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#21
06-18-2007, 12:07 PM
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Re: Hmmmmm...set fold
[ QUOTE ]
Can someone please explain why value-shoving AK on that river would be bad ? I think it's a super easy shove tbh. [/ QUOTE ] Obviously, if OP sucked, Villain shoving AK would be totally fine. Bad players are felting most 2 pairs even after the flush gets there. Better players are not going to call with many worse hands. 
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#22
06-18-2007, 12:12 PM
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Re: Hmmmmm...set fold
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Shoving with less than A7 or maybe AK is really horrible imo. Shoving AQ is just super-gross. [/ QUOTE ] well, id just assume i have the best hand here, so i'm raising [/ QUOTE ] Plenty of people block this river with hands as strong as 2pair and sets in my experience, even flushes.
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#23
06-18-2007, 12:18 PM
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Re: Hmmmmm...set fold
I think you're beat.
His check on that flop is either a set or complete garbage..That flop is a nice continuation spot, and with any hand besides a monster (Even AK) I think he cont' bets that flop. I put him on something like JsQs or 9s10s...A hand that started out as trash and then seemed like good value to call your $35 with a flush draw in hopes that you hit the Ace on the turn. Id say definite fold if you have the discipline..Cant see AK pushing there after a reraised preflop and 2 pretty sizable bets. Prediction: JsQs or 9s10s
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#24
06-18-2007, 12:27 PM
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Re: Hmmmmm...set fold
Villain will most likely bet this flop with AA or KK. AK often raises the turn, but calling is certainly reasonable. Abreu's analysis and Hoopster's ranges are pretty good. I call here and feel quite good about it.
Regarding Hoopster's last post, I would avoid sweeping comments like that. Without history maaaaybe this applies, but often times, the better the players are, the more likely they are to felt lightly. With more history, it would be easier estimate how often villain has air/AK here. If he is more likely to bluff in BvB or assume he is called lightly in BvB (value bet lighter), yada, but it isn't too important here. You gotta call, IMO. Dan, good to see ya back!
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#25
06-18-2007, 12:28 PM
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Re: Hmmmmm...set fold
Hmm, I just canīt see that he has you beat here unless he was reraising light with a suited connector w/ spades. I mean, this flop really is draw heavy and lots of draws can hit and lots of scarecards that kill your action can come on the turn if you give a free card. Correct me if I am wrong, but I think a decent player will bet this flop almost 100% if he has a hand. He might check behind a missed AK here, but I just donīt see him checking a strong made hand on this board.
With respect to this and the turn/river-action, I can pretty much only seem him playing AK or the rare random spade suited connector-type hand like this. Your river bet looks kind of weak and the board is quite bluff-friendly. He could think he is value-pushing AK here also. I think its a call, since your hand is very likely to be best considering the action. Yes, sometimes you will lose to rr-spades, but you will be good more often I think.
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#26
06-18-2007, 12:28 PM
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Re: Hmmmmm...set fold
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Shoving with less than A7 or maybe AK is really horrible imo. Shoving AQ is just super-gross. [/ QUOTE ] well, id just assume i have the best hand here, so i'm raising [/ QUOTE ] Plenty of people block this river with hands as strong as 2pair and sets in my experience, even flushes. [/ QUOTE ] Saying you're value-shoving AQ+ here as villain against a TAG is just absurd
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#27
06-18-2007, 12:35 PM
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Re: Hmmmmm...set fold
The funny thing is that almost everybody is saying either "fold, you're beat" or "you have the best hand, call". His raise is only 1/2 of the pot, so we're geting 3:1 and those are pretty good odds in this spot.
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#28
06-18-2007, 12:38 PM
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Re: Hmmmmm...set fold
[ QUOTE ]
The funny thing is that almost everybody is saying either "fold, you're beat" or "you have the best hand, call". His raise is only 1/2 of the pot, so we're geting 3:1 and those are pretty good odds in this spot. [/ QUOTE ] obv call
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#29
06-18-2007, 12:38 PM
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Re: Hmmmmm...set fold
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Shoving with less than A7 or maybe AK is really horrible imo. Shoving AQ is just super-gross. [/ QUOTE ] well, id just assume i have the best hand here, so i'm raising [/ QUOTE ] Plenty of people block this river with hands as strong as 2pair and sets in my experience, even flushes. [/ QUOTE ] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] but if they're 'blocking', that means they're gonna fold yo
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#30
06-18-2007, 12:41 PM
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Re: Hmmmmm...set fold
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Shoving with less than A7 or maybe AK is really horrible imo. Shoving AQ is just super-gross. [/ QUOTE ] well, id just assume i have the best hand here, so i'm raising [/ QUOTE ] Plenty of people block this river with hands as strong as 2pair and sets in my experience, even flushes. [/ QUOTE ] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] but if they're 'blocking', that means they're gonna fold yo [/ QUOTE ] I mean 'block-type bets.' People make these bets with relatively marginal hands and still call when you raise.
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