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#21
03-07-2007, 11:06 AM
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Re: Random Thoughts on the Current State of Poker
Nice post. I agree that if you want to consistently beat the games you have to evolve. Only thing I disagree about is the break even stretch. If you have played 500k hands there is a good chance you had a long break even streak. Like someone said before, variance seems to outweight skill.
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#23
03-07-2007, 11:48 AM
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Re: Random Thoughts on the Current State of Poker
I party agree with you. At ANY level there have to be winners and losers, because it's a zero-sum game. Only the best will win in the long run. In theory, if all players have the same skillset no-one will win in the long run because of the rake, and the only winner is the website. The players will win in enjoyment but not in $$$.
I admit that you can win from players that tilt or play very bad, but the true effective edge against good opponents is not a lot, your edge over a players that tilts or plays very stupid is enormous. I have nights when I play extremely good and some days that I play less concentrated and lose, this is my main flaw. I think it's possible to belong to the best players but for several months and then tilt and donk your bankroll away in several days. To avoid this, is probably the most important skill in poker (for me...) ... 500k hands ?!? It's almost impossible to lose over the course of 500k hands, at least if you belong to the best players like I do! It's very unlikely to lose over so many hands maybe 3% for a very good player so 1 in every 33 players could and 0.1% for a player with my skill, so still 1 in 1000 will lose...... Maybe you probably don't leave the table early enough to reduce your variance significantly?! 500.000 hands if you play in real life and you are dealt 40 hands an hour this means 12500 hours, 7 hours a day, so 1785 days, 200 working days a year, so this means 9 years.... Come on... how can a good player lose in a period of 9 years playing 200 days a year and still belong to the best. That's hillarious...
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#24
03-07-2007, 12:33 PM
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Re: Random Thoughts on the Current State of Poker
[ QUOTE ]
I party agree with you. At ANY level there have to be winners and losers, because it's a zero-sum game. Only the best will win in the long run. In theory, if all players have the same skillset no-one will win in the long run because of the rake, and the only winner is the website. The players will win in enjoyment but not in $$$. I admit that you can win from players that tilt or play very bad, but the true effective edge against good opponents is not a lot, your edge over a players that tilts or plays very stupid is enormous. I have nights when I play extremely good and some days that I play less concentrated and lose, this is my main flaw. I think it's possible to belong to the best players but for several months and then tilt and donk your bankroll away in several days. To avoid this, is probably the most important skill in poker (for me...) ... 500k hands ?!? It's almost impossible to lose over the course of 500k hands, at least if you belong to the best players like I do! It's very unlikely to lose over so many hands maybe 3% for a very good player so 1 in every 33 players could and 0.1% for a player with my skill, so still 1 in 1000 will lose...... Maybe you probably don't leave the table early enough to reduce your variance significantly?! 500.000 hands if you play in real life and you are dealt 40 hands an hour this means 12500 hours, 7 hours a day, so 1785 days, 200 working days a year, so this means 9 years.... Come on... how can a good player lose in a period of 9 years playing 200 days a year and still belong to the best. That's hillarious... [/ QUOTE ] Nobody said anything about losing over 500k hands. And what do you mean by leaving the table early enough to reduce variance? Also, why do you keep stressing that you are one of the best players on the internet when 80% of your posts suggests you're not even a winner?
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#25
03-07-2007, 12:36 PM
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Re: Random Thoughts on the Current State of Poker
[ QUOTE ]
I find this post to be utterly ridiculous. I am running at 2.1ptbb/100 @ the 400 since the legislation through 400k hands, and I've had a 100k hand break even streak which lasted the entire month of Dec, and I had a 50k hand breakeven streak which lasted from Jan 3 till Jan 20-something. By no means am I saying I'm one of the best @ the 2/4 limit, there are several other 2+2ers who I'd consider to be better then I am that play that level, but this does not mean that I'm not a "good" player @ that level. I have never played with you personally, nor have I ever watched you play, and you may be, and probably are better then I am @ poker, but with that being said, your estimate that everyone who goes through 100k hand breakeven stretches is "terrible" is simply out of touch with reality. [/ QUOTE ] Again, none of this was meant to attack anybody. Anyone who goes through 100k hands of breakeven poker is by no means "terrible" and I never said that anywhere in my post. It is simply my opinion that someone who goes through such a streak likely is not one of the biggest winners at that level and instead of complaining about varience should maybe instead focus on fixing the leaks in their game. I will admit that even the best of players COULD break even for stretches this long with some really, really terrible varience.
