huge fold, berate me

[Jay Riall]

Yeah, but there are a million combinations of flushes, but only 67 beats us on this board....

[ikestoys]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, but there are a million combinations of flushes, but only 67 beats us on this board....

[/ QUOTE ]

so what? the villain has pretty much defined his hand as a straight the same way he would if he had a flush

[Jay Riall]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, but there are a million combinations of flushes, but only 67 beats us on this board....

[/ QUOTE ]

so what? the villain has pretty much defined his hand as a straight the same way he would if he had a flush

[/ QUOTE ]

If you say so.

[Stake Monster]

advocating a fold here is beyond nitty. it's also very -EV.

[thedustbustr]

tann, its very likely a feel thing. i've made folds like this on an instinct. it doesn't happen often.

[ikestoys]

[ QUOTE ]
advocating a fold here is beyond nitty. it's also very -EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am definitely willing to listen to reasons why I'm wrong, but stating a disagreeing point of view is pretty without reasoning is 1st level thinking, we can do better.

So I'll go through my thought process once more.

Villain is an aggressive player. The board is drawy. We bet out, he flatcalls. At this point I'm ruling out two pair or a set, because he raises there 100% of the time. The turn gives us a straight, but suddenly the villain wants to play a huge pot. Does a 20/18/3.5 ever turn two pair here? Probably not.

So what hand can a 20/18/3.5 player have on the turn that he didn't want to go for broke on the flop? If you disagree with my thinking, point it out.

[Jigsaws]

ike: the random stupidity factor is just too great to fold here. yes, i agree that if this guy always raises a set on the flop, and never raises anything less than two pair on the turn, then he has to have 76. but you know what, people do dumb things all the time, and even TAGs are not robots. he'll have something besides 76 too often to fold, in my opinion.

by the way, don't you hate villain's check-raise here? i'd always be leading in his spot. way to kill your action... unless he's up against the 2nd nuts.

[ikestoys]

[ QUOTE ]
the random stupidity factor is just too great to fold here

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
i haven't seen him get out of line whatsoever in about 250 hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

how large do you think that is?

[Jigsaws]

like i said, too great to fold (yes, despite that read). [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[morphball]

[ QUOTE ]
BTW i didn't see the results before I posted

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't either, but I was just going to say that if villian shows up with 76 sixty-four percent (64%) or more the time, this call is -EV, and when you add sets in with 76, its a flip.