B&M LO8 3/6 Full Kill hand

[fishyak]

I'll come to one last defense of the flop call. You closed the action. You knew that it could only cost you one bet and if your turn card didn't improve your situation - you could get out. Rough odds can give you some idea on how to price the value of potential improvement on the turn, but those same estimates have also shown how complicated that calculation truly is and how it would be impossible to do more than guesstimate live. And look at the upside, the turn card vastly improved your outs and your chance of scooping. I do not think the value of that improved position on the turn was properly credited in the decision to call the flop. But what made it easy for me was the fact that your bet closed the action. You knew exactly what that flop bet would cost you and that is not often the case. We often have to factor in the possibility of a raise behind us which would have made your flop call much more tenuous.

[jlocdog]

Fishyak,

Reread the OP. The hand started with 5 players. After the flop the hand had 4 players. How do we know that an EP wasn't the one who folded. If that was the case, then hero did not close the action. Maybe nitty but your post was aimed specifically at that point.

Either way, I think we can all agree that a call or a fold is not catstrophic here. If their is a mistake to be made in ones session, this one would be ok to handle....

[EffenDolts]

[ QUOTE ]
Don't you think it depends on the individual? There are players in my games who would be delighted to see the flop if dealt 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], and then what is somebody who would play such a hand going to do with a flopped straight plus two back-door straight-flush draws after this JT9-rainbow flop? Sure, you don’t play that starting hand crap, and I don’t play that starting hand crap, but people do. And sure, you don’t play flopped bottom end straights with no chance for low and I don’t either, but some people do.

[/ QUOTE ]

OP has two of the 8's. I don't know much, except that villain doesn't have 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Buzz, you are the last person that I expected would create a fantasy scenario where all villains have rather improbable hands that leave you with any equity. Giving them xx78 when you have xx88 is really wishful thinking. They are 50% more likely to have QK than 78 by random chance, and even more likely based on how hard it is to have a good starting hand with 78, and how the action has gone so far.

The only way you can have any equity is if villains have low cards. Nothing else works. Even if several villains started playing low, you still have to worry about chopping with AK.

I didn't assign any queens to villains in my sim setup. I just assumed that they had a few high cards, given that they are staying in on a high-only flop. If they started with high-oriented hands, OP is probably drawing much thinner than you would guess.

By Bayesian inference, villains hands are rich in high cards, and especially rich in Queens.

Remember, even 3/6 donkeys don't draw for runner-runner-runner low.

Effen

[Buzz]

Hi Effen -

[ QUOTE ]
OP has two of the 8's. I don't know much, except that villain doesn't have 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]You’re right about that, but he could have
8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. And that is not a fantasy.

[ QUOTE ]
Buzz, you are the last person that I expected would create a fantasy scenario where all villains have rather improbable hands that leave you with any equity.

[/ QUOTE ]Thank you. I don’t really think they have the improbable hands I gave them. I was trying to make a point.

[ QUOTE ]
Giving them xx78 when you have xx88 is really wishful thinking. They are 50% more likely to have QK than 78 by random chance, and even more likely based on how hard it is to have a good starting hand with 78, and how the action has gone so far.

[/ QUOTE ]Agreed.

[ QUOTE ]
The only way you can have any equity is if villains have low cards. Nothing else works.

[/ QUOTE ]I’m not hedging, but I don’t know what you mean by “any equity.”

I don’t think the Villains have all low cards, but I don’t think they necessarily have all high cards either. Any one of them (or all of them) might easily have two low cards plus two high or medium cards they think fit this flop. Putting them all on high cards is not <font color="white">_</font>as improbable as the “fantasy” hands I created, but it is improbable.

But mainly, you simply cannot nail down any missing queens. You simply cannot assume these opponents are playing with some specific number of queens.

[ QUOTE ]
Even if several villains started playing low, you still have to worry about chopping with AK.

[/ QUOTE ]Excellent point. I actually figured that in when calculating the e.v.

[ QUOTE ]
I didn't assign any queens to villains in my sim setup. I just assumed that they had a few high cards, given that they are staying in on a high-only flop.

[/ QUOTE ]Of course they have high cards! And probably more than a few!

[ QUOTE ]
If they started with high-oriented hands, OP is probably drawing much thinner than you would guess.

[/ QUOTE ]Not really. If they all started with high-oriented hands, I’d guess OP is drawing very thin. But the thing is, they probably didn’t <font color="white">_</font>all have high oriented hands. Indeed, it’s much more likely that most of them had hands with a couple of low cards plus a couple of high cards.

[ QUOTE ]
By Bayesian inference, villains hands are rich in high cards, and especially rich in Queens.

[/ QUOTE ]Agreed.

[ QUOTE ]
Remember, even 3/6 donkeys don't draw for runner-runner-runner low.

[/ QUOTE ]Thanks for the laugh. I agree.

Buzz