FTP $535 Fold The Nut Straight

[0evg0]

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people don't c/r bluff the river.

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Wow, I almost made a post to say the exact opposite.

While I definitely agree with you in NL cash that the river c/r is so much more often for value than as a bluff, in MTTs I think people almost never c/r river for value simply because "zomg what if they check behind" (ie. they're by and large not as good as in cash games). I find river c/r's in MTTs to almost always be unplanned and spontaneous "okay, i'll check/fold. wait, i'll raise him, come on fold, please fold, fold, fold!"

[Bond18]

K, this hand is weird as we're getting conflicting information (IMO.)

On the one hand, most players at 500 and above are smart enough to raise a two pair/set in this situation on either the flop or turn, especially OOP. That villain doesn't raise in either situation really makes it feel a lot less like he's got either of those.

Also, villain would play 98/T9 this way pretty often, including the pre flop just limp. I don't know how likely it is for villain to open limp 77/99/JJ (though yea, it happens) or K9/J9 (which also happens.) Seems like most of the time, pairs get a raise, the K9/J9 a fold.

My other problem here is villains river checkraise. In my experience, randoms don't river check raise without a pretty serious hand, though bluffs aren't unheard of.

I think villains raise is mostly 9T/98/A9, a pair with a back door spade flush draw that connected, or a bluffing diamond draw. With what distribution is hard to say, but i think unless i know i have a guy who's open limping those pairs, i may call this river.

[NoahSD]

I really wanna put him on a flush here, except all the reasonable flush hands are impossible. except for 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].

I'm really not sure. I think the c/r is strong, and I think it's usually stronger than trips, but previous streets just make it hard for him to have anything that beats us.

[sharkstevie]

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I fold here without feeling bad about it.

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[Irish Cannon]

I didn't care for the bet on the river. I could see him holding A7ss here. It's very possible he has just the trips here, but I don't think the bet on the river is worth the risk of a reraise. I'd fold here.

[Pudge714]

I think not betting this river is pretty bad because I rarely get c/red and my hand is best a lot.
I think it's weird people are not giving enough credit to c/c two pair on this turn, but giving him enough credit to make a c/r bluff or thin value c/r.
I think QT is a pretty easy fold here and I never really entertained calling just timed down and sighed because I had a straight and don't like folding them. I was thinking though can I fold a flush here? Something like 87ss because there isn't much of a difference here between 87ss and QT. I think I need to call/shove this river with any full house (although I would play other streets differently with them) and the 87ss or 9Tss are some of the worse flushes I can end up with at this river. I think I need to call with the ace high flush and queen high flush.

[0evg0]

This is insane.

You'd fold a flush here? Really?

Maybe retards do have it right when they say "Oh [censored] I ended up with a [censored] hand but I'm going to make him fold through FPS and throwing chips at the pot."

I'll stop because there are like 5 people who respect my opinion but that's okay because it's a two-way street.

Mind-boggling though.

[TheNewf]

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I fold here without feeling bad about it.

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[ZJ123]

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I fold here without feeling bad about it.

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+1

he has a full house like a lot. Randoms check a weak two pair here a lot (turn). I really don't think this is close to a call, unless the villian has a history of bluffing.

[Eagles]

I like the fold. But he's definetely bluffing some of the time. He's not planning a river c/r but he'll check you bet and then he wont have a hand he can call with so he'll get "win every pot syndrome" and raise.