assume bonds ties this weekend. does he play at all next week? - Page 3

LionelHutz00 · #21 07-29-2007, 03:15 AM

I hope he hits it on Tuesday cause I'll be booing his ass. Holla!

Vyse · #22 07-29-2007, 03:19 AM

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He just turned 32 the other day and has 499 home runs. It would take a Griffey-esque string of injuries to keep him from 760.

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Ever heard of "decline phase"?

kbfc · #23 07-29-2007, 03:35 AM

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You might want to recheck the record books. How many players have hit 260 career homeruns after the age of 32? I can think of two off the top of my head. Hand Aaron and Barry Bonds.

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How many other players have hit ~500 HRs by their 32nd birthday? Off the top of my head (and google), the answer is nobody. A-Rod is good.

Vyse · #24 07-29-2007, 03:42 AM

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You might want to recheck the record books. How many players have hit 260 career homeruns after the age of 32? I can think of two off the top of my head. Hand Aaron and Barry Bonds.

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How many other players have hit ~500 HRs by their 32nd birthday? Off the top of my head (and google), the answer is nobody. A-Rod is good.

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How many other players have hit 756 home runs? Off the top of my head, the answer is nobody. A-Rod will have to hit, what, 775 HR? 30 HR a year for seven years is only 210 home runs; 35 a year for seven is 745. He's only had 4 sub-40 HR seasons, true, but two have occurred in the last two seasons. He's an underdog, not a favorite, to keep hitting 30-35+ HR into his late 30s/early 40s.

vhawk01 · #25 07-29-2007, 03:52 AM

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You might want to recheck the record books. How many players have hit 260 career homeruns after the age of 32? I can think of two off the top of my head. Hand Aaron and Barry Bonds.

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How many other players have hit ~500 HRs by their 32nd birthday? Off the top of my head (and google), the answer is nobody. A-Rod is good.

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How many other players have hit 756 home runs? Off the top of my head, the answer is nobody. A-Rod will have to hit, what, 775 HR? 30 HR a year for seven years is only 210 home runs; 35 a year for seven is 745. He's only had 4 sub-40 HR seasons, true, but two have occurred in the last two seasons. He's an underdog, not a favorite, to keep hitting 30-35+ HR into his late 30s/early 40s.

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I think its really, really close but he is a dog. What kind of line are you willing to offer? I might be interested.

ProfessorBen · #26 07-29-2007, 03:54 AM

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I hope as a Giants fan if he cant do it this weekend that he does it in LA. The fact that I would enjoy the HR and they would hate it would make it worth it. Plus there could be a riot or something amusing, which is always something to root for..

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See you in the playoffs,
Dodger Fan.

dnh83 · #27 07-29-2007, 03:57 AM

Knowing Bonds, I don't think he'd really give a [censored] if he broke it on the road. I don't think he'd want to sit down now, the Giants are hot, they're "only" 11 games out. Now I know they won't make the playoffs but Friday night after the game Bonds was talking in his press conference about "winning a championship." I'd think he'd like breaking it in LA and sticking it to the Dodgers.

kbfc · #28 07-29-2007, 04:46 AM

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You might want to recheck the record books. How many players have hit 260 career homeruns after the age of 32? I can think of two off the top of my head. Hand Aaron and Barry Bonds.

[/ QUOTE ]

How many other players have hit ~500 HRs by their 32nd birthday? Off the top of my head (and google), the answer is nobody. A-Rod is good.

[/ QUOTE ]

How many other players have hit 756 home runs? Off the top of my head, the answer is nobody. A-Rod will have to hit, what, 775 HR? 30 HR a year for seven years is only 210 home runs; 35 a year for seven is 745. He's only had 4 sub-40 HR seasons, true, but two have occurred in the last two seasons. He's an underdog, not a favorite, to keep hitting 30-35+ HR into his late 30s/early 40s.

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I just quickly rechecked the books, and it looks like both Babe Ruth and Willie Mays can be added to the 260+ after 32nd birthday crowd. It's getting less and less exclusive. And A-Rod is already about 3 seasons ahead of pace on average.

It is probably true that he's a slight dog to do it, but that's almost entirely because of things like injury and extracurricular concerns. With smooth sailing, he's a huge favorite. I believe that was the initial point.

Also, I think it's unlikely Bonds makes it to 775. At the rate he's going right now, even 765 seems unlikely.

vhawk01 · #29 07-29-2007, 05:06 AM

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You might want to recheck the record books. How many players have hit 260 career homeruns after the age of 32? I can think of two off the top of my head. Hand Aaron and Barry Bonds.

[/ QUOTE ]

How many other players have hit ~500 HRs by their 32nd birthday? Off the top of my head (and google), the answer is nobody. A-Rod is good.

[/ QUOTE ]

How many other players have hit 756 home runs? Off the top of my head, the answer is nobody. A-Rod will have to hit, what, 775 HR? 30 HR a year for seven years is only 210 home runs; 35 a year for seven is 745. He's only had 4 sub-40 HR seasons, true, but two have occurred in the last two seasons. He's an underdog, not a favorite, to keep hitting 30-35+ HR into his late 30s/early 40s.

[/ QUOTE ]

I just quickly rechecked the books, and it looks like both Babe Ruth and Willie Mays can be added to the 260+ after 32nd birthday crowd. It's getting less and less exclusive. And A-Rod is already about 3 seasons ahead of pace on average.

It is probably true that he's a slight dog to do it, but that's almost entirely because of things like injury and extracurricular concerns. With smooth sailing, he's a huge favorite. I believe that was the initial point.

Also, I think it's unlikely Bonds makes it to 775. At the rate he's going right now, even 765 seems unlikely.

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I agree with everything except the last line. You think Bonds is a dog to get to 765? Care to wager?

Vyse · #30 07-29-2007, 05:24 AM

At the rate he's going now? You mean getting on base half the time? Or having the best EqA in baseball (.369; second is .346)? He's still the best offensive player in baseball.

You do realize that 32-year-old baseball players, even the great ones, do decline. You do realize that injuries become more and more commonplace, not the exception. Like I said, even 35 HR for the next seven years doesn't even break the soon-to-be-Bonds record, and even expecting A-Rod to average 35 HR the next seven years is laughable.