Fourth Street Decision from Borgata 20/40 yesterday

[Andy B]

For starters. Capping third would be ridiculous.

[electrical]

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What would be wrong about capping third if you think/have the best hand and people are willing to play? Honest question.

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Your hand may be fractionally in front of the other two on Third, but you can't know that, and with only one Queen left in the deck, if either of the others improves or hits a draw, you have tough work re-drawing to a winner.

If you have an iron-clad read that you're good later in the hand, you can face somebody with big bets, a small pot, and fewer cards to come, which will more likely earn you the pot, or make your opponents' calling a more egregious mistake.

Until hands are better defined, your opponents aren't going to make a big mistake by taking a little piece of the worst of it on Third, and if it's a mistake at all, the bigger pot size will make playing on in the hand automatic with any reasonable draw.

This is the same reasoning that allows hero to see Fourth Street in this self-same hand, given that he ought to suspect a big buried pair. Maybe he ain't got that, and maybe we will improve.

You don't want to create a situation where your opponents can easily play perfectly against you. If you're going to put a bunch of bets in a multi-way pot on Third, do it when you're way ahead, not possibly a slim favorite.

[docholiday420]

You're right, for some reason I had this confused with another hand that started with Aces. Honestly after CIA reraise, without knowing much I would have taken him for rolled up, and tried to slow play at first then when he saw some action came back at ya. So my answer would be I would fold on third. Now, that probably is wrong, but honestly what I would do. If I guy sits down and I don't have a read with him I err on the side of caution unless I have a great hand until I can be sure he's full of [censored] most of the time. And with a dead queen out there my hand will be real tough to beat trips. If not trips than concealed A or K I would have to assume, again tried to slow play, but no thinks he will have action so is trying to get value.

I think it's dangerous to assume people are bad and let them prove you wrong. Instead I assume people know what they're doing and when I find out they're a joke play accordingly. I want to protect my money. This being the fourth hand with the guy and no A, K, or other 7 out there to reevaluate the decision. I would have folded on thirds. Queens are good because they could be the highest pair, but not the highest pair you might as well have deuces live, then queens dead.

[CarlosChadha]

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I think it's dangerous to assume people are bad and let them prove you wrong. Instead I assume people know what they're doing and when I find out they're a joke play accordingly.

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I used to do this as well, and it is "safer". Unfortunately, it is wildly incorrect for two reasons. One, most player, on average, are bad, so a random guy is more likely to be bad than good. Secondly, if you play a decent amount live (especially stud, where the player pool is small) you begin to recognize the same players over and over. A guy that you have never seen before is even MORE likely to be bad, since he is not a regular (and therefore probably an inexperienced player).