$50 NL - Rivered Full House On Uber Cordinated Board

[MrFister]

i think youre forgetting a little somthing here:

1. preflop:
this specific situation has to be seen under some different as usual aspects. this is a typical BSB situation. villian might have thought:
"that little creep trying to buy my blind, thinking he doesnt need much of a hand cuz he has the stealerbutton in front of him"
villain is correct because oftentime people believe theyre entitled to raise with anything from the button. also he is provided with half-decent pot odds (almost 2:1) so the preflop call is definetely +EV in case hes holding anything at all. (suited connectors and 1-gapers, small to medium pocketpairs, suited aces, highcards,...)
also from this perpective he might well have been slowplaying a monster TT-KK, maybe even AK/AQ... he might have wanted to encourage hero to bluff at the pot again.
if the board had helped villian at the point hero is betting out again, he can still be flatcallen/slowplaying or deciding to end it right here by checkraising, possibly 3-betting if he hit a monster such as a set on an easy board.

all these possibilities will have to make hero wonder more about what kinda hand villain was on preflop - just because it is BSB play (which some people recklessly overdo putting their opponent on a stone-cold bluff).


2. postflop:

at this point villain might be on a lot of hands again:
a big draw like J9s, KJs providing him with 12+ outs or a just a OESD or a flushdraw - possibly Ax of diamond.
he might also be protecting/valuebetting: AK, AQ, QQ, (KK)

so here is the time hero really wants to come over the top and find out where he is at. also he needs to protect his 2pair as well. thus i believe a substatial reraise here is mandatory since villian might still be putting hero on a BSB-kinda hand and try to steal.

3. turn:

this is an ambiguous play by villian again. he might still be drawing but not be willing to put in another bet to see the river cheaply but more likely he will be scared of the board which has become really draw-heavy by now. one more possibility might be that he made his straight, flush or straightflush and is running a trap.

so since hero missed out to reraise on the flop, here is a perfect situation to find out where he is at.
if villian really was scared of the board, thisll chase him out. if hero meets resistance, he knows that hes beat.

4. river:

now this is a real tough one for hero. and a would say its his own fault that is is so tough. he has played the hand way too passively and has no sound information about his opponents hand. villian has taken the initiative from the flop on. so he has gathered some information unlike hero.
but this information might not be good! the way hero was playing the hand villian is probably putting him on a pair, an ace, or a draw. he probably knows hero would lay down a pair for sure but if hero was on a draw he has made it. so villian will be bluffing at least 10% of the time if hes know to be aggressive probably a lot more (also take into consideration that hero was checking behind on the turn which will induce a bluff by villain a lot of times). an aggressive player might bet a straight especially if hero is known to be aggressive, too which i would also consider a bluff here.(i doubt hero is aggressive the way he has played this hand). given the way hero has played the hand villian will bet flushes.
so hero can beat all of the above plus a lower fullhouse (TT,QQ) which is also very plausible the way villian bet the flop but refused to bet out the turn. a jack of diamonds is of course very plausible as well but dont forget that is fairly unlikely he really has a RF.

to get a sophisticated answer wether to call here or not, somebody would have to do some poker calculation with a good estimation on villians holdings. im not good at this so id rather leave it to others.

if you asked me for my best guess i would call for sure. but as i said i might be wrong youll have to consult a pokercalculator.
raising is beyond all question, you cant raise this board on the river with this kind of holding. He'll fold every weaker hand than ours for sure if he knows what hes doing at all. If were beat hell reraise back and we just lost an entire stack.

my conclusion:
whatever villian was holding preflop he played okay. Also on later streets he played well, playing his opponent and the board proabaly more than his cards.
the one who misplayed the hand was hero. Not reraising the flop and then refusing to bet the turn left him with very few information only and gave him a tough one on the river when the ace of diamonds appeared.

[KEW]

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What hands have the J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] that plays PF and flop this way??? Like I said I can only think of the J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]...

IMO KK and QQ 3 bets less out of the big blind then you think..I am amazed nightly by all the slowplaying and how reluctant many/some are to 3 bet KK/QQ esp OOP...

Any hand that beats us is unlikely..Either needs the case Ace(then a K or Q) or the J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]..BOTH any hand we beat IMO misplayed the hand PF...

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I do this often and it's A HUGE LEAK. "Oh there's no way he called my PSB with just a gutshot... how could he check behind with a flush draw..." Somewhere in NLHETAP it mentions how a big bet is the most important piece of information you can get: you might think your opponent would never get to the river with 74, but if a big bet represents 74, you have to consider the possibility of him having 74. At uNL it's in fact pretty common for our opponents to have "misplayed" a hand.

That said I'm felting this river... but it's very possible for villain to have the J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] even if we consider him a "good" player.

