ATs, the biggest pot ever.

[bottomset]

[ QUOTE ]
The pot is insanely big though. I don't think you have pair outs unless you raise, and buying even one out if worth the investment of another bet, not in and of itself, but in conjunction with the equity you already have, in this monster pot. I am VERY happy to see button fold.

Looking at this closely though I might be overestimating this, but when the pot is this abnormally large, I tend to err on the side of insanity (which is a small error at worst)

[/ QUOTE ]

look at how much strength you have shown, look at how much the BB has shown, raising the turn = getting 3bet 99% of the time, and you putting in 3bets with a pot equity deficit ... how is that a good idea? We have represented AA pretty good so far, and BB doesn't care at all

Button won't fold a 6, 2pr or better, the only thing we want him to fold that he might fold is an A, but that doesn't seem likely from the action

[madvillain]

SPEW? More like BARF... you were blowing chunks...

The turn raising and capping was terrible. You're really lucky this guy tilted and let you cap the river when your hand came through, otherwise this would've been devastating for you.

This is the kind of hand that, had anyone else played it against you like this, and you complained, they would respond "Won more money, dinit?"

[raytownloc]

I suppose that makes sense. But without knowing the cards, its like sucking titty through a sweater...

[Big Poppa Smurf]

[ QUOTE ]
BTW, UTG limp/re-raise screams AA or KK.

[/ QUOTE ]

Or any ace, or any pair, or just some random hand someone decided would be fun to re-raise with.

[_TKO_]

[ QUOTE ]
I suppose that makes sense. But without knowing the cards, its like sucking titty through a sweater...

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't look at the results when deciding on how you should have correctly played a hand; you're only hurting yourself. Results don't mean a thing (although if you want to find out what my opponents had, you can search the BBV forum).

Anyway, I agree with the 10 out approximation. I also agree that seeing the button fold helps me out. I would love to see any smaller A duck out, which earns me an extra out or so, and any bigger A folding earns me 2 outs. Big pots are the time to play aggressively. I did think the turn cap was spewage after I played the hand; this was my original reason for posting. I only raised the turn because I picked up the gutshot. Should I still raise without it?

[tehox]

I don't like the preflop cap.

After the flop gets capped I personally don't think raising the turn is a good idea, I don't think one pair is going to win so any value gained by knocking button out doesn't make up for putting in a lot of bets getting the worst of it.

[_TKO_]

[ QUOTE ]
Overall your pot equity is probably somewhere close to 20% -- high enough to make a raise to try and knock oout button a wise investment, but not quite enough to raise and cap for value.

[/ QUOTE ]

With only 9 outs, I have 19.6% equity. If I knock out an A, I gain between 1.5 and 2 outs, for an approximate 22% increase in equity, to about 23% total. Is this enough of an increase to risk getting 3bet?

[PGuNk]

n1 =)

[The Vibesman]

I don't think the combined chances of button holding a hand that you want to knock out and actually folding that hand are good enough to raise the turn here.