HSNL downswings: is - 40bi the new -20bi ??

[BobboFitos]

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a LOT of the players regularly playing 25/50 these days are not CLOSE to as fundamentally solid as you might think they should be or are

huge downswings happen when everyone is making marginal plays that catch the wrong side of variance

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why isnt a 40bi "downswing" just a guy who thinks he's good at poker, but really results somewhat tell the truth?

[Dale Dough]

Meh, it's normal that the 'standard' maximal downswing amount increases over time. People put in more hands, so there's more chance the horrible downswing 'hits' even if you play your A game.

Say if you play your A game for 6 months, the 'maximum' (arbitrarily low ROR number)downswing is X. If you lose more than X in a row, chances are your estimate of your winrate is wrong. However, if you play for a few years you're a lot more likely to hit that number and still be right about your winrate, even without taking into account tilt etc.

It's just a result of more people putting in ridiculous numbers of hands. A few years ago the games hadn't been around that long, so nobody had the track record to prove that he was a winner despite a 40 BI downswing.

That said, in my own case (-25 or so recently), emotion and attitude definitely magnified my losses.

[Redgrape]

It's statistically probable with all the players playing online poker that at least one will have a 40+ BI downswing playing absolutely fine.

[TheWorstPlayer]

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It's statistically probable with all the players playing online poker that at least one will have a 40+ BI downswing playing absolutely fine.

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No it isn't. It's statistically probable that someone will have a 40+ BI downswing IF everyone were playing fine. But it's highly HIGHLY unlikely that anyone will continue playing fine while going through a 40+ BI downswing.