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This thinking is certainly not a HUGE LEAK...It's putting your opponent on a hand range and then acting accordingly..I think you missed what our discussion was about and there was NO big bet...

[JMurder3]

Call is good...what if you raise & he pushes? Where does that leave you? Praying he has QQ & when he doesn't, losing your whole stack? If you have him beat...cool...nice pot. If you don't, at least you didn't donk off your whole stack.

[VisualCSharp]

Does the fact that villain's bet is *exactly* 1/2 pot mean anything to anyone? That means he took the time to divide 21 by two, then type in exactly that number. Could be an interesting tell with more history. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Could be AJxd, J9dd.. smells like a monster. 1/2 pot bet asking to be raised. At uNL you'll see bets like this all the time.

Can anyone put him on anything but AQ or Jd here? He checked the turn on a straightening, connecting board then, as OP said, donk bet the river.

[nukewell]

MrFister what u just wrote is utterly ridiculous. u put the villian on just about every 2 cards under the sun, already put the hero on a bluff based on the fact he is on the button and tell the hero to raise every street for information even though he has position. Under the same train of thought, the villian might suspect the cold call on the flop indicates strength and is scared into just checking the turn. i reckon you'll go broke pretty quick raising for information every hand u play. what do u do if he cold calls/raises? release every time?

By the way, u dont have 10minutes to make every decision, get out a book and hand calculator, make a sandwich ect. just make a decision based on reads, the action and your hand, no need to go into too much depth.

raising the flop isnt terrible but it bloats the pot pretty much marries u to the hand which is fine with a diamond but not so much without. Up to the river is pretty standard.

pushing the river just sucks in the long run. your never getting call by a worse hand enough to make it profitable

if i take a guess i put the villian on AQ, but he could be taking a stab with air hoping the board scares u into folding.

[MrFister]

villain will be able to call with a really wide range of hand before the flop because of the BSB situation. i believe we do agree about this.
when hero is confronted with a raise on the flop he will need to figure out what to put his opponent on. for this reason and also very importantly for protection against the the diamond and possibly straight draw, hero will have to raise. maybe he can take the pot right there if not he will know that is up against a strong hand.
now if hero gets called and he faces this kind of turn card, he can choose to check behind or even fold versus a bet by villain.
but since hero actually just called on the flop, he still doesnt know where hes at. thus betting when villain checks to him will help him to find out now. if villain wasnt on a flush draw and is no running a trap, hell be scared of the diamond just as much as hero is and probably go away when faced with a bet. still the 2pair could be way the best hand even with three diamonds out there.
you have to see it from villains perspective. hero called with the two diamonds out there and now he is betting the third one. thats a very likely kind of betting pattern with a draw that becomes a hand once the turn comes.

when you allow your oppont to see every street cheaply and let him draw out on your 2pair, you just have no chance at all to put him on a small hand range. at one point you have to put the pressure on him which hero never did!
this is why you have such a hard decision to make on the river when villain can be doing pretty much everything from a stone cold bluff (induced by just calling the flop then checking behind on the turn) to the ultimate nuts - the case jack.
im not saying to bet every street! one bet after the flop or the turn woulda done the trick.
so i would chose between two ways to play the hand:

1. reraise the flop:
when you get called or even raised your probably beat and can find an easy laydown

2. you havent come over the top on the turn. now raise the turn instead. if you get called you see a terrible turn and when faced with a bet you can probably lay it down. now that you have put the pressure on villain, youre likely to be able to see a free showdown.

id say alternative 1 is more likely to win the hand at all while alternative 2 is potentially more likely to get a bet on a later street presuming there is no more diamonds or other dangerous cards out there.

[MrFister]

oh yeah one more thing. im aware you cant do this kind of analysis while playing. this is just a way to find out wether you played correctly or not whichll help you improve your game later, applying what you have learned during the analysis.

[nukewell]

my other post got lost in the down period

im interested in results

[Check_The_Nuts]

I think this range is retarded because I don't see why he would lead that baord with KK, but anyways:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.000% 50.00% 00.00% 7 0.00 { AhTh }
Hand 1: 50.000% 50.00% 00.00% 7 0.00 { KK-QQ, TT, AQs+, AQo+, AcJd, AhJd, AsJd }

A much better range would be to take out TT and KK, and see how he does then:

Board: Td Qd Ad Kd Ac
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 30.000% 30.00% 00.00% 3 0.00 { AhTh }
Hand 1: 70.000% 70.00% 00.00% 7 0.00 { QQ, AQs+, AQo+, AcJd, AhJd, AsJd }

Which makes it a clear call and definitely not a raise. If I'm villian on that river I don't see a point in leading with TT. I doubt I ever have KK and with that hand I still think its better to induce bluffs rather than bet.

[kolotoure]

I am calling. If there isn't 4 to a straight flush I would probably be more inclined to shove