I folded the nuts

[CardSharpCook]

[ QUOTE ]
Agree with Mike L. about the live game ability to lay down hands. Think that Joe likely has trips here somehow. Think you should probably check/fold the river given that: He can't have a worse ace than you, he won't call twice with JJ or something, you will get raised when beat, he'll never value bet a worse hand like JJ because your hand is face up.

-DeathDonkey

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL?

[DeathDonkey]

What's with this forum today? I stated the river play and then I backed it up with four assumptions that cover all situations. If you think I'm wrong then say which of my assumptions is incorrect. If you agree with all my assumptions than I am correct because I covered all cases. I am on the logical high ground here and people are responding with things like "LOL" and "I'd like to see someone defend this". I've already defended it, someone say something meaningful to undefend it or shut up and agree with me.

-DeathDonkey

[AragornX151]

[ QUOTE ]
Agree with Mike L. about the live game ability to lay down hands. Think that Joe likely has trips here somehow. Think you should probably check/fold the river given that: He can't have a worse ace than you, he won't call twice with JJ or something, you will get raised when beat, he'll never value bet a worse hand like JJ because your hand is face up.

-DeathDonkey

[/ QUOTE ]

Firstly, I agree for the most part with Mike L. If it's a close call in yur mind, you should call, but there are absolutely plenty of times where folding with 10-1 odds is easily the right decision. I've done it many times. Nate's hand is a great example of the type that comes up a few times a session at least in standard 20-40 games.

That said, I don't think Joe Tall is your standard 20-40 fish. With the odds, I think you have to call. You're probably beaten about 80% of the time, but you're splitting 10-15% (DeathDonkey, you think he doesn't value bet AK here?), and you win at least 5% of the time. Note that trips are less likely here as they'd mean he raised with a hand like 98s in EP (sure, he could, but it has to be considered much less likely than AK or AQ). I think he has AQ occasionally here, AK sometimes, and a boat or trips the majority. Overall, you have to call here.

[DeathDonkey]

Alright now we are getting somewhere. Ok two people think Joe can have worse aces. I'll admit right now I didn't realize there was a flush draw possible on the flop. So I forgot about Ax of clubs for Joe. I am still not certain he would raise those on the flop, but its definitely the only way he can raise the flop and have an ace in his hand. I will amend my river play to state that if the flop were rainbow we can't beat a single hand that will bet or call the river. Since Ax of clubs is possible, and the pot is big, a river check/call seems like an ok/mediocre play.

Part of this is my own playing experience with Joe, but I very much doubt he can have any ace here other than Ax of clubs. So that knowledge was the reason for my original post, however, the flush draw makes me have to admit there is some chance we can win here (well, we can always win if it goes check/check I just hate our chances if a bet goes in).

Anyway I just think people here aren't trying to put him on a hand. After a limper he could have A9, K9s, maybe even 98s, he could have quads. One problem is I think all those hands should raise the turn. Something like Ax of clubs does make some sense up until the river, but given our knowledge that Joe raised the river, those hands make less sense to me. Of course, HOWMANY didn't have that info. available at the time of his river decision.

River is a tough spot. I still like checking and considering folding, but I could understand a call.

-DeathDonkey

[blindside]

wow this is a humongous pot...

i don't think bet/folding is horrendous i just wouldn't be able to do it cause even half the pot here would be worth a call here... and i think you chop or win this enough times to call...

[Nate.]

DeathDonkey --

I agree with the spirit of your check/folding analysis but Joe Tall can have exactly AK or even A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (which granted he won't valuebet 100%) or (admittedly rarely) something curious like an expert hand-turned-bluff (KK, say).

27off --

The fact that it's so bad to treat river play by rote is exactly why we're "piling on" emerson. But I've probably directed enough comments at emerson in this thread.

shemp --

Of course there was hyperbole involved, but there's a ton of money to be made folding the river, regardless of Izmet Fekali's memorable quote about screwing a cocktail waitress or of Howard Lederer's DVD's advice.

--Nate

EDIT:

Nice post, DeathDonkey.

[CardSharpCook]

[ QUOTE ]
So there's like 1 fold, Joe raises, 3 cold calls, I 3bet AK in the sb, bb may or may not have called, the rest all call.

Flop: 992

I still have the nuts so I bet. Fold to Joe who raises and fold to me and I call.

Turn: A

RAMALAMADINGDONG

I bet, he calls.

River: 4

I bet, he raises and I fold pretty quickly.

[/ QUOTE ]

Chris,

I've never played with Joe Tall. However, I would imagine that since he is a 2p2er his open raise range in early-middle position is at least AJ-AK, ATs, KQ, AA-88. He did not cap PF. That probably takes AA-QQ out of the range and reduces the chances of AKs.

Flop - I bet and he raises. OK, 88-QQ are still perfectly reasonable hands. Some players will try to clear the field and draw to AK-AQ. All of his suited club hands of course.

Turn - I bet, he calls. Joe should probably giving up on 88-KK here, so we can reduce his range to 99, AK-AQ and all those suited clubs.

River - I check and he bets. I fold because I know he can ONLY have 99 here? We've eliminated AA with his no cap PF (maybe this is unwise) and we don't believe JT has the cajones to open raise hands like T9/K9 in early-middle position. So we're 100% sure based on the flop raise and turn call and river bet that he has exactly 99. I don't get it. My "LOL?" was hoping yours was some kind of humerous post, in fact, I was about 70-75% sure that's what it was. Meant no offense.

[DeathDonkey]

Hi CSC,

Well I am basically fairly sure Joe doesn't raise AK/AQ on the flop unless it's clubs, but that's read dependent and possibly wrong. On the river if we check and he bets, yes I think he will not be betting random clubs or even something like AJ clubs, I think he will be grateful HOWMANY forgot to make him decide on the river whether to crying call a bet with his obvious AK, or that HOWMANY sort of donked the turn out of confusion with KK or QQ and is now going to give up.

What hands would you expect Joe to bet on this river? I put them at 99, A9, AK clubs and maybe AQ clubs.

-DeathDonkey

[surfdoc]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Checking the flop is fine too.

Your hand reading needs a little tweaking. Joe doesn't have 44 like ever. Weak tight worry that you are beat is fine and when I call I won't be too suprised to see AA but folding is insane.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dude I was kidding that he could have 44.

[/ QUOTE ]

okay, I feel better.

[Joe Tall]

There was 1 limper, I raised, and it ended up 7 players to the flop for 3-bets. So the pot was 1.5 bets bigger preflop then you have in your OP.

For the record, I knew exactly who you were and I thought for sure you knew who I was when you made that quick table change and then when I "re-changed" I figured you'd know that I knew who you were. Is that 3rd level 2p2 seat-position play?!

For the record, I was AMAZED you folded as I'd have AK enough at ~17:1.

Great to finally talk to talk to you and hang out a bit,
Joe