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#21
03-21-2007, 01:18 AM
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Re: Economy is REALLY, REALLY, REALLY In Trouble
Because I don't have a crystal ball I'll keep earning my risk premia thank you very much. FWIW I can't fathom a catalyst for a major downturn as the subprime crisis is overblown and the housing numbers came out better than expected today.
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#22
03-24-2007, 01:53 PM
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Re: Economy is REALLY, REALLY, REALLY In Trouble
bump.
Stephen Roach on Subprime Spillover Might as well post this one too. Found it on another forum. http://www.billcara.com/CS%20Mar%201...%20Housing.pdf
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#23
03-24-2007, 03:28 PM
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Re: Economy is REALLY, REALLY, REALLY In Trouble
The 19th century belonged to the British Empire, the 20th century belonged to The US, and the 21st century will be noted as Asia's century.
America prospered with its huge middle class consumers - think of the number of consumers China can produce... Asian economies are export-driven and will take a hit when the developed economies slow. It will take time before Asian nations can develop their own consumer-driven economies. I think a financial depression is on its way to rival the 1930s, starting some time between the end of this year and 2010, but I'm not betting on it - just following the trends.
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