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#21
05-08-2007, 01:37 PM
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Re: Lay Down a Set?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Here is a hand I played last night that I really think I should have gotten away from on the turn [/ QUOTE ] ROFL scared money? [/ QUOTE ] ummm....no..... since when is making a correct fold scared money? If he has QQ there half the time and AA-KK the other half, does this make it a call or does it make it a fold? Neither, it means that it really doesn't matter what you do, in the long run it is breakeven. PS sorry about the hijack. [/ QUOTE ] Not exactly... If his range is QQ+ : There are 12 combos of AA and KK and 3 combos of QQ. He is much more likely to have AA or KK. So, it isn't a break even thing. [/ QUOTE ] I know how that math works, but it is not quite correct in this situation. What I said was that I expected him to have AA-KK half the time and QQ half the time here. He wouldn't normally play AA-KK this way, it would be a varying play for him that he would do less than 25% of the time with these hands, therefore making it about 50-50 that he has QQ or AA-KK. 
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#22
05-08-2007, 01:40 PM
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Re: Lay Down a Set?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Here is a hand I played last night that I really think I should have gotten away from on the turn [/ QUOTE ] ROFL scared money? [/ QUOTE ] ummm....no..... since when is making a correct fold scared money? If he has QQ there half the time and AA-KK the other half, does this make it a call or does it make it a fold? Neither, it means that it really doesn't matter what you do, in the long run it is breakeven. PS sorry about the hijack. [/ QUOTE ] Not exactly... If his range is QQ+ : There are 12 combos of AA and KK and 3 combos of QQ. He is much more likely to have AA or KK. So, it isn't a break even thing. [/ QUOTE ] Not exactly... [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] Mathmatically it is more likely but given how the hand has played so far it is less likely that he plays AA/KK this way increasing the chance he has QQ.
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#24
05-08-2007, 01:54 PM
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Re: Lay Down a Set?
[ QUOTE ]
Not exactly... If his range is QQ+ : There are 12 combos of AA and KK and 3 combos of QQ. He is much more likely to have AA or KK. So, it isn't a break even thing. [/ QUOTE ] And don't forget 66, which you also crush.
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#25
05-08-2007, 02:09 PM
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Re: Lay Down a Set?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Not exactly... If his range is QQ+ : There are 12 combos of AA and KK and 3 combos of QQ. He is much more likely to have AA or KK. So, it isn't a break even thing. [/ QUOTE ] And don't forget 66, which you also crush. [/ QUOTE ] 66 is not in his UTG raising range from what I have seen. [ QUOTE ] If you really think it's 50/50, you should still call, cos it's +EV. [/ QUOTE ] ok, 50/50 was a bad example. What I meant was that his mix makes it very close to neutral EV or EV=0, such that it doesn't really matter what I do. I understand that if it was truly a 50/50 mix that getting 3-1 on my money would be an unforgiveable mistake, but if the mix is more like 75/25 then it is neutral EV, and if it is 80/20 it is clearly -EV.
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#26
05-08-2007, 02:16 PM
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Re: Lay Down a Set?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Here is a hand I played last night that I really think I should have gotten away from on the turn [/ QUOTE ] ROFL scared money? [/ QUOTE ] ummm....no..... since when is making a correct fold scared money? If he has QQ there half the time and AA-KK the other half, does this make it a call or does it make it a fold? Neither, it means that it really doesn't matter what you do, in the long run it is breakeven. PS sorry about the hijack. [/ QUOTE ] Not exactly... If his range is QQ+ : There are 12 combos of AA and KK and 3 combos of QQ. He is much more likely to have AA or KK. So, it isn't a break even thing. [/ QUOTE ] Not exactly... [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] Mathmatically it is more likely but given how the hand has played so far it is less likely that he plays AA/KK this way increasing the chance he has QQ. [/ QUOTE ] Haha, whatever. 50/50 wasn't the best thing to be throwing around was the real point. I agree with you though, you should discount AA/KK.
