling on all but the most ugly boards. I'm assuming when he checks that he is checking marginal hands with showdown value (and sometimes sets), and when he bets he has sets/slowplayed OPs/and complete air

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Mmmmmm.....knowledge...

[MLG]

Billy,
of course you are right, and if that would be your read of the opponent then check call, check fold seems fine to me. Of course checking here gets you into a guessing game, and its not all that appealing of a guessing game. but, at the same time, any situation following a flop bet is equally unappealing imo. its a crappy spot to be in, where no eventuality makes me particularly happy. and generally speaking its ok to sometimes turn your hand "face-up" (as long as you are tricky enough to occasionally have something completely different).