44...Shall We Play Along?

[gobbledygeek]

I'm probably too damn straightforward, but I fold this flop without a second thought. I give us 2 outs here (I'm thinking the bottom end of a runner runner straight or runner runner flush is no good) so we're no where remotely close to the 22:1 we need (we'd need to make up about 6.5 BB, not gonna happen).

I'm guessing you posted this hand to hilite a move but is this at all a long term profitable play?

[TheCount212]

Yes agreed. I called to flop a set and whiffed. Unless I have a gloriously specific premonition about hitting a runner-runner straight flush, I'm done with this hand.

[Stu Pidasso]

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for Stu: what i like the least about calling here(besides the guessing game about how many may call behind me)is going to be my position relative to the preflop raiser if i hit my set after the flop. it makes it difficult to maximize value with the betting coming immediately from my right. for me, that was the biggest drawback. but alas, as i am a set miner i did indeed call.

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James, heres how I believe people should be thinking about a hand like this:

Pre Flop: Against a field, this hand is speculative and thrives on implied odds. To get the necessary implied odds on this hand, you want to put as little money in as possible preflop, and you want the maximium number of players to call behind you. There is a raise directly in front of you - bringing in doubt the possibility of a minimum of 5 players seeing the flop. Additionally there is a chance it will get raised behind you. A raise behind will crush your already slim implied odds. Your position utterly horrible preflop for this holding/preceding action. There is little if any profit preflop in this hand.

Post Flop:
If you miss your set you fold. If you make your set you no longer have a speculative hand. You have a made hand vulnerable to draws. The draws you worry about the most are straight and flush draws. If you can, you want crush the pot odds of those holdings and pulverise any remaining implied odds they could have. Your position of being to the left of the pre-flop raiser gives you that ability - especially if the preflop raiser will make a continuation bet. Your position is advantageous against the hands you now fear the most.

In poker money is made by betting for value and by betting to destroy value(of others). The latter is more often the correct strategy than the former.

Stu

[James.]

[ QUOTE ]
Pre Flop: Against a field, this hand is speculative and thrives on implied odds. To get the necessary implied odds on this hand, you want to put as little money in as possible preflop, and you want the maximium number of players to call behind you. There is a raise directly in front of you - bringing in doubt the possibility of a minimum of 5 players seeing the flop. Additionally there is a chance it will get raised behind you. A raise behind will crush your already slim implied odds. Your position utterly horrible preflop for this holding/preceding action. There is little if any profit preflop in this hand.

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traditionally, everything you have said is accurate. i feel like it's also important to understand that, while this hand relies upon implied odds, it can take a little more heat preflop than a truly speculative hand like 67s. a hand like that gives up much more in value when multiple bets go in preflop.

another way to look at it is not just the odds you are getting going to the flop. ask yourself, "if i hit my set will i be able to make up the 7-8 big bets postflop that require this hand to be profitable"? there's almost two big bets in the pot right now. if i evaluate the table and my opponents correctly to deduce that i will usually receive that kind of action when i hit(which in this hand and on that table i ordinarily would; the one coldcaller behind me was somewhat of an aberration that evening), i can call in this spot preflop seemingly without getting the odds i need immediately.

i have something else to say about pocket pairs in today's online hold em games(that i haven't really discussed or seen discussed). IMO, they have gone up in value UI. hands i traditionally played for "set value" have increased value in terms of showdown value. why? because the games are much more aggressive now. i routinely call down with Ahigh versus certain opponents. it's against these same opponents that a smaller pocket pair can profitably be played without hitting a set.

[ QUOTE ]
Post Flop:
If you miss your set you fold. If you make your set you no longer have a speculative hand. You have a made hand vulnerable to draws. The draws you worry about the most are straight and flush draws. If you can, you want crush the pot odds of those holdings and pulverise any remaining implied odds they could have. Your position of being to the left of the pre-flop raiser gives you that ability - especially if the preflop raiser will make a continuation bet. Your position is advantageous against the hands you now fear the most.

In poker money is made by betting for value and by betting to destroy value(of others). The latter is more often the correct strategy than the former.

Stu

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i appreciate your input. your responses are well thought-out and well-explained. they do contain some ideas that i once generally agreed with in principle(and ones that if adhered to certainly won't get you into trouble [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]). given the dynamics of the games inwhich i currently play, they are not completely off-base. just not quite as accurate as they once were(more appropriately not as all-encompassing in terms of profit potential). as i stated before, in shorthanded and HU situations pairs have more than set value alone. they have showdown value that beats Ahigh.

fwiw, when i flop a set in a huge pot on an uber-drawy board i might prefer the position i'm in relative to the preflop raiser. generally speaking though, i would rather have coldcallers between me and the initial raiser so i can trap the field for multiple bets if i flop a big hand. after all, regardless of the draws that are out, our set is a very strong made hand with the luxury of a powerful redraw to a fullhouse or quads. i'm not quite as concerned about protecting postflop as you seem to be. i'm more concerned with maximizing value.

either way that's completely dependent on the board, the pot size, and our opponents. for that reason it wouldn't do us much good to argue the specifics of that point here. for now, let's just focus on the preflop coldcall and my action on the flop in a 9ish sb pot. once again, thanks for your input. you make good points.

[Stu Pidasso]

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for now, let's just focus on the preflop coldcall and my action on the flop in a 9ish sb pot

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On the flop:

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bb checks, UTG+1 bets, i...

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You should raise or fold. If both opponents yet to act will fold more than 20% of the time a raise is the play. In this specific instance, I lean towards raise.

Stu

[Stu Pidasso]

[ QUOTE ]
i have something else to say about pocket pairs in today's online hold em games(that i haven't really discussed or seen discussed). IMO, they have gone up in value UI. hands i traditionally played for "set value" have increased value in terms of showdown value. why? because the games are much more aggressive now. i routinely call down with Ahigh versus certain opponents. it's against these same opponents that a smaller pocket pair can profitably be played without hitting a set.

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24/11/1.4 opens UTG+1

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UTG+1 raises with about 19 out of the 169 possible starting hands. What hands does UTG+1 raise with that has you beat? I figure AA,KK,QQ,JJ,TT. That means 26% of the time he has you visiciosly beat. The other 74% of the time you are an ever so slight favorite - basically a coin flip. You can figure the villian here will win this hand about 57-60% of the time. Unless you can get a substantial amount of dead money into the pot preflop, you cannot expect to play 44 profitably against this player w/o a school of fish to protect you.

Stu

[goofball]

I choose fold for preflop which is as far as I've read.

[goofball]

(flop)Ugh. Now you'd better raise.

[BigBadBabar]

i fold it pre

[reutel]

I think I fold pre.

If you want to continue with this hand after the flop (you think UTG has ace high), you should raise to get those KQ/JT type of hands out. Combined they have alot of equity. You are in pretty good shape against two overs (who will call you're raise). I think you are done with the hand if an ace turns though.