'Going Pro'- a serious conversation

[bernie]

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-Thoughts on the percentage of 2+2'ers that are professional poker players?


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Many more say they are but probably really aren't. At least not in the independent sort of way.

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-Thoughts on the percentage of players that 'go-pro' and successfully maintain the neccessary ROI given their own goals?


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Depends on their monthly nut. You want that minimized as much as possible.

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-Anyone with personal commentary on how the poker experience changed when it went from supplemental income to main source of income..

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Not as fun as semi-pro. It becomes like another job. Except you get to deal with more petty/miserable/degenerate/whiny people on a regular basis.
Which can wear on you. It sure has me.

b

[sick!]

Sounds like you've almost made up your mind and just looking for some numbers to confirm your decisions. Hate to say it, but the numbers really don't matter. I can say that 5% are highly successful and another 15% are moderately to break even. Does that really mean anything, a little but not a whole lot. The numbers you should be looking at are how much per hour am I making, how much per week or per month. How many hands I've seen, how long have I been a winning player. I'm not talking about just after 6 months when you hit a big score. I'm talking about what you've done in the past 2-3 (or more) years or more. Winning for short time means you could just be on the good side of variance as well.

I've known some decent players who have had big scores only to find themselves down on there luck. End up playing other casino games games (blackjack, baccarat, etc) just to pay for living expenses. Your a bit ahead of the game since you've got some money saved and the ability to find another job plus side things going. As I said before, try taking time off from work (vacation, leave of absence or whatever) and try it out.

Also you NEED to take into consideration your personal life. If your in a poor mood, your just going to be giving away your money at the table since you aren't concentrating fully on your game.

Hope this helps.

[hammer33]

thanks homedog- you say you play all day. do you set aside a few days a week to do a night shift..realizing that the tourists are on vaca and play day and night..as opposed to atlantic city where there is more of a night clientele of locals that just got off work..i still find on my vegas trips that the night cash games are jucier than day...

'having to win' should never be a situation that occurs..i would like to think that I would never put myself in such a spot...i could see myself taking a shot in a MTT that might be slightly outside ideal given my bankroll but im not going to put myself in a position where losing is going to hurt me to the point that Im not playing the right way..

In terms of too much money coming in..it's hard to quantify that. I dont think there is such thing as too much coming in...I like to think I am smart when it comes to investing so excess is just put to proper use. I dont see myself jumping to a 'big game' where I could lose months of hard work just because I have the extra dough..I have realistic goals and intend to stick with them..If anything, a big win would just make it easier to take a few extra days on that vacation or a nice gift for someone..

[homedog]

I basically play weekends and weeknights. I tried a few all nighters when I first moved out to Vegas. The poker table really crosses over to the Twilight Zone once you get past 4 am. Sometimes it was a goldmine. But other times you're sitting there at 8 in morning watching someone suck out on you and as you walk into the daylight you can help but wonder what the hell you're doing with your life.

I don't do the all nighters anymore unless a game is too good to leave. All nighters were usually profitable but just made the next day too painful and because of family I didn't want to be on a vampire schedule.

I mainly go down to the Strip anytime after 7pm during the week and play as long as the game seems good. On weekends anytime is usually good. It's nice to be able to go home whenever I want. Not to feel I have to get my gambling in.

When I wrote about "having to win" what I was saying is that it changed the way I played. I have much less gamble in me. Yes I still bluff. But I'm much less likely to call big bets with nothing invested in the pot.

In other words I'm laying down pocket kings to big bets on under card boards. I'm laying down baby flushes to all in's. Hands I'd never fold when I wasn't playing professionally. If I knew for certain I was ahead then of course I'd call. But now I see those folds as the cost of doing business. Reducing variance. I make enough money from the big hands I get in when I know I'm ahead.

This was a big change to my game. I used to win and lose a lot more money in each session when I wasn't doing this for a living. Now I'm much more consistent. Because it's a job. That's what I meant by "having to win." It's not that I can't afford to lose my buy in. It's that it's not worth the risk. It's how I stay in business.

[hammer33]

I hear ya. Sounds like you are where you need to be with your game. And it's that discipline that separates the limited percent that can win long term. gamblers or tourists are taking every flush to showdown and most draws to the river..and overpairs to the board always re-raising. hey, we all lose in these situations sometimes but to the gambler, they can never get off these hands, ever.

hey at the end of the day, its a unique profession that many outsiders look down on. I've done the desk job for 10 years and KNOW that its not what I want to do forever..and some would say I'm crazy, as I work in the fantasy sports industry. but sometimes you just know..and after obsessing over all the negatives the last six months, i still lean towards being comfortable making the move..

