Bellagio Hand 2 3/6

[Ian J]

Don't really know what came over me this hand. You all are so obviously right. I'll try to cover my thoughts on the turn and river.

On the turn, the reason I elected to play my hand this way is that I know Kirby pretty damn well and he virtually never has a hand worse than AQ when he takes this line versus my line. I'm thinking his range on the turn is something like A7, AT, AJ, 89, KQ, AA, TT, 77, AK, and the occasional semibluff. Some may dispute that, but it's really what I think his range is. Obviously I should 3 bet against that range but the only problem I see is my need to call the 4 bet. That's why in the hand I decided to just call even though I was certainly in front of his range. I'm unsure of what hands he gets away from if I were to 3 bet.

Another reason I just called the turn I sort of covered in my thread on the hand vs. Devin Miller. JV made a good point about me getting overly tricky and I tend to agree with him to an extent. However, when I bet call this turn Kirby can really narrow my hand range down if I'm playing in a "normal" fashion. By doing it every once in awhile with a big hand it makes me more difficult to read IMO.

On the river, I just froze up because my plan was to c/r. It's such an obvious bet that I was really not asking about that street. Sorry if that wasn't clear.

The dark flop bet is just something I do from time to time. I'm betting anyway, right?

[Victor]

"Obviously I should 3 bet against that range"

screwing with pstove its a lot closer than you think. youre about 60/40.

also, dont you think other 2prs can be in his range? like jt, j7, t7?

[Ian J]

Forgot JT. Kirby's not all that loose but I suspect you're right and I forgot J7s and T7s. Thanks for pstoving it. Interesting spot huh how I'm only 60/40 there against my perceived hand range for him. How do you feel about seeing that and now having to call a 4 bet by him and probably check call a non pairing river because of the possibility that he has TT/77?

[Kayber2]

I don't like your plan that much. You didn't say the suits and I don't know Kirby that well but can't he have say AK of diamonds (assuming the A of diamonds isn't out there). I 3 bet here because he can have that hand, 77, TT or a strong ace.

If he has AQ or AK he's got a gutter straight draw so he can't really fold those either right? This seems like a time to 3bet call a 4th (since he could easily have KQ or 89). Then donk/call any non Q/K river.

Note: I may be bias because I did a few tricky things today that cost me a few hundred.

[Victor]

" How do you feel about seeing that and now having to call a 4 bet by him and probably check call a non pairing river because of the possibility that he has TT/77? "

if he is 4betting worse hands on the turn then it obv favors 3betting. tho if you 3bet can he get away from ak/aq?

the turn and river decisions seem really close but given the narrow hand ranges it shouldnt be too hard to sit down and count it out.

some guesses: if he is 4betting aj on the turn its better to 3bet.

if he is 4betting 77 and calling down ak/aq its better to 3bet turn.

if he is raise/calling kq on the river its better to donk.

[Ian J]

I have a suspicion that he's calling the turn 3 bet w/ AK/AQ and folding the river, but obviously I can't be sure.

[ALL1N]

I'm really surprised that people are putting one pair hands or even the worst 2pair hands in Kirby's range. These would be horrible turn raises, and Ian said that Kirby is solid.

[Kevin J]

I would 3 bet the turn on this action heavy board. He could have all kinds of hands which he won't be folding and may even 4 bet some worse hands.

I don't think I like the river check either, since it counterfeits some of his possible two pair hands, and this could cause him to check it down.

[Abbaddabba]

[ QUOTE ]
On the turn, the reason I elected to play my hand this way is that I know Kirby pretty damn well and he virtually never has a hand worse than AQ when he takes this line versus my line. I'm thinking his range on the turn is something like A7, AT, AJ, 89, KQ, AA, TT, 77, AK, and the occasional semibluff. Some may dispute that, but it's really what I think his range is. Obviously I should 3 bet against that range but the only problem I see is my need to call the 4 bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

How is calling a 4bet a problem?

You're planning on checkraising the river if it blanks, which puts just as many bets in when behind unless you're making a hero fold on the river to a 3bet.

Additionally, majority of hands he's folding to a 3bet, he's also checking behind with unimproved (or in this case, possibly counterfeited). If you're scared about him folding to a turn 3bet, you definitely dont want to try and checkraise the river.

[Lord_Strife]

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Thoughts?

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he has AT here way too often and is gonna check that river. if he has KQ, he is unlikely to call a river c/r, so just bet and make sure one goes in. if he turned a set of Ts or has AJ, you're gonna get a bunch of bets anyway.

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Minor point, but you'd have to be a real nit to fold KQ (or 98) to a river check-raise.

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I was thinking the same exact thing but I dont play limit often enough to know if that might be some sort of leak or if it was inaccurate.