Live 4/8 AKs in CO

[StrictlyStrategy]

AT is never folding on the flop or turn.

KT isn't either.

I think this is fine, you're playing against three idiots and one of them has at worst AK and the other two don't seem to care, I think you played this just fine aside from PF which honestly is embarrassing. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[jjshabado]

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Do you believe AT or KT is going to fold?

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WTF? You seem to think of all of these situations as dichotomous when they are in fact all continuous. I expect AT and KT to fold frequently, not always. I except worse Aces and worse Kings to fold even more frequently here.

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Really? In a 4/8 live game I expect people to fold TPTK way less often then frequently.


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Do you believe either of those hands are likely given the preflop action and the flop/turn action so far?

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Again, WTF? It's hard to even know how to respond to this. Your reasoning is inconsistent. First, you say that betting is wrong because these hands won't fold to a raise, and now you're saying that betting is wrong because these hands aren't out against you. 7 players saw the flop in this hand. This fact alone should tell you that these players do not understand how to play tight against a raise/3-bet. Any 5 of the limpers could very easily hold the hands that I mentioned: AT, A8, A2, KT, K8, A7.

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There's no inconsistency there. I'm giving you two reasons why betting isn't that helpful here. First, its unlikely you're buying yourself any outs because they're unlikely to fold. Second, its not likely that you're up against some of the hands you said.

Even loose/passive players will generally bet or raise TPTK on the flop. Thats a pretty good clue you're not up against those hands.


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So there's a small chance that you're going to buy yourself 2 outs by getting an Ax that has a pair to fold, but I don't think its that likely.

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Where do you get 2 outs from? I'd say you get somewhere between 3 and 6 outs.

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This doesn't make any sense. What do you think "buying outs" means? If we're buying an out it means we're making someone fold an A or K that had us reverse dominated. For instance if we make A8 fold, we've only bought 2 outs. We may have 3-6 outs, but we only gained 2 from making that person fold. You're NEVER buying more than 4 outs, unless you get something like two pair or a straight to fold, which isn't going to happen. You're very rarely buying more than two outs because it means you had two people fold who both had you reverse dominated on different cards. And you're frequently buying no outs because those hands aren't against you, they won't fold, or someone else has you beat such that making one pair won't win anyway.

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"But I don't think its that likely" - it doesn't need to be that likely, it just has to be likely enough to make the play +EV, which it is.

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How do you figure? You're at best buying a 5-7% chance to win the pot (by gaining 2-3 extra outs) and most of the time you're not even doing that because those players aren't folding, or those hands aren't out there and you don't need to buy outs, or you're already soundly beat and getting those hands to fold doesn't matter because you're going to lose anyway to someone else.

So you stand to gain not that much. What's the risk? You end up putting in two bets against the button who has you soundly beat.

[bernie]

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Where do you get 2 outs from? I'd say you get somewhere between 3 and 6 outs.

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I think 3-6 outs might be a little over-optimistic. 2 outs is probably about right. Very doubtful you're freeing up both of your overcards in this spot as 1 of your overcards is likely ok anyways.

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I expect AT and KT to fold frequently, not always.

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In these games, it will be very unlikely anyone with a top pair is folding, especially in a big pot. Frequently isn't exactly the word I'd use.

That said, I still think a turn bet is ok. You just have to think of what exactly your trying to represent here and if it will be believable. Does an overpair play this way? Would these opponents likely play an overpair faster?


They know you don't have AA or KK so the range is AK and QQ-maybe TT(their range at best, though usually it's just QQ/JJ) maybe a lower pair if their slightly observant and think you'll raise here with 99.

b

[bernie]

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You're NEVER buying more than 4 outs, unless you get something like two pair or a straight to fold, which isn't going to happen. You're very rarely buying more than two outs because it means you had two people fold who both had you reverse dominated on different cards. And you're frequently buying no outs because those hands aren't against you,

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One reason to bet could be to get the BTN to fold if he also has AK. Though he still might not fold it.

b

[jjshabado]

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You're NEVER buying more than 4 outs, unless you get something like two pair or a straight to fold, which isn't going to happen. You're very rarely buying more than two outs because it means you had two people fold who both had you reverse dominated on different cards. And you're frequently buying no outs because those hands aren't against you,

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One reason to bet could be to get the BTN to fold if he also has AK. Though he still might not fold it.

b

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True. But I think when its on us on the turn its a bit premature to put him on AK. Plus even if he folds we're still left with the other two players who are only facing 1 bet in a good sized pot.

Like I said earlier I don't think there's a big difference between check/betting here, although I definitely lean towards checking.

[Frond]

"Not capping PF was a brain fart"

"So everyone is agreed on the cap PF. I do also"

I think I got it guys.

I kind of figured that the turn would be the part of this hand that there wouldn't be one way that most would play this which is good.

I'll post the final result manana

Thanks to y'all for weighing in on this one. Helped a lot.

(PS. I have over 1000 posts because I ask lots of questions about hands etc; it's how one learns).

[tyler_cracker]

there seem to be two principal lines of thought about betting the turn:

- bet for value because we have a big draw.

the pot on the turn is 4 ways, so we contribute 25% of the money. we need >12.5 outs (approximately) to bet for value *if everyone calls*.

the problem is that not everyone is going to call. if just 1 person folds, we need 33% equity or ~16.5 outs.

by betting, we also allow someone to raise, meaning we put even more money in with an equity deficit.


- bet so button can raise and protect our hand/clean up our outs.

one of the problems with this is that if button raises, he is usually protecting *his* hand, not our hand. if he has AA/KK/TT, we are isolating ourselves against a much better hand. in these cases, we would rather pay less to draw and hope that other people come along to pay us if we river the nuts.

if he has a worse hand, like AQ or AJ, he will not raise, and the only thing our bet accomplishes is insuring that we do not get a free river card.


on account of all this, i think c/c is definitely the best turn line.

[Christian_Peters]

Yeah, those are pretty good arguments. I have re-thought my advice a bit. Sorry I got pretty heated in this post, didn't mean any office.

Best
Christian

[fishyak]

How about a little what if...

What if Frond caps PF? (as he should) I map out the balance of the hand this way...

Flop: Its on Frond to c-bet or not, not Button. Let's say Frond places the continuation bet. With hindsight, we know that he won't get raised, but if he did, it might be time to leave.

Turn gives Frond the nut flush draw and now he has reason to keep betting. Bet the turn. That should clear out a lot of hangers on.

River: It depends on how many players are left. h/u or maybe two others, do you bet? h/u I think you do.

With the advantage of hindsight, IMO this hand shows how the cap PF would help the playout of the hand and put Frond in a better position to win or know when to leave.

[StrictlyStrategy]

I think C-betting that flop sucks, there's a ton of people in who've put in many bets before the flop, you're getting checkraised here as often as you're getting it HU against a worse hand than yours.

It's almost a blessing if the button checks behind on the flop.