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#27
05-08-2007, 02:20 PM
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Re: Lay Down a Set?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Here is a hand I played last night that I really think I should have gotten away from on the turn [/ QUOTE ] ROFL scared money? [/ QUOTE ] ummm....no..... since when is making a correct fold scared money? If he has QQ there half the time and AA-KK the other half, does this make it a call or does it make it a fold? Neither, it means that it really doesn't matter what you do, in the long run it is breakeven. PS sorry about the hijack. [/ QUOTE ] Not exactly... If his range is QQ+ : There are 12 combos of AA and KK and 3 combos of QQ. He is much more likely to have AA or KK. So, it isn't a break even thing. [/ QUOTE ] Not exactly... [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] Mathmatically it is more likely but given how the hand has played so far it is less likely that he plays AA/KK this way increasing the chance he has QQ. [/ QUOTE ] Haha, whatever. 50/50 wasn't the best thing to be throwing around was the real point. I agree with you though, you should discount AA/KK. [/ QUOTE ] It's all good [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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#28
05-08-2007, 04:56 PM
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Re: Lay Down a Set?
jhill - after he check-raises you already know he is going to call the rest of your all-in of course.
So I believe it becomes essentially an $83 "call" into a $318 pot which is around 26%. So yeah, obviously we can see that if you 'only' think it's 50/50 that he has QQ then you have to call here. Is your read good enough to think that the chances of him having something other than QQ is less than 26%? I tend to exaggerate a tad when it comes to reading my opponents' hand-range but I would have to think that KK/AA and maybe even a weirdly played AQ could still be possible. 26% possible I don't know. Not sure if there's a flush-draw on this hand or not because we don't see suits. But if there is a flush-draw, would it be possible that JTs would be in his preflop raising range occasionally and he was just pushing in the rest of his stack with a big draw? Just trying to come up with hypotheticals here. If you believed that strongly you were definitely beat then that would have been simply an awesome fold to make...and obviously one you probably shouldn't be trying to 'find' too often.
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#29
05-08-2007, 05:15 PM
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Re: Lay Down a Set?
lol at folding this hand
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#30
05-08-2007, 05:25 PM
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Re: Lay Down a Set?
[ QUOTE ]
jhill - after he check-raises you already know he is going to call the rest of your all-in of course. So I believe it becomes essentially an $83 "call" into a $318 pot which is around 26%. So yeah, obviously we can see that if you 'only' think it's 50/50 that he has QQ then you have to call here. Is your read good enough to think that the chances of him having something other than QQ is less than 26%? I tend to exaggerate a tad when it comes to reading my opponents' hand-range but I would have to think that KK/AA and maybe even a weirdly played AQ could still be possible. 26% possible I don't know. Not sure if there's a flush-draw on this hand or not because we don't see suits. But if there is a flush-draw, would it be possible that JTs would be in his preflop raising range occasionally and he was just pushing in the rest of his stack with a big draw? Just trying to come up with hypotheticals here. If you believed that strongly you were definitely beat then that would have been simply an awesome fold to make...and obviously one you probably shouldn't be trying to 'find' too often. [/ QUOTE ] If you notice, I didn't find it here, just kinda second guessing my actions. I definately wasn't looking for a reason to fold. It is so hard to come up with how often he has something less than QQ here. If this situation comes up with this opponent once every 10k hands, then it may be 40k hands before he actually has something other than QQ here (obv not exactly, but on average). It is a whole lot easier to just shove and say it was a cooler and never second guess folding a set on a dry board. I don't think I have ever folded 2nd set on a dry board, but I have occassionally folded 3rd set on a dry board. There are some people that play so straightforward that their plays almost always mean exactly what they say they mean. In this hand I showed a ton of strength and he is a strong solid player and he still wanted to play for stacks. You have to ask yourself why.
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