Just caught Action Jeff's big bluff, now what?

[FionnMac]

[ QUOTE ]
isnt this an easy call?

[/ QUOTE ]

yes.

[Reef]

[ QUOTE ]
cawlit jebus

[/ QUOTE ]

[ddubois]

[ QUOTE ]
why would you raise this flop?

[/ QUOTE ]
why wouldn't you raise the turn?

[SharpObject]

You guys are probably right, of course my hand is no good when I called, but whatever. I mean I don't feel great about the call, but I don't see finding a fold here.

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $5/$10 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

<u>SB: $1036</u>
BB: $656.50
<u>Hero (UTG): $1513</u>
MP: $1181
CO: $1035
BTN: $950

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> Hero is dealt Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6 Players)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $35</font>, 3 folds, SB calls $30, BB folds

<font color="black">Flop:</font> ($80) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets $80</font>, Hero calls $80

<font color="black">Turn:</font> ($240) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets $205</font>, Hero calls $205

<font color="black">River:</font> ($650) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets all-in for $716</font>, Hero calls $716

Pot Size: $2082 ($3 Rake)

SB had 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (three of a kind, Sevens) and Won (+$1034)
Hero had Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (two pair, Kings and Queens) and LOST (-$1036)

[NOSUP4U]

I guess you should have raised the flop, then he would have shoved with his set, and you could have folded knowing he must have top two beat???

I mean, its a cooler, but why are you trying to get away from this hand with the odds you're getting on the river and considering your opponent.

Mark

[wdead]

raising at any point is retarded. 77 or 910 beat you. tough cooler.

[smartalecc5]

[ QUOTE ]
isnt this an easy call?

[/ QUOTE ]

[ddubois]

I'd like to discuss why raising turn is "retarded". If he has a set, it apparently doesn't matter what we do, it's a cooler as we're not folding top two even when he overbets river.

Therefore, it only matters how his other hands will play out. Are we calling an all-in on any river? Any non-ace? What about a diamond? What about a 9? What about a J or T?

The key point IMO is this: Is he really going to 3 barrel something worse than KQ, or is he only going to shove river when he hits? If you think you can induce a bluff often on the river by calling turn, then OK, that's fine to call. But if he's going to give up the vast majority of the time, and only shove rivers when he hits and we're always going to pay him off, then I don't see how we do better by call/call.

Besides JT, he could have some sort of pair+diamond or gutshot+diamond, and you don't have any way of knowing which hidden 2-11 outter you'll be paying off. The pots pretty big, I think there's an arguemtn to just take it down now, and if calls with AdTd or whatever, great -- that's better than calling the river 2d/Js/etc.

Maybe this is a math problem where we find his average numbers of outs for a 'payoff frequency', and compare to his 'bluff frequency', and correspondingly compare those against the size of the pot versus the size of the potential river bet.

[wdead]

i dont like raising turn because it gets value from absolutely no hands, although I guess it protects agasint 910 and J10