[Noo Yawk]

A few important considerations:

-How will you handle a major downswing?
-How much do you REALLY know about the game?
-Are you capable of REALLY judging a table, and how your abilities compare to your opponents?
-Do you have enough self awareness to know when to leave a game?

If you want to go pro, realize that big money is an exception, not a rule, even for great players. Most succesful pros are actually happy to pay the monthly nut, and perhaps have a few bucks left over for fun.

[hammer33]

[ QUOTE ]
A few important considerations:

-How will you handle a major downswing?
-How much do you REALLY know about the game?
-Are you capable of REALLY judging a table, and how your abilities compare to your opponents?
-Do you have enough self awareness to know when to leave a game?

If you want to go pro, realize that big money is an exception, not a rule, even for great players. Most succesful pros are actually happy to pay the monthly nut, and perhaps have a few bucks left over for fun.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks Yawk. I can confidently answer the above questions the right way. I handle bad beats and variance well now. In live games, my reads, and my perceived image are definitely strong suits..Online, I'm still tweaking multi-tabling analysis. I feel I lose a little edge when I go to 6 tables, but 5 I handle well. I feel with 6, my reads are off a bit...Leaving the game at the right time is just something that you should know..

Big money is all relative. I truly enjoy the lifestyle, so if I'm doing marginally better on the income, its worth it for me.

[googleit123]

Congrats for wanting to go pro. I've though about it too at times but for the time being I want to play more hands, learn the game more, make mistakes, build a bankroll and learn more about myself.

Once I have played 100k-1M hands, am confident with my play, show a nice win, learn from my mistakes, build a appropraite roll for the limit I am playing and understand how playing for a living will affect my emotional, psychological and financial state when I run bad, I may think about playing for a living.

This is one of QTip's great posts:
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...&PHPSESSID=

In case it does not show the title is "To the New, Aspiring Player" post #3812872. The post is in the Limit HE Micro Stakes but is still relevant to all limits and all forms of poker.

In your case, my advice would be to keep playing, practicing, studying and weigh the advantages and disadvantages of making the move with the fact that you should keep family as a #1!

GL,

Google

[hammer33]

Skimmed the GTip string..that was from quite a long time ago but still relevant. I agree that family is #1 but just to clarify, we are splitting for a variety of reasons, so the traditional family will not exist here. I love my son more than anything and he will always have everything he needs including more time with me. Having a flexible schedule will allow me to work around his schedule rather than the other way around.

The game is ever changing. Each table you play at brings new variables so you always need to be learning and in the moment. No 2 hands are exactly alike. I would argue that the brain power put to use far exceeds most desk jobs. You are always 'working' if you take this seriously as a profession. One of the issues I am looking to explore is for how long can you 'work'. Since you are at such a high level, whats the proper mix of days off before you refuel. Multi day tourneys dont allow such a break but nobody is going to be play MTT's 365 days a yr.

Running bad genuinely does not bother me. It certainly used to but now I view it as something that is not controllable. Everyday is just part of one long continuous game so as long as you are making EV+ moves, it'll all work out.

I will say that as part of my record keeping, I keep track of bad beats (80/20 w/1card to go, poor plays and suck outs (20/80 w/1card to go. My sessions are generally consistent in terms of this data..Results are obviously carrying a high degree of variance.

I'm pretty close to making the move..If the bankroll is in even better shape after the WSOP, I'm going to do this. There is no inherent rush so I'm just going to continue to add a few hrs each week..until its practically full time anyway.

[Fierce Lion7]

Very true. I have not had Variance effect me that much, but it does suck.

Over the last three weeks, I have had so many bad sessions that it is laughable. I figured I had a few beers and messed up. When I looked at the logs the next day, I played it near perfect.

A lot of these new "pros" became pros because they were doing very well. You made an intelligent observation about how someone earning all of their money from Poker would handle such a down swing.

For the original poster, if he has a record like that 2+2er of amassing 1.6 Million dollars in 18 months, I would say go for it.

If you have only won a few grand, do what these guys are saying and seriously take a mental inventory.

Lion out.