Comm 40: KK vs Gabe and a donk

[Nate tha\\\' Great]

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On the flop and the turn, if Shawn/Sean has AA, he's even money with most of Gabe's range, I think (I could be underestimating Gabe's range here).

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If Gabe's range is EXACTLY AA/KK/QQ/JJ, then AA is even money.

If Gabe also caps with AK, then AA is significantly ahead.

If Gabe does not cap with AK but also does not cap with JJ, then AA is significantly ahead.

Also there are three players in the hand so even if Shawn is even-money against Gabe's range he should probably want at least one more salvo of betting to take place, especially as he's out of position which lets Gabe play the turn almost perfectly.

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I've never heard much about him giving excessive action, though, and I think putting in many more bets with AA is about as foolish as putting in many more bets with KK.

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They're actually not close, and the reason they're not close is precisely because Gabe's range is so narrow. It's almost like a situation from no limit where you'd never fold with KK in a million years and never call with QQ in a million years.

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I don't think AA is necessarily worthy of being fully weighted here, but I think discounting it by any significant amount would be a fairly large error as it's a very reasonable holding for many players, even TAGs, given the board texture and reads they may have on Gabe.

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There are a lot more TAGs that will be overplaying KK here than will be underplaying AA. I don't think AA really enters into Gabe's mind on the river, and he may even be discounting KK somewhat.

[ShawnHoo]

Nate (and others),

Loving this discussion and will try to formulate some more detailed thoughts later, but I wanted to point out that I was the last to act on each street (some of your posts seemed to indicate that I was OOP).

[DeathDonkey]

I am really enjoying this too, just want to toss in this idea...any merit to bluff raising the river to represent AQ? Obviously it might be a stretch preflop but I would expect Gabe to think AQ is in Shawn's 3 betting range whether it is or not. Clearly AQ can't play any differently on the flop/turn.

Nate I really like the analogy to QQ vs KK in that NL spot, it made perfect sense to me.

-DeathDonkey

[mike l.]

"any merit to bluff raising the river to represent AQ?"

no merit at all. gabe is super good but laying big hands down on the river is one thing ive seen him consistently not do.

i dont want to burst anyone's bubble, but this discussion is purely academic. it's great if we change it from gabe to some other 2+2er who has a wider range, but if we're still seriously talking about gabe specifically than everything i initially said in this thread kills any discussion.

[amulet]

i read all the posts and clearly many people who know gabe think that gabe is a tight good player who has either aa or qq here. i don't know him. under normal circumstances with the 2nd best starting hand i play it more aggressively then is being suggested vs gabe. i either pop the flop or the turn. heads up i pop the turn, with the 3ed player in i pop at least one of the streets. is gabe so tight and str8 forward that no one pops because he likely has AA or may have QQ. i realize he capped in early position, but does he ever vary his play? if he is as good as everyone is indicating doesn't he vary his play? couldn't he have AKs here or be varying his play vs someone who knows him well? i like a raise somewhere unless i see my opponent as a rock or i have a great read.

[stinkypete]

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I am really enjoying this too, just want to toss in this idea...any merit to bluff raising the river to represent AQ?

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i thought about this too but shawn's image would have to be that he basically never bluffs, at all, and i doubt that's the case.

also, if shawn raises and gabe has something like AA, gabe should be bluff 3-betting. not sure if he would though.

[ShawnHoo]

I had considered going for a free showdown raise on the turn. Bad idea? It looked to me like BB had a draw of some sort and I didn't expect to get 3-bet by Gabe unless I was really in a heap of trouble (QQQ/JJJ).

I considered folding the river as some have suggested, but if I'm going to call the turn, I have to call down, right? It's not like I was calling the turn just to try to spike a K.

[pocketpared]

Was the game full? Would Gabe check trip Q's after capping preflop against a possible button play, representing 10-10 or lower or AKs? AA-KK seems likely.

[Entity]

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there's no real reason for gabe to know that shawn has a big hand too.

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That's exactly why Shawn has to call.

