playing 7 6o against AA or KK

[RichGambler]

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I'll take a stab at this, even though it depends on the situation, and a lot of assumptions:

There's a ~10% chance you'll have the better hand on the flop He then has a ~20% chance of out-drawing you. Let's say he sucks real bad and can never get away from the aces when you have him beat. You are awesome, and can always get away from your hand when you are beat, but not when you get out-drawn of course.

So...

90% of the time, you'll be out what you called pre-flop.
8% of the time, you'll get all your money in with 80% chance to win, and win.
2% of the time, you'll get all your money in with 80% chance to win, and lose.

Just estimating the math, you can call 1/15 of your stack pre-flop and break-even in the long run. If he's better at getting away from being beat, then you'll have to call much less.

It'll be interesting to see how close I am to what the math geniuses come up with. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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10% of time time better hand then AA on flop? You must be nuts.

Trips and 2 pair are 5% of the time.
Do you even count A66 A55 A56? What do you do here? Can you put him on AA I doubt that. You will put him on AK and he will stack you like a noob. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[renereal]

well i seen patrick antonius with 76o break a guy that kk for about 50k. the put a healthy raise preflop and patrick called and broke him on the flop with a straight. happened at the ausie million cash game.

[KipBond]

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There's a ~10% chance you'll have the better hand on the flop

[/ QUOTE ]10% of time time better hand then AA on flop? You must be nuts.

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Obviously I'm not nearly as good at math as you. Care to show your work? I just estimated: HU 76o has a 20% chance of winning against AA going to the river. After the flop 60% of the cards are out, so I just said 10% (estimating).

So, yeah, how do you get 5% exactly?

[RichGambler]

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There's a ~10% chance you'll have the better hand on the flop

[/ QUOTE ]10% of time time better hand then AA on flop? You must be nuts.

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Obviously I'm not nearly as good at math as you. Care to show your work? I just estimated: HU 76o has a 20% chance of winning against AA going to the river. After the flop 60% of the cards are out, so I just said 10% (estimating).

So, yeah, how do you get 5% exactly?

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2 pair on flop ~4%
trips on flop ~ 1.3%
floped straight ~ 1.3%
Boat ~ 0.09%
Quads ~ 0.01%

So in other words you have 5% to have favorite hand on flop.
65off vs AA = 18.5% chance win

It increases because sometimes you flop pair + open end draw which increases your chance to win to 45%

If you flop any pair you have 20% till river

If you flop pair+ gut shot your chance increases to 32%
If you flop open end draws you chance will increase to 33%

You have to call 20 times to have him beat on flop and he still has outs depends what you got its either about 8% or 20% depends if you floped trips or 2 pair.

Not to mention that sometimes you going to get A55 A66 A56 flop and then you are toast.

if he raised 4x and he bets 8x and you are calling on draw you don't have enough odds to draw.

In other words forget about 65 off [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[RobNottsUk]

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10x BB? Insane. 5x BB good.

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You can't play poker well by 'recipes' and over simplification.

If you have AA, and 2 players will call for 25% of stack, then that's the right raise. You don't want 5bb and then have 6 ppl calling you, and a nighmare on the flop! Similarly if bluff addicts mean, you cannot lay down, then you want to get the money in pre-flop, and the best way of doing that might be limping, mini-raising, or some other tactic.

In a game with more solid players, who are more readable 'for profit', then 5bb is good so long as you're not going to loose 50+ bb when you're outdrawn, you'll have to be prepared to lay down post-flop then.

[KipBond]

Uh huh. Not disagreeing. My post was in response to the person saying a 5bb raise was not enough to get him to fold 67o. So, yeah. If a donkey will call an all-in against your AA, then that's +EV too.

[KipBond]

You are probably right, I'm not math wiz. It does seem odd to me that you have 18.5% chance of winning with 5 cards, but only 5% chance with 3 cards. Can you explain that?

(PS: I'm in no way advocating playing 76o (or 65o) against AA -- unless you get in very cheap, and/or your opponent is a huge donkey that will give you 100+BB when you have him beat.)

So, adjusting for the revised flop win%:

95% of the time you will call & fold to a good bet on the flop.
1% of the time you will call & get all-in on the flop & lose.
4% of the time you will call & get all-in on the flop & win.

So, you can call 3/95 of your stack (about 3%) and break even. This doesn't consider if you flop an OESFD or if your opponent bets weak giving you proper odds on the next 2 cards. Hell, if your opponent really sucks (never bets after the flop but will call your all-in), you can call about 2/9 of your stack pre-flop and break even.

But, you know, if your opponent really sucks this bad, there are a whole lot better +EV spots for you to stack him.

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Not to mention that sometimes you going to get A55 A66 A56 flop and then you are toast

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I thought the OP (somehow) knew his opponent had AA, so he wouldn't call/bet on any of those flops. If he doesn't know what his opponent has, then he'll have to call a whole lot less.

[RichGambler]

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You are probably right, I'm not math wiz. It does seem odd to me that you have 18.5% chance of winning with 5 cards, but only 5% chance with 3 cards. Can you explain that?

2 pair on flop ~4%
trips on flop ~ 1.3%
floped straight ~ 1.3%
Boat ~ 0.09%
Quads ~ 0.01%

So in other words you have 5% to have favorite hand on flop.
65off vs AA = 18.5% chance win

It increases because sometimes you flop pair + open end draw which increases your chance to win to 45%

If you flop any pair you have 20% till river

If you flop pair+ gut shot your chance increases to 32%
If you flop open end draws you chance will increase to 33%

You have to call 20 times to have him beat on flop and he still has outs depends what you got its either about 8% or 20% depends if you floped trips or 2 pair.

[Bang584]

RichGambler, I just wanted to let you know that flopping a worthwhile two pair is closer to 2%. It is true that you will flop two pair about 4% of the time, but about half the time, your second pair will be on the board.

[RobNottsUk]

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You are probably right, I'm not math wiz. It does seem odd to me that you have 18.5% chance of winning with 5 cards, but only 5% chance with 3 cards. Can you explain that?


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Let's look at AK v 22.

If both players were All In, you know it's about 55:45 -ish.

3 cards on flop, it's 32.5% chance of an A or K on flop, and there's only 10% chance of a 2 in 2 remaining cards.

So flop gives you some chance to catch up, turn and river a little more.

Implied odds pre-flop, depend on flopping a profitable hand, that you can pursue. Pot equity calcs, tend to assume it'll go to river show down, which is not realistic.