Can Now Divulge That Stock and Who Recommended It

[CallMeIshmael]

Evan,


Buy low, sell high.

[J_V]

The stock market is obviously very efficient. When someone whose opinion you value alludes to having some sort've inside information or a strong reason to believe a stock is a really good buy, you should buy it.

He only has to be right a small percentage of the time, since if he is wrong or has no information you aren't taking much the worst of it. And my best guess is that someone like Jay Heimowitz is gonna be right a lot of the time.

I guess this isn't related to market understanding as much as reading the conversation and inferring he has some type of information not widely available - but it's pertinent to realize that buying a totally random stock is not hugely -EV.

Essentially it's "free edge" versus the market.

[J_V]

His point has nothing to do with the stock market and is more of a life lesson of getting the best of it. Maybe the wrong forum, but pretty valuable if you've never thought about this.

[Evan]

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The stock market is obviously very efficient.

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Agreed.

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When someone whose opinion you value alludes to having some sort've inside information or a strong reason to believe a stock is a really good buy, you should buy it.

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I think I agree with the basics of what you're saying here.

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He only has to be right a small percentage of the time, since if he is wrong or has no information you aren't taking much the worst of it.

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Debatable, but not really important right now.

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And my best guess is that someone like Jay Heimowitz is gonna be right a lot of the time.

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I don't know who that is, but I'll assume you're right and again, this isn't the point of my disagreement.

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I guess this isn't related to market understanding as much as reading the conversation and inferring he has some type of information not widely available

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Okay, I think it's clear that this has nothing to do with thinking about the stock market. I also don't think anything in this thread will make anyone any better or worse at doing this, so I don't see what there is to appreciate.

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but it's pertinent to realize that buying a totally random stock is not hugely -EV.

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I think if we're going to talk about people improperly thinking about the stock market this is probably a good place to start.

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Essentially it's "free edge" versus the market.

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Okay, I have no problem with that.


I guess what it really comes down to is that I don't think that any of what you said here is of much importance. I definitely don't think that because I don't think this thread is valuable I think about the stock market improperly. I just don't see why my opinions about what some dude says in a poker room have any bearing on my understanding of markets. I also don't see why I should care what some guy said a year or however long ago in an offhand conversation with no potential for me to learn anything.

I really can't figure out why you think there's any value here

[Evan]

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His point has nothing to do with the stock market and is more of a life lesson of getting the best of it. Maybe the wrong forum, but pretty valuable if you've never thought about this.

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How is this a life lesson?

If anything, "trust whatever smart people tell you and take financial risks to back up that trust" seems like a pretty terrible life lesson.

[David Sklansky]

Neither one of you are mentioning the hesitation and the turning around. If he had just said "I like SAPE" it wouldn't have been nearly as strong.

[Evan]

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Neither one of you are mentioning the hesitation and the turning around. If he had just said "I like SAPE" it wouldn't have been nearly as strong.

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Okay: People that hesitate before telling you something are worth listening to. Lesson learned.


Seriously, I feel like this whole thread is some kind of big joke on me.

[David Sklansky]

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Neither one of you are mentioning the hesitation and the turning around. If he had just said "I like SAPE" it wouldn't have been nearly as strong.

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Okay: People that hesitate before telling you something are worth listening to. Lesson learned.


Seriously, I feel like this whole thread is some kind of big joke on me.

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Not just hesitate. Hesitate and turn around. I'll let others elaborate

[Evan]

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Neither one of you are mentioning the hesitation and the turning around. If he had just said "I like SAPE" it wouldn't have been nearly as strong.

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Okay: People that hesitate before telling you something are worth listening to. Lesson learned.


Seriously, I feel like this whole thread is some kind of big joke on me.

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Not just hesitate. Hesitate and turn around. I'll let others elaborate

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Okay.

Life Lesson #1: If someone hesitates AND turns around before telling you something, listen.

With gems like this it's a shame the Sklansky Forum is closed.