Range and equity estimation vs. orange

[Ralph Wiggum]

[ QUOTE ]
Also after running numbers along the lines that you did, I was pretty surprised at how poorly a hand as seemingly strong as KcKd does against this range. So doesn't that mean that orange should be raising a wider range here, if I need a hand stronger than the one I have to profitably call/shove given the above range? Not saying that he IS raising a wider range (I probably don't), but perhaps we all should?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is the most interesting part. It depends on what your betting range here is on the flop.

[orange]

PSA: HERE IS UTG:

POKERSTARS GAME #9183219352: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($1/$2) - 2007/03/31 - 15:27:24 (ET)
Table 'Klytia III' 6-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: oI2ange ($211 in chips)
Seat 2: tuco1979 ($404.95 in chips)
Seat 3: vypex ($206.55 in chips)
Seat 4: tofirstorder ($210.65 in chips)
Seat 5: ChipTaker23 ($130.55 in chips)
Seat 6: bigbluffer79 ($239.20 in chips)
tofirstorder: posts small blind $1
ChipTaker23: posts big blind $2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to oI2ange [Qs 8d]
bigbluffer79: folds
oI2ange: folds
tuco1979: folds
vypex: calls $2
tofirstorder: folds
ChipTaker23: raises $8 to $10
vypex: calls $8
*** FLOP *** [6h 4s 8c]
tuco1979 said, "I use the picture to intimidate my opponents, JK."
ChipTaker23: bets $16
vypex: raises $16 to $32
ChipTaker23: raises $48 to $80
vypex: calls $48
*** TURN *** [6h 4s 8c] [9s]
ChipTaker23: bets $40.55 and is all-in
vypex: calls $40.55
*** RIVER *** [6h 4s 8c 9s] [Kh]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
ChipTaker23: shows [Ah Ac] (a pair of Aces)
VYPEX HAS A6

[yad]

[ QUOTE ]
GM, read my next post. i wouldnt mind callign to entice UTG to come along. yad needs to talk about UTG...he was sooo bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

orange, you're right. I should have mentioned that UTG was a donkey.

IDK what this does to your preflop ranges though. on the one hand, sure you'll call wider to get UTG to come along. OTOH, you'll probably 3bet wider preflop too because you know I'm isolating wide with lots of stuff that can't call a 3bet. So perhaps in net this weights your range more towards 44/33 and away from nut flush draws.

[orange]

i would call wider. i'm hoping for overcall with UTG. i would call here with something like KTs i think, (if i flop TPGK vs. donkey, my money is going in). AJ might be an overcall, i prob RR AQ/AK (though is calling hoping for an overcall horrendous?).

[yad]

orange,
holy cow. i didn't realize UTG was THAT bad. just thought he was a bit loose-passive. even though there i am at that table for that hand. i need to play less than 8 tables sometimes.

in view of that hand, your range to raise on the flop is probably a lot narrower than i thought.

[orange]

i 3-tabled today to get some good notes/reads, it worked well today [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[yad]

[ QUOTE ]
i would call wider. i'm hoping for overcall with UTG. i would call here with something like KTs i think, (if i flop TPGK vs. donkey, my money is going in). AJ might be an overcall, i prob RR AQ/AK (though is calling hoping for an overcall horrendous?).

[/ QUOTE ]

interesting. I dunno if it's right, but I would probably rr those big card hands. I don't really relish playing them postflop with bad absolute and relative position -- would rather take down the $10 a good portion of the time. but perhaps this is wrong. would definitely CC a small PP though.

[GrandMelon]

results?

[bilbo-san]

I push here.

I don't really doubt that Orange often has a strong hand. But we have 11 outs vs. a set! He does not need to have something like A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]X or T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] very often for shoving to be profitable here.

[yad]

I pushed, he instacalled with 444. I didn't improve.

The extreme donkiness of UTG narrows orange's range and makes this less interesting IMO. But I didn't realize at the time quite how bad UTG was (and in any event, I wouldn't have known whether orange realized it).

Without this knowledge, I did think along the lines of bilbo that even if he has a set, I have decent equity. But in general I think his range for this is something like:

small flush (unlikely given PF)
set (reasonably likely)
nut flush
nut flush draw (moderately unlikely given PF, though AdJx is certainly possible)
mid non-set PP with diamond (somewhat unlikely IMO).

And though you can play with this a lot, it's really remarkable to me how badly KcKd fares against this or any other reasonable range.

I so rarely have a better hand than KcKd here, so this suggests to me that we should all perhaps be bluff-CRing here a bit more in orange's spot.