Post deleted by Mat Sklansky

[thehun69]

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Knowing where the stock is going should be the hard part

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It is because you never know. Nobody does. That's why you have to try and devise some sort of good risk/reward strategy that works if you are correct and doesn't sting so bad if you aren't. There is no way to know without doubt where a stock or commodity might go but there are higher and lower percentage plays. Once you figure you have found one of the higher percentage chances the next step is figure out a way to take advantage of it with a decent strategy. Different strategies have different risks and rewards and you have to determine which one is best for your own personal risk parameters.

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I agree, nobody knows all the time exactly where a stock will go. It is all about picking those high probability spots. Those aren't guaranteed and sometimes the market simply goes the other way. But to me, finding those opportunities aren't difficult, timing them using options are. That is why I use spreads to both mitigate the risk and widen the net a bit (if using butterflies, condors, etc).

THE HUN.

[Thremp]

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It is all about picking those high probability spots.

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What the [censored] does this even mean?

[turnipmonster]

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My friends who sell Cell-phones say that the technology they show on the adds will be tough to live up too.

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this seems like very poor reasoning to me, you thought they were misrepresenting the iphone in their ads?

[DesertCat]

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My PC answer
No I didn't think they were misrepresenting the iphones ability in there adds, but I think in there adds they showed these abilities at a speed that differs reality.

My non PC answer: this is the most hyped gadget in my life time I'm (25), take all of that aside. To assume a company may stretch the truth on early version of a very high priced, new product, which is build to be a long term staple of the company is not that unbelievable. IMHO

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Have you read any reviews that indicated it's not doing what it promised? Here is a summary of what the Wall Street Journal had to say.

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Testing Out the iPhone
We Spend Two Weeks Using Apple's Much-Anticipated Device
To See if It Lives Up to the Hype; In Search of the Comma Key
By WALTER S. MOSSBERG and KATHERINE BOEHRET
June 27, 2007; Page D1

One of the most important trends in personal technology over the past few years has been the evolution of the humble cellphone into a true handheld computer, a device able to replicate many of the key functions of a laptop. But most of these "smart phones" have had lousy software, confusing user interfaces and clumsy music, video and photo playback. And their designers have struggled to balance screen size, keyboard usability and battery life.
WSJ's Walt Mossberg says Apple's widely anticipated iPhone raises the bar for all other smart phones.

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We have been testing the iPhone for two weeks, in multiple usage scenarios, in cities across the country. Our verdict is that, despite some flaws and feature omissions, the iPhone is, on balance, a beautiful and breakthrough handheld computer. Its software, especially, sets a new bar for the smart-phone industry, and its clever finger-touch interface, which dispenses with a stylus and most buttons, works well, though it sometimes adds steps to common functions.

The Apple phone combines intelligent voice calling, and a full-blown iPod, with a beautiful new interface for music and video playback. It offers the best Web browser we have seen on a smart phone, and robust email software. And it synchronizes easily and well with both Windows and Macintosh computers using Apple's iTunes software.

It has the largest and highest-resolution screen of any smart phone we've seen, and the most internal memory by far. Yet it is one of the thinnest smart phones available and offers impressive battery life, better than its key competitors claim.

It feels solid and comfortable in the hand and the way it displays photos, videos and Web pages on its gorgeous screen makes other smart phones look primitive.

The iPhone's most controversial feature, the omission of a physical keyboard in favor of a virtual keyboard on the screen, turned out in our tests to be a nonissue, despite our deep initial skepticism. After five days of use, Walt -- who did most of the testing for this review -- was able to type on it as quickly and accurately as he could on the Palm Treo he has used for years. This was partly because of smart software that corrects typing errors on the fly.

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Expectations for the iPhone have been so high that it can't possibly meet them all. It isn't for the average person who just wants a cheap, small phone for calling and texting. But, despite its network limitations, the iPhone is a whole new experience and a pleasure to use.

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[DcifrThs]

in addition, here is a video of a NY times reporter using it in real time:

LINKY

skip to 2:05 to see the demonstration, the rest is poor plotting etc.

i have to agree w/ DC here. your reasoning is bad and you have no examples to back it up.

at least it brought up some options discussion though.

Barron

[DesertCat]

BTW, Walt Mossberg has a reputation as a tough reviewer.

The first company I ever worked for was one of the original software developers for the Apple Macintosh (the founders went to the original developers conference and Bill Gates was one of the like a dozen attendees). The Mac was way overhyped, much more than the IPhone. Mossberg said today on CNBC that Apple didn't hype the IPhone at all, that it has been the blogosphere and financial analysts. 25 year olds who want to understand what really constitutes overhyping should watch this.

Apple claimed the Mac would revolutionize computing and make all other computers obsolete (just like the Lisa did. Instead, the original Mac was a failure as a desktop for the business world, they kept on using their DOS computers for Lotus 1-2-3 and WordPerfect. Despite that huge failure, Apple still made a ton of money selling Mac's for DTP applications.

[RiverDancer]

Don't trade options directionally. If you feel that the market will become more volatile for some reason then they are a buy, otherwise they are a sale. If you want to pick a direction do it in the underlying. Most of the time when prices fall so does implied option volatility, this means that buying puts in a declining market isn't a free lunch. Calls are usually priced to a premium because of the unlimited upside, and because implied volatility is expected to rise as prices soar. This call-skew means that you pay a steep Vig for trading directionally with option on the upside. It is usually a mistake to try and use options for something other than they were meant for --hedging.