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I think with the BB still present in the hand Gabe's chances of bluffing with AK to get Shawn to fold the other AK are significantly decreased. Protected pot and all, sure, but the parlay Gabe has to have in that spot for one player to have T9/etc and the other player to have AK

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The presence of the third player can make the bluff look stronger. Also, his range shouldn't be all that scary to Gabe since every fish hand and its mother has some sort of straight draw on a QJx board and should also be calling the turn with a gutshot or better given that the pot is so large. I also think that the fish will usually have raised somewhere along the line with a Q since unlike Shawn he's in a position to protect his hand and the fact that he's passive is mitigated by the fact that he's bad and probably doesn't read hands well (e.g. he'll take flopping top pair more at its face value). So I think his range consists of a lot of J's and a lot of AT/AK/KT/T9/K9 etc, and perhaps he'll even fold the J's some of the time to a river bet.

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(and while you are right that Shawn's handrange certainly is favored toward AK here, it's not as huge as one might initially think as I don't think Shawn is going to give excessive action on this flop with AA, KK, or AK, so it's basically 6:9 weighted in AK's favor).

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There's plenty of room in between "giving excessive action" and check-calling the whole way down with AA. Against a range of JJ-AA and AK, AA has 62% equity while KK has 36% equity. I think the only way Shawn plays AA this passively is if he picks up some kind of tell or is running bad. And that's the thing ... once you remove AA from Shawn's range his range becomes really non-threatening.

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I agree with almost everything that you've said, but based on what limited experience and reads I have, I'm severely discounting the chances that Gabe caps with AKo, OOP, vs a tight player who 3bet his EP raise in a full ring game. I think generally that sort of play will be a reasonable-sized mistake in this sort of situation, and consequently I don't give it much credit at all. There is, I think, some small chance of Gabe having AKs, but at that point we don't significantly alter the equity of AA on this flop (nor does the question of whether KK should call change significantly) by only adding 2 combinations of hands to Gabe's particular handranges.

I'm also full aware that the presence of the 3rd player gives Gabe's potential "bluff" more credence, and a QJx board isn't a *horrible* spot to keep running a bluff as there is at least a reasonable chance the loosepassive will have a handrange like T8/T9/etc, but given the relative rarity of AKs being in Gabe's handrange, it sets up a gigantic parlay here that makes me agree with Mike's initial assessment, that Shawn should fold the river. The equity that your hand has is only good in a rare situation, and in all honesty, you are really hoping on either a rare parlay or a chop to give you equity to be calling this river bet. I don't think getting 12:1 is a sufficient price to call this river given those parameters.

In addition, the reason that I suggest that some may give less action with AA here is because while your hand has fair equity, you don't have enough equity to be calling 3bets, and there is at least a very very strong possibility of you making the only "worse" valuebetting hand fold by putting in action. The situations where this is reversed are where you know your opponent well enough that he will spew with AK/KK, trying to make you fold AA, but in a situation where both of you are fairly snug players, I don't think that playing defensively when your equity is questionable is unreasonable at all, and while I'm not disagreeing with your assessment that you'll be more likely to see people overplaying KK than underplaying AA here, I'm still certain that some portion of players (again, I don't know Shawn or his propensity to give action) will play AA accordingly in this spot, and I hope I've given good enough reasons why I don't think that it's something you'd only see from a tight-passive player.

Rob

[Gabe]

When you told me you had posted the hand, I knew mike would get it right.

I also thought that Chris might over think it.

With the bad players (the “thank you dealer” guy, a more or less maniac, and some loose guys still to act) both you and I were playing very straight-forwardly. Preflop, I was thinking about just calling the 3-bet, and maybe trying to mimic the semi-bluff from the other hand, but the bad player called. I would have a really hard time putting you on AQ, the way the game was playing, and I think you would have probably raised the flop with a set, for sure the turn, after the other player called the flop. When the river paired, the one I was worried about was the bad player, and my eyes went to him. I was pissed when Ted said “Pocket Aces” before the bad guy acted, because when the river hit, it seemed like it didn’t affect the guy one way or the other. You said you think he had a draw, though, right?