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#21
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[ QUOTE ] I like a flop call/checkraise turn. [/ QUOTE ] what about a flop cap, turn checkraise? get the best of both streets! [/ QUOTE ] I don't think this ever works when our hand is good |
#22
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Flop, nothing wrong with leading... not a time to slowplay.
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#23
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I was curious to see if anyone would advocate a check/raise here but it doesn't seem likely. Feel free to try for the sake of discussion. Anyway, I'm probably going to sleep soon so I'm gonna post the next bit of axn: PokerStars 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums) Preflop: Hero is SB with 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. UTG calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, CO calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero completes, BB checks. Flop: (5 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">CO 3-bets</font>, Hero... [/ QUOTE ] Caps... for value. |
#24
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Flop decision 2: Yuck. I think we're in deep trouble with CO's 3 bet. I know he could be running supercold, but I don't think he's 3betting with just AJ. [/ QUOTE ] QFT. I'm super weak-tight here and scared of a set of 4s or a set of 5s. This means 2 of our boat-outs are counterfeited and we're dead to a J, as I can't put any of the villain on JJ, regarding PF action. |
#25
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I lead the flop the first time and cap the second time.
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#26
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Meh. Cap for value and don't go to bed in the middle of a frikken play along.
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#27
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i prefer to cap now for value and to see how everyone responds, rather than get cute on the turn and maybe have an unexpected expensive surprise
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#28
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I'm not sold on the cap, guys. Did you guys see that this guy has a 6% VPIP, and a 3% PFR on top of a 1.6 Agg? 150 hands isn't a huge sample, but it's respectable. Our error bars on that 6% are +/-2%. This is approximately the nittiest nit to ever nit. I'm really not sure how often AJ or KJs is in this guy's range, esp. since UTG's raise and MP1's cold call indicate a J for one or both of them a fair bit on this board with few draws. How often does an ubernit have a case J here and then 3bet it? I'd estimate 3-4 hands' worth at most, and I wouldn't be surprised if it's more like 1-2 hands' worth. I'm thinking that CO's range is sets at full value and maybe overpairs at half value tops, which is pretty grim for us. The other thing to bear in mind is that while normally we'd have 2 outs against 55 and 44, we might be drawing to just one or even 0 outs against them because of how likely that one or both of those J's is in the hands of one of the monkeys in the middle. HU, I'd definitely just call down, but here, we do have a nice overlay from all the other clowns. The question of whether or not to cap is a question of how often this guy gets tricky w/ QQ+. If he can have an overpair at half-valued hands, i.e., he limps them preflop 50% of the time even after 2 limpers, then a cap is +EV with this overlay. If he's smart enough to raise QQ+ after limpers 100%, then there's a great chance we're drawing dead. I just call here.
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#29
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Ok, here goes.
PokerStars 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums) Preflop: Hero is SB with 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. UTG calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, CO calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero completes, BB checks. Flop: (5 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">CO 3-bets</font>, Hero calls, BB folds, UTG calls, MP1 calls. Turn: (9 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font> Hero... Well, I called on the flop because I basically was pretty surprised by the way both these guys played. Figured I was crushed or pretty far ahead, so I decided to reevaluate on the turn. |
#30
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wook, i'm not sold on the limped overpair theory, i think nit raises those, but lower set i can see. with a vulnerable hand like this i'd rather go wild on an early street so potentially i don't have to go as wild on a later street.
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