#21
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Re: 3-bet the Turn with KK on a draw heavy board.
You don't know what to do because you didn't raise flop and now you're facing 2 bets cold on a turn where you have no idea what you're opponenents hold. Like joker said betting the flop for value is essential, but another key thing is it tells us alot more about our opponents hands, on the turn we can re-evaluate the action and it will be alot easier to make a decision at that time with the info you have gathered on the flop by raising.
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#22
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Re: 3-bet the Turn with KK on a draw heavy board.
I understand the rationale behind waiting until the turn to raise, but you can't know for sure if they will bet into you again.
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#23
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Re: 3-bet the Turn with KK on a draw heavy board.
I'm going to throw my lot in with Bernie, and say I really like it.
The first time I read it, I didn't realize how coordinated the board was, but realizing how many turn cards could kill your hand made me realize that waiting is optimal. Anyone that is advocating for a flop raise, please don't say it's to "charge draws." It's for value, plain and simple. You have the best hand; you will win a majority of the time, and you are simply making money by raising with the best hand. However, given the way the action went, I think that waiting until the turn to raise could further increase your EV, because when you dodge a scary turn card, your equity goes up even higher, and the bet sizes double. MP could be doing the same thing you are with a smaller overpair (less likely now that the Q hit, but he could easily have AQ in this instance if he's loose) and you shouldn't let a wierd raise stop you from following through on your original plan. Now, a cap makes our position a little more tricky. If you think that someone would cap the turn with a raggedy two pair, you are obliged to call, but if you think you're against a set or a straight...well, I'd have a hard time advocating a fold in a pot this huge (and I don't think I could bring myself to fold the turn), but you should probably entertain the probability of folding the river UI if capped on the turn. |
#24
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Re: 3-bet the Turn with KK on a draw heavy board.
[ QUOTE ]
You don't know what to do because you didn't raise flop and now you're facing 2 bets cold on a turn where you have no idea what you're opponenents hold. Like joker said betting the flop for value is essential, but another key thing is it tells us alot more about our opponents hands, on the turn we can re-evaluate the action and it will be alot easier to make a decision at that time with the info you have gathered on the flop by raising. [/ QUOTE ] They will go to war on the flop with made hand and draws, so the decision is no easier. We don't learn anything different by raising the flop for a measily .5BB. I think we know more now that BB called 3 BB cold and UTG capped. After more thought, I think this is a turn fold even though it's only one bet to me. BB hand looks like a heart draw (but could be a weak two pair) and UTGs hand looks like a set. I have 1 outs unless UTG decided to cap he heart draw on the turn. It's got to be 40-1 for both of them to have a draw here. |
#25
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Re: 3-bet the Turn with KK on a draw heavy board.
[ QUOTE ]
I'd have a hard time advocating a fold in a pot this huge (and I don't think I could bring myself to fold the turn), but you should probably entertain the probability of folding the river UI if capped on the turn. [/ QUOTE ] It's take some balls of steal to call the turn and fold the river in a 20+BB pot. |
#26
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Re: 3-bet the Turn with KK on a draw heavy board.
[ QUOTE ]
ok people, another question is what to do when BB calls 3 cold and UTG caps the turn. Fold because we only have one out against a set (if BB has hearts) or Call because a few cards might help us win this big pot(like the 5c) At this I'm getting over 20-1 but I will have to call another bet on the river, so maybe it's really only 10-1. Is that how I should think about it? [/ QUOTE ] You really think this str8forward player is capping the turn with 2 pair? With the guy coldcalling the 3 bets, you have likely one out. I'd fold to the cap. b |
#27
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Re: 3-bet the Turn with KK on a draw heavy board.
[ QUOTE ]
You don't know what to do because you didn't raise flop and now you're facing 2 bets cold on a turn where you have no idea what you're opponenents hold. [/ QUOTE ] Bull. It's not that hard to figure out where these players are. The guy capping is described as str8 forward. You just woke up on the turn and 3 bet. What's he putting you on that he'd cap with? His range isn't that wide. When he caps, he knows you have likely KK, AA or maybe AQ or QQ. He's saying he can beat at least all but QQ. If this guy will cap with 2 pair, I'd reasses his description. b |
#28
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Re: 3-bet the Turn with KK on a draw heavy board.
[ QUOTE ]
I understand the rationale behind waiting until the turn to raise, but you can't know for sure if they will bet into you again. [/ QUOTE ] Sometimes you have to take that chance. The closer to the button, the less likely they may bet into you. This guy is betting into a PFR and a PF3 bettor. He's expecting to get raised. Very good chance he'll bet again on the turn OR if he doesn't, that the MP will given you played your hand like AK. Yes, sometimes they will check on the turn. It will happen sometimes. Thems the breaks/ b |
#29
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Re: 3-bet the Turn with KK on a draw heavy board.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I'd have a hard time advocating a fold in a pot this huge (and I don't think I could bring myself to fold the turn), but you should probably entertain the probability of folding the river UI if capped on the turn. [/ QUOTE ] It's take some balls of steal to call the turn and fold the river in a 20+BB pot. [/ QUOTE ] Not when their hands are almost face up. How could you possibly think KK is good on the river UI? b |
#30
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Re: 3-bet the Turn with KK on a draw heavy board.
I'd like this line better if the BB bet.
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