turn options on a weird board.

[Prevaricator]

[ QUOTE ]
potting looks more like a real hand. pushing raises the suspicion factor to a degree that AA/KK will more likely be able to muster the balls make a call. if i had a set or the nuts here i would often push for this reason. (i realize this is exploitable, but not by that many players).

[/ QUOTE ]

i originally thought push to represent the nuts, but i guess potting it does the trick, although IMO they are more likely to muster the balls to push the rest in hoping you were bluffing than if you just shove all of it in. Pretty player dependent though.

[whitelime]

[/ QUOTE ]Vs spades we don't want to give free card

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is a poorly understood concept by many. The whole "he could be drawing so I have to bet the turn" line of thinking.

The math is very complicated and requires a ton of assumptions but in general, you will extract a lot of money from players betting their busted draws on the river so it serves to balance itself out against the times he hits because you gave him a free card.

I'm not saying it's more profitable to give a free card and induce bluffs every time but that it's a much closer decision than it seems.

I don't think villain as described folds a better hand than ours so the only thing potting/pushing the turn accomplishes is making draws fold and getting better hands to call.

[lapoker17]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not saying it's more profitable to give a free card and induce bluffs every time but that it's a much closer decision than it seems.



[/ QUOTE ]

this is definitely something good to think about against certain opponents.

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think villain as described folds a better hand than ours so the only thing potting/pushing the turn accomplishes is making draws fold and getting better hands to call.


[/ QUOTE ]

i just don't think this is correct. if he liked his hand as much as this assumes, i think this guy 3 bets the flop. and as he has not been called a moron, i think we can assume he is able to lay down 1 pair. he also does not strike me as a guy waiting for a safe turn to c/r all in - that seems a little higher level than where he is.

[snagglepuss]

fsu,

this is definitely a weird tricky spot where the decision hinges on a large number of assumptions that likely cannot be pinned down with enough confidence to say any of the options are clearly superior to the others.

in the long run, it is possible that this decision is neutral between pushing, betting less, and checking behind.

i think the fact that there were two other players in the pot on this coordinated flop and you raised into both of them shows a fair amount of strength. this will lend more credence to your raise and give you a slight bump in folding equity against one pair hands on the turn, so i continue on with it and get the chips in.

[cardsharkk04]

So if he's not folding a better hand, and folding a draw to a pot bet/push on the turn, then why not bet half the pot, like $500.

[lapoker17]

[ QUOTE ]
So if he's not folding a better hand, and folding to a pot bet/push on the turn

[/ QUOTE ]

typos? i dont really know what you are saying.


i clearly stated that i am trying to get him to fold a better hand and think it is a real possiblility. this turn bet is certainly not a value bet.

[Karakaz]

I believe I would have to agre with Vanveen in this scenario.

We do not want to inflate the pot more than absolutely necessary at this point, however we want;

1) Folding equity
2) To charge draws
3) Keep effective stacks large compared to pot
4) Info

Given this, I believe the correct option is a bet of $450-$500. Enough to give overpairs a very nasty decision on river (if they don't dump it right there) with effective stacks still large enough to give substantial folding equity.

[AJFenix]

[ QUOTE ]
The math is very complicated and requires a ton of assumptions but in general, you will extract a lot of money from players betting their busted draws on the river so it serves to balance itself out against the times he hits because you gave him a free card.

I'm not saying it's more profitable to give a free card and induce bluffs every time but that it's a much closer decision than it seems.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, giving a free card vs certain players here could be much closer than it seems. I am not betting because of "he could be drawing so I have to bet the turn", I would rather not give a free card to a spade because I do NOT think the positives of giving a free card to the draw portion of his range are going to outweigh the negatives here, although like you said this may be much closer than it seems. On top of that though, here on the turn the rest of his hand range are better 1pair hands than yours and you have strong FE against them. I guess you would need a more accurate weighted estimate on how often he holds either draw or overpair, and a better estimate on fold equity/bluff frequency to answer this question. I think fold equity is v. good here, you don't.

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think villain as described folds a better hand than ours

[/ QUOTE ]

As I said, I really disagree with this. Hes gotta be capable of folding 1-pair on this disgusting board with this action a very significant % of the time.

[schifty]

dump it all? You mean get it in? I strongly feel that this is a check. this guy raises small utg and leads approx 100 into 240 and calls a raise. Hmm, if he does have a draw, I think this hand is easy to evaluate. If you check behind on the turn and he still comes alive on a spade river, not much doubt about that. You're not folding to a ch-raise here, I assume. So, if you do get your money in now (he decides not to lay QQ-AA), you are in bad, bad shape. What kinds of draws are you trying to extract value from? I dont' think he can call a pot-sized bet here with spades, he can't think he'll get paid off.
Becomes apparent that the only arg is for folding eq. You think you get QQ-AA to fold 4/5 times? It has been my limited experience to not try to make money in this game by forcing out overpairs...

[LyinKing]

you don't think AA or KK could check turn to induce a big bet as some seem to be advocating?