Breaking News - Ichiro signs 5/yr $100 million deal with M's

[Dids]

M's ownership lets them go over regular budget to re-sign Ichiro. Given that he's now grossly overpaid, I guess that's the case.

That said, as long as this doesn't [censored] us in other ways, I'm happy.

[SL__72]

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Dice-K is worth a whole lot more than Ichiro...

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Dude. Homerism. Enough.

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Over the length of their contracts I would way rather have Dice-K.

[Dids]

[03:30] <B_Dids> btw
[03:30] <B_Dids> THIS HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH HARGROVE BEING GONE AT ALL
[03:30] <B_Dids> NOT IN THE LEAST NO WAY

[Josh.]

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fast guys decline slower than adam dunn types

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Link? My not very scientific observations are that HR and BB don't decline rapidly, but SB and range do.

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Ichiro isn't a 'speed only' guy like a Vince Coleman - he's also a very legitimately good hitter.

I'm also not sure if Ichiro's unique skill set is easily predictable by something like PECOTA.

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shandler's stuff has problems with it too.

problem is if ichiro loses a step all of the sudden those hits to the left side of the field he sometimes squeaks out will be outs, etc etc.

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for years everyone talks about how he hits bombs in bp. it'll be interesting to see what type of adaptations he makes once he does lose a step. i wouldn't put it past the M's to do this without doing their due diligence but they probably have some idea of what type of value he'll have to them in 3 and 4 years from now, no?

i'm envisioning the mariners being the new mets of early 2000's with vaughn and alomar and co.

[NT!]

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Dice-K is worth a whole lot more than Ichiro...

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Dude. Homerism. Enough.

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i wouldn't call that homerism so much as a fact

[Kneel B4 Zod]

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How much money do you think Ichiro generates annually for the Mariners in merchandise sales alone? 20,000 jerseys at $100 each is already $2m. This also doesn't take into account increased stadium advertising dollars, TV dollars, gate receipts, etc... that can be directly attributed to Ichiro.

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not all of that goes to the M's, though. most of that goes to all MLB teams per MLB rules. the Me's only get to keep some, here is an article which touches on this from the Dice-K signing.

web page

"Zimbalist estimated that the Sox might gain no more than $3 million a year by cashing in on the Japanese icon because they would be required under major league rules to equally distribute the vast majority of their earnings related to the merchandising of Matsuzaka with the 29 other teams."

now, Seattle has a larger Japanese population than Boston, and need more help with local signage, etc than the Red Sox, so Suzuki is probably worth more "Japan dollars" to the M's than Dice-K is to the Sox. but I would guess not nearly enough to pay for this deal.

the Dice-K deal is only a winner only if he help the team get the extra 3-6 wins required to get to the playoffs and World Series, which are the most valuable wins a team can get. the Japan dollars are largely overrated. I would imagine the same goes true for this Ichiro deal, but the trouble is that he is much, much less likely to contribute to those wins than Dice-K is.

[MikeyPatriot]

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Ichiro isn't a 'speed only' guy like a Vince Coleman - he's also a very legitimately good hitter.

I'm also not sure if Ichiro's unique skill set is easily predictable by something like PECOTA.

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This was mentioned by one of the BP writers recently, though I forget which one.

[Kos13]

Wow, what a terrible deal. How does Bill Bavasi have a job?

[Triumph36]

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problem is if ichiro loses a step all of the sudden those hits to the left side of the field he sometimes squeaks out will be outs, etc etc.

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It really matters for him, doesn't it? I quickly pulled his hit chart from last year and he had around 20 infield hits to the left. That's the difference between .320 and .290.

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you're smarter than this - 20 infield hits won't go to 0 by the end of the contract.

vladimir guerrero is another player that PECOTA has a hard time quantifying imo

[MikeyPatriot]

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...che=1182683900

Don't know if that's for subscribers only or not, but it's an article Nate Silver wrote about Ichiro 2 1/2 years ago in regards to him (Ichiro) [censored] up PECOTA.