Mr. Inconsistent : KTs UTG

[bernie]

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[I took the time to show that we don't have more then enough outs. The basis to continue should really be about feeling we are ahead. If we're playing abc poker according to pot odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're getting 8-1 on the turn call. You have about 7 outs(6-1).

Easy turn call to improve.

b

[bernie]

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Actually good point made in there. If the goal of the turn call was to only continue if you made a straight, then at 5 to 1 on the turn you're for sure priced out of the whole thing.


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It's 8-1 on the turn.

b

[Entity]

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The point on the turn isn't only to continue if you make a straight. Since his range will be something like AK/AA, FSDR, and then 88/KK, you've got more than enough outs + the chance that your hand is good and villain won't usually fire 3 barrels here on this board.

Rob

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I took the time to show that we don't have more then enough outs. The basis to continue should really be about feeling we are ahead. If we're playing abc poker according to pot odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

You took the time, but you were way off.

Weighted outs distribution, assuming we're always behind:

KK - 1 - 4 outs = 4
AK - 8 - 7 outs = 56
AA - 6 - 9 outs = 54
88 - 3 - 4 outs = 12

Total: 126 outs 18 ways = 7 outs average. We need 5.57:1 to continue and we're getting 8.25:1. Your math was either off or you misread the board, I think --

FWIW...that's giving him a tight range preflop and postflop. The reverse implied odds of him having AK and us putting in 1 extra bet since we now beat AA are mitigated by the times that he free showdowns a worse hand so I'm effectively ignoring reverse implied odds and implied odds in this.

Rob

[rafiki]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Actually good point made in there. If the goal of the turn call was to only continue if you made a straight, then at 5 to 1 on the turn you're for sure priced out of the whole thing.


[/ QUOTE ]

It's 8-1 on the turn.

b

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Ya the 5 to 1 is a typo, we noticed the 9 to 1 above. if we've got 6 outs, the draw is razor thin. As played, thin call, check fold unimproved.

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Actually good point made in there. If the goal of the turn call was to only continue if you made a straight, then at 5 to 1 on the turn you're for sure priced out of the whole thing.


[/ QUOTE ]

It's 8-1 on the turn.

b

[/ QUOTE ]

Ya the 5 to 1 is a typo, we noticed the 9 to 1 above. if we've got 6 outs, the draw is razor thin. As played, thin call, check fold unimproved.

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It's really not that thin of a call. It's an easy call given the pot odds, knowing we have to improve to win.

b

[sweetjazz]

GOT,

I think your line looks reasonable given your read. Not saying that calling the river is right or wrong, but CO is unlikely to have KQo and might not even 3bet KQs preflop, so that limits how many legit 3betting hands he could have. He is basically representing AA/KK/AK, with hands like KQs/88/77/66 possible but discounted heavily.

So basically he doesn't have to have a whole lot of bluffs, overplayed pairs between 9s and Qs to make the river call correct. That said, I don't really disagree with your line, but if I make this fold, I do have concern in the back of my head that villain doesn't have to get out of line that much to make a call better than a fold. (Even so, a fold is at worst a pretty small mistake given this opponent.)

[Sqred]

I only play six max online so it is pretty much a natural that I would find myself in this position more than a few times a session.

I think you need to check the turn when you pick up the gutterball draw. I play a little higher than 15 so I would be very leary of a semibluff here with something like a pair and str8 draw or pair and flush draw. the Turn semibluff is just so fashionable right now in the mid-limits. I would check because I know for a fact that the street will get bet anyway, I would like to make two bets from an underpair, and I don't want to face a hard decison with this strong of a hand shorthanded.

Back to HPFAP, check hands that may be beaten but have outs on the turn, bet hands with no outs if behind. Contol pot size the best you can out of position.

FJM

[PokerBob]

nh. you are not winning on the river.