5.5: Maniac goes all in at the beginning, call justified?

[Guthrie]

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with which hand would you ever be a 95% fav?!

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AAA of course.

[BradleyT]

Say your base ITM is 40%.

If you're taking 60/40's then you need to ITM with 3000 chips 66.6% of the time to equal your base ITM. I would think that's very possible because A) you have 2x the chips and B) there's a person knocked out C) your firsts and seconds when you have 3000 chips should be higher than normal so really ITM is a bad base indicator to use.

[deepextragully]

Kevin makes a good point that you will not actually know that you are 60/40 as opposed to a flip but saying that taking 60/40's when you KNOW you are 60/40 (which obv you can't) is theroetically wrong. I gota side with dfan on this one.

[Prodigy54321]

I'm calling with AKo, AKs, AA, KK, QQ, and JJ..given your "read"

[Kevin8423]

Depending on your edge over the field then you should definitley not be taking every slightly favored race you can find early on in the tournament. If you are no better than any of your opponents and won't have an advantage when it comes to push fold time then obviously you should take any 60/40 you can find.

[Jimmy James]

i'd fold. no need to go broke on the first few hands.

[jimmytrick]

Not "calling" with AK here is not bad at this level because on average there are a couple other donks in there that are dead money. In the early stages I don't view my equity in the prize pool of a low level sng based on the chips I hold, but rather, my chips and my reasonable expectation of the share of the donk's chips that I "own" simply by playing correctly.

This dead money factor is real and has to play; insofar as making equity calcs.

You might argue that in order to realize the "dead money equity" one must play the AK in this case. Not so. Allowing yourself to bust out 40% of the time in the early blind levels against this level of competion is just throwing away your edge.

If you want to argue against the dead money equity concept, then explain how it is that, upon registering in two tourneys, a $5.50 and a $550.00, that we expect a lesser ROI from the $550 unless its based on the competition. If it is, as I argue, then my 1500 chips in the $5.50 are worth a greater share of the prize pool than in the $550 therefore:

You simply can't calculate this with ICM unless you weight it to include the dead money.

So, you shouldn't call the all in with AK.

This sort of skill difference narrows as the blinds increase and a pure math ICM becomes correct as it does.

My $.02

[React1oN]

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Calling this is fine IMO, but I expect a lot of people to like folding.

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[mortimo]

I fold if I hate money

[donkeykong2]

... we fold when we have to call 1000 to win 2400 and are a 60% favorite on average. ??? dont expect to get a better spot [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img].