200 NL QQ in tough spot

[tarheeljks]

[ QUOTE ]
Villain has 54% equity I think.

[/ QUOTE ]

hand range please. i think you are giving him way too much credit.

[Hosehound25]

I used reef's range above, I think I did it correctly but you can double check.

[tarheeljks]

no stove on this computer, can you post it?

[Hosehound25]

yeah, just a sec...

[Hosehound25]

Sorry, little lower equity for villain, didn't put in correct suits for hero's QQ.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

37,620 games 0.047 secs 800,425 games/sec

Board: 5s 3s 4h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.386% 44.31% 03.07% 16671 1155.50 { QcQs }
Hand 1: 52.614% 49.54% 03.07% 18638 1155.50 { JJ+, 66, 33, AJs+ }


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[tarheeljks]

i think he's pushing expecting to have good fe, so i think the hands he pushes w/ on this board are weighted more towards the bottom of this range. i also think we see 99,TTa decent amount of the time.

[higher_energy]

depending on what hand range you assign to the villain - i think he either has a good combo draw or a set here very often.
imo, a combo draw would raise to pot here just because it gives more FE since it looks stronger so i think he has a set here trying to get it AI now.

cliff notes: i think that if you like variance you call, otherwise you fold.

[tarheeljks]

it doesn't make sense for him to push ai w/a set, he would probably just make a big raise.

[bilbo-san]

[ QUOTE ]
Tough spot but he could do this with JJ and 10's as well. Call and pay him off if he has AA/KK.

[/ QUOTE ]

Or the nut [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] draw, which has a lot of outs.

[gimmetheloot]

Well, I think that you have to call here. He has spades and other, smaller overpairs here wayyyyy too often to let this go.

Sometimes he has you but....