UGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGH

[FBP]

Some people here seems to assume that villain will correctly choose the "best 18%" of hands.

That is not true in most cases. Vilain do not know which are the best, most 2+2'er (me included) do not know which 18% are the best taking position, action, images in account.

So flush is a huge part of his range and i would fold this pretty quickly (we're drawing dead a lot).

[aislephive]

[ QUOTE ]
Some people here seems to assume that villain will correctly choose the "best 18%" of hands.

That is not true in most cases. Vilain do not know which are the best, most 2+2'er (me included) do not know which 18% are the best taking position, action, images in account.

So flush is a huge part of his range and i would fold this pretty quickly (we're drawing dead a lot).

[/ QUOTE ]

I've read this like 5 times and still have no idea what you're talking about.

[BalugaWhale]

you can fold this
but i wouldnt

[FBP]

lol ok, i'm not english, i probably explained it poorly.

People here assume through hand reading they can exclude most flush from villain's range due to his preflop call. I say that is incorrect, and result is a exemple in my favor.

Because villain may play 18/2, and you could still see him raising J4s in the CO. Or calling a 3bet OOP with ATo.
Villain doesn't necessarly play the optimal cards to go with his stats. Typically, lots of people overvalue broadways and suited connector.

[True]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Some people here seems to assume that villain will correctly choose the "best 18%" of hands.

That is not true in most cases. Vilain do not know which are the best, most 2+2'er (me included) do not know which 18% are the best taking position, action, images in account.

So flush is a huge part of his range and i would fold this pretty quickly (we're drawing dead a lot).

[/ QUOTE ]

I've read this like 5 times and still have no idea what you're talking about.

[/ QUOTE ]

basically doesn't really contribute much, but it has it's merits if you know villains range.

He is just saying that villain may have a range made up of all suited connectors and broadways but may fold 22-77. It doesn't really help us as we have to work for an unknown and can't really give a descript range but have to use a more general one.

[RiverHebrew2]

He either has same hand as you but has a spade redraw, flopped a flush, or has set. So he either has a 33% edge on u, a 40:60 underdog to u, or has u drawing stone dead with a flush. You can get away from it, especially since you don't have much committed, though I know at the time it becomes very agonizing.

[aislephive]

[ QUOTE ]
lol ok, i'm not english, i probably explained it poorly.

People here assume through hand reading they can exclude most flush from villain's range due to his preflop call. I say that is incorrect, and result is a exemple in my favor.

Because villain may play 18/2, and you could still see him raising J4s in the CO. Or calling a 3bet OOP with ATo.
Villain doesn't necessarly play the optimal cards to go with his stats. Typically, lots of people overvalue broadways and suited connector.

[/ QUOTE ]

I wasn't excluding those hands from his range, I was simply saying that villain is less likely to call preflop with something like ATs or 67s than he is 88-JJ, which I'm sure he never folds preflop, where as he will be dropping suited connectors and suited aces most of the time given his vpip.

And even if we assume he always calls preflop with the range that I gave him, I think it's safe to assume that it's much more likely he would have a set with this action as opposed to the nut flush. I could see him playing a small flush like this given people tend to play small flopped flushes exactly like sets, but I think we can almost entirely rule out the nut flush with the way this hand played out.

Even with a very tight range that I gave him (and again assuming they're all just as likely as the other, which is not true and only strengthens the argument to call) we're barely more than a 60/40 dog. Throw some dead money into the pot and considering that his range is heavily weighted towards sets I think folding is almost out of the question.

[FBP]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
lol ok, i'm not english, i probably explained it poorly.

People here assume through hand reading they can exclude most flush from villain's range due to his preflop call. I say that is incorrect, and result is a exemple in my favor.

Because villain may play 18/2, and you could still see him raising J4s in the CO. Or calling a 3bet OOP with ATo.
Villain doesn't necessarly play the optimal cards to go with his stats. Typically, lots of people overvalue broadways and suited connector.

[/ QUOTE ]

I wasn't excluding those hands from his range, I was simply saying that villain is less likely to call preflop with something like ATs or 67s than he is 88-JJ, which I'm sure he never folds preflop, where as he will be dropping suited connectors and suited aces most of the time given his vpip.

And even if we assume he always calls preflop with the range that I gave him, I think it's safe to assume that it's much more likely he would have a set with this action as opposed to the nut flush. I could see him playing a small flush like this given people tend to play small flopped flushes exactly like sets, but I think we can almost entirely rule out the nut flush with the way this hand played out.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, agree here.

I think my argument is not irrelevant, as in, it makes him have a flopped flush more often.

But still, his flop play is wierd for such a passive guy. I'm not so sure about the fold afterall.
I also heard a theorem which says 'when very passive people wake up big on the flop, they're bluffing a lot'. Afterall, this is one of the most action packed flop in hold'em.

[luckychewy]

i see two things and i've drawn one conclusion.

nit
+
overbet
=
nuts

(i still thinking pushing is acceptable if tilting or whatever)

[john kane]

looks like a low flush or set. impossible to distinguish which, as he plays both the same i imagine. given his pf hand calling range set seems slightly more likely, however, id say he is more likely to play a flush this way, so meh, whatever the maths of this hand range says you should do.