bet river when only chance to win even tought u think ure beat?

[Nottom]

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Villain has KK. He induced you to bluff the river.

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FYP

[tyler_cracker]

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Are people serious about donking the flop HU?

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[Clinger]

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Yea, I'd b/f the flop. Check/fold the turn if my flop bet is called, and check/call the river if he checks behind on the turn.

Why's that bad? I'm still learning too.

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I don't like a donk, but I'm open to suggestions if someone can give me a good argument for it.

Basically, I think it gives your hand away unless you donk Ax here too, since I would expect a lot of people (including unknowns) to check/raise AK/AQs here, and really any hand worthwhile in most 2/3 way pots. Also, your bet is going to have to accomplish one of two things: either get called by a worse hand or get a better hand to fold. The only worse hand that stands a chance of calling is JJ, and depending on how many hands the read in the OP is based on, JJ may not be in Villain's range. So, you're going to need to fold out KK/QQ. It may happen, but I wouldn't expect it on the flop because I can't remember ever seeing someone cap PF and fold the flop for 1 bet closing the action.

What this means is that you are giving up too early on the valuebetting if he has JJ (and lose the entire pot if he bets when you give up on the turn) and are getting owned by AA/TT/AK if you do decide to fire again on the turn which you're most likely going to have to do if you want to have a chance of getting a fold from KK/QQ

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Well let's say his range is AA-TT and AK.
AA = 3 combos
KK = 6
QQ = 1
JJ = 6
TT = 3
AK = 12

AA AK and TT are stickin around, but 13/31 of the time, our opponent is afraid of us too. He's 16/5 preflop, probably has at least some idea of what he's doing. If he decides we have him beat since we did 3bet him pf, and folds just a third of the time, the bluff is profitable in this 8 SB pot.

I'm including JJ here, because even though we're ahead of that, he has position on us, and there's no real way for us to take advantage of this out of position. It's not like we can milk JJ for any money anyway.

Maybe my one third estimate is too optimistic even for a player like this. Knowing he has bet or raised preflop and folded the flop for one bet would be nice, but I'm not sure we need that against a 16/5.

On the other hand, maybe there's a more profitable way to play this than bluffing and giving up, or a better spot to do it. Obviously, I'm not betting if Villain is a fish.


Unrelated note, with AK or AQ, I would donk this flop--no guarantee he bets here, and I want money going in.

[NIX]

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Well let's say his range is AA-TT and AK.
AA = 3 combos
KK = 6
QQ = 1
JJ = 6
TT = 3
AK = 12

AA AK and TT are stickin around, but 13/31 of the time, our opponent is afraid of us too. He's 16/5 preflop, probably has at least some idea of what he's doing. If he decides we have him beat since we did 3bet him pf, and folds just a third of the time, the bluff is profitable in this 8 SB pot.

I'm including JJ here, because even though we're ahead of that, he has position on us, and there's no real way for us to take advantage of this out of position. It's not like we can milk JJ for any money anyway.

Maybe my one third estimate is too optimistic even for a player like this. Knowing he has bet or raised preflop and folded the flop for one bet would be nice, but I'm not sure we need that against a 16/5.

On the other hand, maybe there's a more profitable way to play this than bluffing and giving up, or a better spot to do it. Obviously, I'm not betting if Villain is a fish.


Unrelated note, with AK or AQ, I would donk this flop--no guarantee he bets here, and I want money going in.

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Villain may be scared of your donk those 13/31 times if that is his capping range, but it's only 7 of those that we want to fold. Villain folding JJ to our flop donk isn't good because we get no value (although that is probably overshadowed by the value we get if he folds KK/QQ). Also, raising preflop and folding to a flop donk and capping preflop and folding to a flop donk are quite different. When Villain is capping, he's going to have a much better hand and may have a harder time folding it, especially if he's the kind of guy who thinks 'hey, I have KK and that's a good hand, so I'm showing it down.' or 'hey, I have KK and that other dude donked, I'll see if he is serious and bets again on the turn.' He may be scared of you, but Villain being scared and playing passive doesn't help us here. You need Villain to be scared and fold a better hand and I think it's unlikely to occur on the flop. In my experience, I really don't recall like anyone capping preflop and folding the flop to a donk bet HU closing the action, and without a read, I don't think I'm gonna give anyone enough credit to do so.

To be honest, depending on how many hands those stats are over, my more profitable way to play this hand may be to simply check/fold the flop and save that 1SB to bluff at another pot.

If you do routinely donk a flop like this with AK/AQ, it will give you some deception in the long run when you have QQ, but I don't think it's the most profitable way to play those hand. People c-bet all the time, especially after capping preflop, and super especially when heads up, so that you have a lot of opportunities to check/raise. If an opponent is showdown bound, you are getting the minimum amount of value out of your hand, since you miss out on the extra bet you can pick up when you check/raise. If an opponent is on the weak/tight side, you're just offering him a chance to shutdown or fold much earlier than if you waited to get a raise in somewhere rather than donking at first opportunity.

[Xhad]

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Are people serious about donking the flop HU?

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Yea, I'd b/f the flop. Check/fold the turn if my flop bet is called, and check/call the river if he checks behind on the turn.

Why's that bad? I'm still learning too.

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Because you're smoked against this guy's range (and doing pretty poorly even against a more normal player's range) and Ax/flopped sets don't donk this flop, come on. Just c/f the flop guys.3

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AA AK and TT are stickin around, but 13/31 of the time, our opponent is afraid of us too. He's 16/5 preflop, probably has at least some idea of what he's doing. If he decides we have him beat since we did 3bet him pf, and folds just a third of the time, the bluff is profitable in this 8 SB pot.

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Preflop nit and postflop nit are not the same thing. And if he has a clue he knows you would check this flop if you had KK beat which means you're only bluffing out worse hands.

[tehox]

Interesting hand. I think if you are going to play you have to donk the flop. Your only chance of making money post flop is getting KK to fold. And to do so you are going to have to bet the flop and the turn. So you are sticking in 3SB to win 9.5SB (assuming he calls flop and folds turn with KK). If his range is AA/AK/KK (not unreasonable UTG+1 raise/cap range based on his stats, depends on sample size), you have the best hand like 30% of the time. So it is close, but I think if you factor in that he doesn't always fold KK I would just c/f the flop.

As played on the river, you might get a bad player to fold KK, but I doubt it.

[Clinger]

I see what you mean now. And I understand a bit better why a c/r is best here against most players, even most TAGs.

Now that I think about it, the only times I c/r at all is to protect my hand or to trap the field for an extra bet when I'm on a big draw. I should start looking for situations like this one.

Thanks [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]