River checkup

[daveT]

All the casinos in California allow for No Limit when the betting is heads up in the end.

I would like to fold the flop here as well. Sometimes you can get em to fold, but cearly not often enough.

Emerson, a professional BL player told me this fun story.

The count was something like 20+, incredible. There is one player who really had no clue what was happening, he was hitting garbage like 19 and splitting tens. Anyway, this wierdo gets somthing like a soft 16, hits hits hits hits hits, killing all of the aces dropping the count to near- zero.

I don't know, if a clueless BJ player can screw up this bad, a clueless poker player can play even worse. You need to stop implying that your opponents know what they are doing. But I do have one low question to ask: you have 388 posts, have you played 388 hands of poker yet?

[Bad Lobster]

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can he ever have 33 ? Seems like a line he could take with 33 also.

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Cold call a preflop UTG raise with 33?

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He DID say the standard cast of characters, and the standard cast of characters around my neck of the ocean would certainly do that.

Villain's hand range:

The range of hands I see making this play is AA, QQ, 33, A3, Q3, and J3. The AA and QQ would have to have not reraised before the flop, and there's only one way to make 33. So I think a full house you beat is much more likely than a hand that beats you. A3 is most likely of all. Yes, I'm assuming opponents are too loose.

Does a guy have to have the nuts to lead hero into the brier patch? No, I think anyone who just made 3's full on a high card board would be thinking about his well-disguised crusher hand and how to get 2 more bets out of it.

[emerson]

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All the casinos in California allow for No Limit when the betting is heads up in the end.

I would like to fold the flop here as well. Sometimes you can get em to fold, but cearly not often enough.

Emerson, a professional BL player told me this fun story.

The count was something like 20+, incredible. There is one player who really had no clue what was happening, he was hitting garbage like 19 and splitting tens. Anyway, this wierdo gets somthing like a soft 16, hits hits hits hits hits, killing all of the aces dropping the count to near- zero.

I don't know, if a clueless BJ player can screw up this bad, a clueless poker player can play even worse. You need to stop implying that your opponents know what they are doing. But I do have one low question to ask: you have 388 posts, have you played 388 hands of poker yet?

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Well, first on the blackjack: you are disappointed that the guy used up the cards in the rich deck and is bringing the shuffle on more rapidly. However, you can't blame him for the drop in the count. The expected change in true count after N hands dealt is always zero. His draws, if small, would have made the count go higher. The mean change in count is zero. The deck depleats as the running count converges upon zero, thus keeping the same ratio of high to low cards, thus the same true count. Same as in poker, when you have a heart flush draw the deck has a certain richness of hearts which is not depleated because of mucked hands. The expected hearts in those hands reduce the population of hearts by the same fraction that the total cards depleate the remaining deck. Odds are the same. Works the same in blackjack and poker.

On poker, I was an online prop and only began playing live when both the sites i was propping for either shut down or stopped allowing Americans (mansion and planet). I've put in poker time since then on a few trips playing 40/80 at Borgota and Commerce, 30/60 in Vegas, and 20/40 in tunica. I'm doing about 1.25 BB/hr at 40/80 and much better at 20/40, though a very small sample size.

I'll be at Casino AZ for two weeks in May and at Commerce for two weeks in June.

[ILOVEPOKER929]

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So nobody is questioning the turn? I might 3-bet here since he can have some 2-pair hands (AJ raises this turn, probably QJ too) and also 33. If he 4-bets you still have a 10-out redraw.

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Should DaveR 3bet the turn or just call? Lets find out based on my rudimentary analysis.


Assume Villain's range on the turn is: AQo,AQs,AJo,AJs,A3s,QJo,QJs,33,KTo,KTs. Discount AJ by 90% becuz villain didnt raise flop. Discount AQ by 50% becuz villain didnt raise flop. I would also discount QJo,KTo,A3s by 50% since even loose live players can find a fold with these hands preflop. I would not discount KTs,QJs or 33's becuz live players rarely fold suited broadways or pairs even to a preflop raise based on my experience.

Based on hand combos and my discounts Dave is a 1.08-1 favorite on the turn once raised. Without any discounts he is a 5-4 favorite on the turn. Add in the fact that the Dave has more outs when behind than the villain has when hes behind and it appears that Dave should definitely 3bet the turn.

However that doesnt mean that Dave made a mistake. Since Dave may have a read he might not have to rely on discounts and assumptions. For example. What if we somehow knew that if the villain had AQ,AJ,33,A3s he would always raise the flop but if he had QJ and KT he would always call the flop and raise the turn if he improves. If that were the case then Dave would be a 5-1 underdog on the turn once raised assuming my preflop discounts and he would be a 16-3 underdog on the turn with no discounts. Even a 10 out redraw cannot make up for this deficit.

So PJ, you began your post by asking why nobody is questioning the turn and youre right, Dave's turn play is questionable. The person who is most likely to know whether Dave's turn call is a mistake is obviously The DaveR himself since he was there and he may be able to totally eliminate many hands based on how the villain plays.

[The DaveR]

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Check/fold the flop.

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Do you play much live in small, insulated poker markets where bad play has been bred like glaucoma or webbed feet for the past 25 years? Here's my equity against their handranges:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

966,381,570 games 5.797 secs 166,703,738 games/sec

Board: Ac Qh 3s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.685% 49.46% 00.22% 478002886 2139426.67 { JcJh }
Hand 1: 25.158% 24.69% 00.47% 238584390 4535238.67 { random }
Hand 2: 25.158% 24.69% 00.47% 238584390 4535238.67 { random }

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I used to play in the weakest limit game in the world at Motor City casino in Detroit, Michigan until the games dried up once no limit took over. Im convinced that the best play in this situation with your hand is to just check/fold the flop. I could be wrong.

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This was the 10/20 game there. Given their coldcalling ranges I think checking is a clear mistake. You'll win on the flop more than one time in seven.

[ILOVEPOKER929]

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This was the 10/20 game there. Given their coldcalling ranges I think checking is a clear mistake. You'll win on the flop more than one time in seven.

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I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree on that issue.

[RudeboyOi]

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So nobody is questioning the turn? I might 3-bet here since he can have some 2-pair hands (AJ raises this turn, probably QJ too) and also 33. If he 4-bets you still have a 10-out redraw.

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hey pj

if villian 4bets the turn

what line do you like to take on this river

bet out or go for a c/r?

[Bad Lobster]

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Its mostly 4 bets in California, 5 bets in Vegas.

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Mostly isn't really good enough, is it? I better ask to be sure.

[emerson]

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Its mostly 4 bets in California, 5 bets in Vegas.

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Mostly isn't really good enough, is it? I better ask to be sure.

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Well, here is what I do. Just get the phone number on the internet and then call and ask for the poker room. Ask what ever you want. I do this for poker rooms around the country to ask them at random times of the day what games are going, how many tables, waiting lists, etc, just to get an idea of what it will be like before I take a trip.

Most of the time they don't actually even have the games they advertise.

[Victor]

i think pbob is right that his speech=nuts but i realllllllllllllly want to 4bet.