TomG's Robot Professional MLB Betting

[TomG]

[ QUOTE ]
Tom,

apologies for the stupid question, but does the xERA calc formula come straight out of the Murray book? Does it have any relation to the xERA from the xera-baseball guys?

Thanks!

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes, but Murray actually made a mistake in his book for the xERA formula. The correct formula is...

1) .575 multiplied by hits per 9 innings
Plus
2) .94 multiplied by home runs per nine innings.
Plus
3) .28 multiplied by Walks per 9 innings.
minus
4) .01 multiplied by strikeouts per 9 innings
minus
5) 2.68.

I would assume it is the same statistic used at http://www.xera-baseball.com but I can't confirm as their website makes my eyes bleed.

[irisheyes]

Agreed on that xera-baseball mess. I went to look there first before asking the question, and after several near-epileptic fits, I gave up and asked here.

I assume your calc above is good for both batting and pitching (not that you appear to use it as a pitching stat).

Ermm... nevermind -- clearly you say you do use it as a pitching stat. Thanks again.

[newb411breaker19]

good luck with this TOMG, I am real interested to see how this pans out. For the offensive ratings are you using the season to date performance.. and for the pitchers are you giving one overall XERA or are you accounting for recent performances as well such as last 3 starts?

[TomG]

[ QUOTE ]
good luck with this TOMG, I am real interested to see how this pans out. For the offensive ratings are you using the season to date performance.. and for the pitchers are you giving one overall XERA or are you accounting for recent performances as well such as last 3 starts?

[/ QUOTE ]
I am using current season to date performance for offensive power ratings. This should be a sufficient sample size since most hitters have had over 100 at bats by now.

For pitching I separate both the current season xERA and the pitcher's xERA from his last 3 seasons. Right now I do not give recent performance any priority over historical results. I merely like to look at the results separately because it sometimes help explain differences between the betting line and my calculated line (the public overvalues recent perforance). The xERA I use is the weighted average of the last 3 seasons plus the current season. This is only for starting pitcher. For the bullpen I use the xERA season to date averaged across the entire team's bullpen.

[TomG]

Updated YTD:
11.25 units wagered
+0.12 units
1.07% ROI

With the exception of today's Arizona game, my early picks look good compard to current prices. Since I betting based on my own lines, I feel it is usually best to get my bets down as early as possible.

Therefore, picks for Saturday Baseball...

I have a feeling the line for Saturday's Tor/Philly game will change based upon tonight's outcome. Since I like Toronto tonight, I am locking in with Toronto again for Saturday.

Offensively Florida and TB matchup similarly but Dontrelle Willis should be worth the price you lay for Florida.

Gil Meche is not enough compensate for Kansas City... Even if Meche gets it done for ~6 innings, KC has one of the worst bullpens in baseball. Colorado is an overall more solid team.

SFG and OAK both have similar league adjusted offensive power ratings. With Matt Cain having slightly better xERA than Dan Haren, take the overlay on SFG.

Toronto at Philadelphia
Toronto +162
Risk 1 unit to win 1.62 units

Florida at Tampa Bay
Florida -115
Risk 1.15 units to win 1 unit

Kansas City at Colorado
Colorado -111
Risk 1.11 units to win 1 unit

San Francisco at Oakland
San Francisco +124
Risk 1 unit to win 1.24 units

Good luck!

[TomG]

I mean I'm just spewing units, just spewing units.

Updated YTD:
15.25 units wagered
-1.73 units
-11.37% ROI

May or may not be able to post Sunday picks depending upon schedule.

[136913691369]

[ QUOTE ]
I mean I'm just spewing units, just spewing units.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
-1.73 units

[/ QUOTE ]


umm you lost less then 2 units. Calm down or you'll be in the shock of a lifetime when you inevitabilly lose... wait for it.... 5 whole units!!!

[TomG]

Updated YTD:
19.51 units wagered
+1.89 units
+9.7% ROI

Sunday Baseball...
St. Louis at Detroit
St. Louis +178
Risk 1 unit to win 1.78 units

Two new pitchers. Let's call it a wash. With Detroit having the edge offensively and the HFA they should be favored (my true line is Det -126) but not laying -186.

More Sunday picks coming including Monday plays in a few hours when the early lines get posted.

[KUJustin]

Season to date for offensive power ratings seems fool-hardy.

That methodology would've had you projecting ARod as a guy who hits 80 HRs not that long ago when everyone knew he probably wasn't even going to get over 50 even with the big head start.

[TomG]

Sunday
Baltimore at Washington
Washington +145
Risk 1 unit to win 1.45 units

This is the matchup between the two teams with the worst offensive power ratings in their respective leagues. With no decisive edge on either side on pitching, I see this as a near pick'em. Take Washington and the overlay.