Am i missing something

[foolishdrunk]

I have the big12 clearing 7.5 with ease... I have all 3 teams in the elite 8, along with tech beating bc in round 1.

[NajdorfDefense]

[ QUOTE ]
I have the big12 clearing 7.5 with ease... I have all 3 teams in the elite 8, along with tech beating bc in round 1.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's a lock, right?

[foolishdrunk]

lol, refuse to respond

[MyTurn2Raise]

alright...because I'm a nerd who likes to do these things and solve interesting math equations, I've gone through and gotten estimates for the Big12 # of wins
It's the easier of the Big conferences with its 4 bids
I used the estimates of winning each round available at teamrankings.com
in sensitivity analysis, I'll use other estimates later
I also had an issue that I assumed the wins were independent of each other. For the most part, this isn't an issue as most possible scenarios don't have the teams colliding much and it will usually only happen at the very end. However, be aware that it is a possibility and will add some error

Exactly
0 wins- .09%
1 wins- 1.09%
2 wins- 3.68%
3 wins- 7.5%
4 wins- 11.16%
5 wins- 13.41%
6 wins- 13.94%
7 wins- 13.2%

for those that cannot cummulate them:
1 win or less-1.09%
2 wins or less-4.76%
3 wins or less-12.26%
4 wins or less-23.43%
5 wins or less-36.83%
6 wins or less-50.77%
7 wins or less-63.95%

This means the bigXII is expected over 7.5 wins 36.05% according to the estimates at teamrankings.com

[Thremp]

MT2R,

Its worth noting that the error that exists only improves your EV and does not lessen it.

[MyTurn2Raise]

good point Thremp--I was trying to think through it and struggled

I went through and did the same estimates using the actual moneylines at Pinny right now for first round/sweet16/finalfour/nat'l title as accurate estimators for wins. I don't have an estimater for elite8 and nat'l title game....I'm looking. For now, I'm using the same estimates of win % for that round at teamrankings.com based on teh updated estimates for advancing in the tourney based on actual market gambling lines. I don't think the difference will be much at all.
The results did change rather dramatically for an improvement for the BigXII, but not enough to take the over 7.5 wins in a straight up bet

1 wins- 0.51%
2 wins- 2.00%
3 wins- 4.89%
4 wins- 8.51%
5 wins- 11.69%
6 wins- 13.47%
7 wins- 13.9%

cummulative:
1 win or less-0.51%
2 wins or less-2.52%
3 wins or less-7.41%
4 wins or less-15.92%
5 wins or less-27.60%
6 wins or less-41.07%
7 wins or less-54.97%

thus, one gets a 45.03% chance of over 7.5 wins
a marked improvement, but still not an even bet

KenPom only has half the bracket done, so I'm waiting on that.

[foolishdrunk]

Then apparently this is a horrible bet, cuz the over is -165

[MyTurn2Raise]

[ QUOTE ]
Then apparently this is a horrible bet, cuz the over is -165

[/ QUOTE ]

the general rule of thumb is that the over in these types of bets is usually bad. The under can be OK if the vigorish is small.

[MyTurn2Raise]

oh yeah...anyone can let me know if they want me to do a similar anaylsis for other conferences and/or sets of teams

[MyTurn2Raise]

alright....I highly recommend Big11ten over7.5 wins
I bet 8.8u to win 8u, which is pretty much my max for a single bet

I used the same methods as I did for the BigXII analysis above
according to the current gambling markets on the individual teams round-by-round--Big11ten has 7 or less wins 30.81% of the time
teamrankings has it at 7 or less 35.29% of the time
KenPom has it at 7 or less 21.17% of the time

No matter the method...this is a ridiculous edge

adjust your bet size by the line you get
I think it's good to -200 at o7.5 for one unit
available at -110 at 5dimes right now

FYI-round-by-round estimates used
Market estimates:
Ohio State 1 97.58% 84.85% 68.76% 40.82% 22.43% 9.52%
Wisconsin 1 90.65% 67.53% 46.04% 19.80% 10.56% 3.51%
Indiana 1 53.49% 17.86% 7.41% 1.96% 0.67% 0.32%
Michigan State 1 55.95% 9.90% 5.56% 1.96% 0.72% 0.33%
Purdue 1 42.74% 8.00% 3.58% 1.04% 0.33% 0.32%
Illinois 1 41.84% 17.24% 5.20% 0.94% 0.33% 0.19%
TeamRankings
Ohio State 1 96.53% 74.44% 58.32% 37.70% 22.35% 13.95%
Wisconsin 1 82.02% 56.37% 37.09% 21.01% 12.13% 6.04%
Indiana 1 57.50% 22.36% 10.23% 4.24% 1.66% 0.56%
Michigan State 1 54.00% 14.83% 8.21% 3.80% 1.44% 0.56%
Purdue 1 40.50% 11.01% 5.12% 1.93% 0.68% 0.20%
Illinois 1 46.50% 22.13% 6.87% 2.46% 0.82% 0.24%
KenPom
Ohio State 1 98.62% 82.16% 68.80% 41.49% 21.00% 11.32%
Wisconsin 1 95.91% 68.27% 48.17% 25.15% 12.31% 5.45%
Indiana 1 71.17% 26.83% 11.68% 3.76% 1.34% 0.37%
Michigan State 1 60.71% 12.72% 7.24% 3.09% 1.10% 0.36%
Purdue 1 50.52% 10.89% 4.67% 1.70% 0.47% 0.11%
Illinois 1 50.70% 30.03% 6.59% 2.29% 0.68% 0.16%