FT 50: KK, got reraised preflop by World's Nittiest Nit

[Albert Moulton]

Call and play for set value.

If the flop is anything other than KXX, you may want to check/fold.

This is a very rare case, however.

[FattyMcGee]

Why not bet the flop - somewhere between 1/2-2/3 pot - so you know where you stand. If he calls or raises, then you are done with the hand. But then again, if your data on his preflop raises is really accurate - that he raised only 2% of hands - then a check/fold seems appropriate since the only hand you are ahead of is A/K. If you are that certain that he has aces, it may not even be +EV to call flop for set value. You will flop a set to his overpair about 1 out of 8 times so you'll need to be able to extract 4.25 x 8 = $34 from him when you do, which is 70% of his stack. And this assumes that you'll win every time you spike a set, which is also not true. About 10% of the time that you spike a set, you'll lose your full stack - $50. So you'll really need to be able to extract more like 80% of his stack on a spiked set to make this a +EV play. This seems ambitious. If the stacks were 200bb, the call would be clearer. All of this assumes, however, that he has aces - and I'm not convinced. Aces come less than .5% of the time (1 in every 220 hands or so I believe) and he's raising 4 times as much as this. So perhaps he's raising with hands as low as jacks and A/K - and perhaps his standard line is to reraise in this spot with jacks, queens, kings or A/K. My vote is to call the preflop bet, and then bet the flop for about 1/2-2/3 pot and give up the hand if he calls and a K doesn't come.

[CanSpoilU]

Horrible flop for you based on his range. These types of players only raise with AA/KK. And I betcha even half the time they hold AA they probably limp or cold call.

Fold.

[raistlinx]

[ QUOTE ]
It doesn't sound like you had a great plan of action for this hand. If you are calling just for set value then you have to dump the flop. You can't beat any legitimate hands he should have when this flop comes out.

[/ QUOTE ]
QFT Calling for set value was good but you have to let it go on the flop.