Another 2500 6h hand vs Colson10

[curtains]

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My respect for colson just went WAYYY down.

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I dunno I think his push is fine. AJs is exactly the type of hand you'd want to do this with IMO.

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I dont think pushing 20bbs with anything is correct.

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I dunno I think its not so bad in an isolated hand like this. When you raise a normal amount you really really don't want action, and moving allin for 20x BB is definitely +EV with AJs here, it's just a question of whether it's more +EV than raising to 400-500 and possibly putting yourself in many awkward postflop situations.

The other problem is of course metagame stuff. But in the grand scheme of things I don't think its so bad and if they all fold we increase our stack by 1/8th, which is pretty signifigant.

I believe it would not be very good to open allin if there was no limper, because then when we make a standard raise to say 3x the BB, we are much more likely to get played back at by a weaker hand, which is of course good for us. It's much less likely to occur once we raise to 500, which is probably about what we should raise to eliminate the caller, however we still can't raise to 500 and fold to a reraise IMO, as it's generally a bad strategy to put in 1/4th of your stack with the idea of folding to a reraise. So the main question to ask is whether we want to encourage action or not, and I think we definitely don't want any action, thus allin makes some sense, despite being unorthodox.

[Doylestown]

No mention of the bb? His style and stack size? Is he savvy enough to squeeze you out if you just flat call?

If he's nitty I just call here, if he's capable of a heroic play I shove. (This is with your read on limper being weak obviously)

I think I treat 88 the same, start to get queezy w/ lower pairs than that as I'd want to think I could still be dominating some of Carl's range.

[sinderg]

cold call. its a massive sign of strength, way more then shoving! which is crazy.

[uclabruinz]

I would think you are looking at something like this:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.813% 42.88% 00.94% 295145304 6437874.00 { TT-77, AJs+, AJo+ }
Hand 1: 56.187% 55.25% 00.94% 380325156 6437874.00 { 99 }

I don't like Carl's shove at all.

[curtains]

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I would think you are looking at something like this:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.813% 42.88% 00.94% 295145304 6437874.00 { TT-77, AJs+, AJo+ }
Hand 1: 56.187% 55.25% 00.94% 380325156 6437874.00 { 99 }

I don't like Carl's shove at all.

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Btw I want to hear some reasons why people dont like his shove. Do you:

1. Believe it's less +EV than a normal raise

2. Believe it creates some kind of metagame problems.


I suspect you will be very hard pressed to prove point 1 beyond a reasonable doubt, but I'd like someone to try.

[uclabruinz]

Curtains,

It's obviously standard if there are antes or the limper had raised instead of limping. I like to save my "resteal-appearing" shoves for when there's much more juice in the pot, so yeah this is partly metagame. Risking 2050 to win 250, it just doesn't seem worth it, but I haven't run the math nor do I have the time. If it's +EV with AJ it's probably +EV with just about any two.

[curtains]

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Curtains,

It's obviously standard if there are antes or the limper had raised instead of limping. I like to save my "resteal-appearing" shoves for when there's much more juice in the pot, so yeah this is partly metagame. Risking 2050 to win 250, it just doesn't seem worth it, but I haven't run the math nor do I have the time. If it's +EV with AJ it's probably +EV with just about any two.

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No, AJs has a huge amount of value when called by hands like....for example....hmmmm 99? Also we have an ace, so AQ, AK, AA less likely to be out there.


Anyway I concede metagame stuff, but honestly in live tournamnets I don't think such factors are so important. You can always do something once against a table full of people you will probably never play with again after a few hours.

[MLG]

i understand that the shove is awkward but I don't see how you can call it bad, i mean what other option do you think is really markedly better? also, I like it (as the first time) for metagame purposes.

[uclabruinz]

Curtains,

Here's how AJs holds up against 99+, AQ+ if he calls with that range:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 66.582% 65.32% 01.27% 241576356 4680708.00 { 99+, AQs+, AQo+ }
Hand 1: 33.418% 32.15% 01.27% 118919892 4680708.00 { AJs }

Here's how 65s holds up:

Hand 0: 69.093% 68.86% 00.24% 320699560 1097636.00 { 99+, AQs+, AQo+ }
Hand 1: 30.907% 30.67% 00.24% 142851856 1097636.00 { 65s }

Maybe you can run the math on villain's ranges but I submit that if AJs is +EV so are most other hands.

MLG, you'll have to explain why overshoving with AJ and having to show shortly before antes kick in is good for metagame, because I don't see it.

Anyway, I didn't mean to say Carl's shove was awful. I said I didn't like it. I just think it's unnecessary, marginally +EV at best, and bad for metagame.

[curtains]

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Curtains,

Here's how AJs holds up against 99+, AQ+ if he calls with that range:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 66.582% 65.32% 01.27% 241576356 4680708.00 { 99+, AQs+, AQo+ }
Hand 1: 33.418% 32.15% 01.27% 118919892 4680708.00 { AJs }

Here's how 65s holds up:

Hand 0: 69.093% 68.86% 00.24% 320699560 1097636.00 { 99+, AQs+, AQo+ }
Hand 1: 30.907% 30.67% 00.24% 142851856 1097636.00 { 65s }

Maybe you can run the math on villain's ranges but I submit that if AJs is +EV so are most other hands.

MLG, you'll have to explain why overshoving with AJ and having to show shortly before antes kick in is good for metagame, because I don't see it.

Anyway, I didn't mean to say Carl's shove was awful. I said I didn't like it. I just think it's unnecessary, marginally +EV at best, and bad for metagame.

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AJs runs a ton better than 65s! First off you have 3% more equity which is huge. Second of all you are called by AQ, AK and AA a ton less often because of card duplication. The results of your findings are that pushing with AJs is much superior than pushing with 65s.

Also how are they going to take advantage of the fact that they saw you shoving with AJ? It's not like you are shoving A7o. They now feel comfortable calling your allins with AQ and AK which they would have called anyway? I mean you actually have a good hand, next time when you push with KTo, they will perhaps fold their A6s because they remember you had AJ the last time you made a big overbet allin.