A Good BB/100 at 100NL FR

[SimaoMacaco]

Great, naturally, i think mine is -2BB/100 of where it should be. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[diebitter]

OH GOD I MISSING SINGLE TABLING NL200

[img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[bottomset]

anything positive is good, though the closer you are to 0 the more likely you should be playing lower

[CaptVimes]

[ QUOTE ]
Here's the sobering news for you 20K hand guys.

After 100,000 hands, you will be about +/- 2BB/100 of your actual winrate.

[/ QUOTE ]

Would this be at a specific level? I suppose combining stats would muddy the water.

[SimaoMacaco]

Oh geez yeah, thats a great point Vimes.

How many hands do you play at a level before you move up due to your bankroll being sufficient for the next level?

I logged maybe 45k at NL50, 25k at NL100, niether is a good sample of a WR and since my game evolved to suit the new level, its hard to tell what is working and what is not over the whole sample.

The fear is that a major ass spanking could occur and you will not know until it does =)

Tools such as pokerEV help to guage your play adjusted for variance according to your equity in the hand. However, this tool does not determine hot or cold decks, missing sets or too many sets etc. There are other tools that can to some extend.

I agree, anything > 0 is good, for comfort its nice to be running above that so you are protected from an ass spanking.

[threads13]

Can I nominate this to be linked in the master sticky?

[iponnet]

FR NL100

a "GOOD" wr is $4/100 or 2ptbb/100
anything above 3-4ptbb/100 is GREAT

a sample size of 100K hands is enough to get a pretty good idea of your WR,

"IF YOU PLAY THE SAME WAY ALL THE TIME"

that means same amount of tilt, same aggression, same pre and post flop VPIP, and etc... people that have more than 1ptbb/100 difference from 100K hands to another are not playing the same way all the time

[1p0kerboy]

Other factors need to be mentioned in the equation as well.

Someone mentioned that the more tables you play, the lower your winrate is going to be. This is true. If I went through my database, I could find a bunch of places where I folded in +EV situations. I've folded aces preflop more times than I care to admit. Some are misclicks, of course, and many are when I time out due to the fact that I am in a big hand and have a critical decision to make on another table. There are other problems too. I could play a bit looser if I were playing less tables. Regardless of this, it is still in my best interest to play many tables. After all, it is better to maximize the money I am making per hour than increase my winrate.

Another factor is table selection, and this goes much deeper than many of you may realize.

One part of this is the site that you are playing on. Some of the smaller sites have great, but few, games going on. The reason the games are so good is because the majority of the best players multi-table, and this option is obviously not available at these sites. This is accentuted post UIGIA because it's difficult to move money around. But also you must consider the rewards that each site is offering. It is oftentimes better to play at a site that has a better rewards program or rakeback percentage even if it means sacrificing a little bit in game quality (or winrate).


Another part of table selection is the time of day that you play. And I think this is much more important than everybody realizes. Certain times of the day are simply jucier than other times of the day. I have found that at night my winrate is much better than it is during the day. Similarly, morning are much better than afternoons. When you are playing is likely to have an effect on your winrate.

In summary, $/hr >>> ptBB/100

[D.L.M.]

[ QUOTE ]
Here's the sobering news for you 20K hand guys.

After 100,000 hands, you will be about +/- 2BB/100 of your actual winrate.

[/ QUOTE ]

dont put it this way pokerboy it makes you sound like a moron.

basically this means (and im sure you all know this)

that in the most extreme cases some people will be -+ 2 ptbb/100 of their winrate over 100k hands. the majority of people will be pretty close to their winrate with less and less of the population of players the farther out you go away from neutral.

so like 50% of players winrate is within .25 ptbb/100 of their true winrate
20% are off by .25-1.0ptbb
%15 are off buy 1-1.5
10% are off buy 1.5-1.75
and 5% are off by 1.75-2.0

thats not excatly right, but maybe it will help make somepeople feel better so just like 20 buy in downswings are possible; they only happen to a small number of us who play alot of hands and get the oppurtunity to have such huge sample of hands to experiance everything that variance has to offer.

[Phresh]

Winrates aren't even useful anyway, they only reflect the past and aren't any concrete indication of what your future success will be.