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#26
03-07-2007, 12:47 PM
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Re: Random Thoughts on the Current State of Poker
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I party agree with you. At ANY level there have to be winners and losers, because it's a zero-sum game. Only the best will win in the long run. In theory, if all players have the same skillset no-one will win in the long run because of the rake, and the only winner is the website. The players will win in enjoyment but not in $$$. I admit that you can win from players that tilt or play very bad, but the true effective edge against good opponents is not a lot, your edge over a players that tilts or plays very stupid is enormous. I have nights when I play extremely good and some days that I play less concentrated and lose, this is my main flaw. I think it's possible to belong to the best players but for several months and then tilt and donk your bankroll away in several days. To avoid this, is probably the most important skill in poker (for me...) ... 500k hands ?!? It's almost impossible to lose over the course of 500k hands, at least if you belong to the best players like I do! It's very unlikely to lose over so many hands maybe 3% for a very good player so 1 in every 33 players could and 0.1% for a player with my skill, so still 1 in 1000 will lose...... Maybe you probably don't leave the table early enough to reduce your variance significantly?! 500.000 hands if you play in real life and you are dealt 40 hands an hour this means 12500 hours, 7 hours a day, so 1785 days, 200 working days a year, so this means 9 years.... Come on... how can a good player lose in a period of 9 years playing 200 days a year and still belong to the best. That's hillarious... [/ QUOTE ] Nobody said anything about losing over 500k hands. And what do you mean by leaving the table early enough to reduce variance? Also, why do you keep stressing that you are one of the best players on the internet when 80% of your posts suggests you're not even a winner? [/ QUOTE ] Hahahaha, PWNd.
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#27
03-07-2007, 12:52 PM
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Re: Random Thoughts on the Current State of Poker
[ QUOTE ]
Loc: PM for coaching the overall gist of the post seems to be to spam your services as a coach eventhough what you say is 100% correct. [/ QUOTE ] This post is irrelevant to the discussion, but I want to address it anyway since I find it pretty rude. Let me first say that I took down the "PM for coaching" thing today. To this day, I have made exactly $0 coaching lifetime. I have coached several of my friends over the past couple years for free just to be nice and because I love to teach and have a huge passion for the game. Recently a lot of my friends have told me I should start thinking about coaching. Personally I have always been skeptical about this. As my post says, I think putting in thousands of hands and natural ability play a huge role in becoming a big winner. Today my PM box had a bunch of requests for coaching. Many of them said something similar: "I have beeen a $.5/1 player for a year. I want to become the biggest winner at 5/10" ect. ect. Well to be completely honest, I think a coach today can't really take you all that far in achieving such a lofty goal. In the end, the thought of these Micro SSNL grinders paying hundreds of dollars an hour for "coaching" seems slightly unethical to me. Nevertheless, I think it is these students fault for paying this extreme amount of money for something that probably is not going to help their game nearly as much as they think. [ QUOTE ] you've probably come to the realization that currently coaching is more profitable for you than playing...just seems convenient to say the least. [/ QUOTE ] This is just ridiculously untrue. I could never charge per hour what I have made post-legislation. I simply thought it would be nice to balance out my life with a few hours of coaching a week. With that said, I am not going to be coaching, so please stop PMing me with requests.
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#28
03-07-2007, 01:00 PM
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Re: Random Thoughts on the Current State of Poker
With that I mean that if you start with X and make 4X and other players also have a stack of 4X it might be wise to leave the table in order to reduce your variance, go to another table and start again with a standard buyin. If you play for very long sessions in the end the fishes are gone, and you are at the table with relatively good players. Not all the money at the table is easy money and this might be the time to leave the table...
That winning part, I stressed that maybe as a small understatement... And I prefer others to think that I don't win and I love it when people don't believe me while I just told them the truth... That's what I also love with poker, no-one folds against me because they just never believe me.... I play different than almost all players I know and I am happy with the result... I just look at what opponents that that I have in one particular situation, the probability that they think I hit in combination with how I play a hand... I could be ahead or I could be behind. And I will do the EXACT same thing when I am ahead (and get them all-in) and I will do the same thing when I have totally nothing... But the probability I have totally nothing is prety big... So after 10 games, 2 times I showed 27o when i shoved all-in and got called (how stupid did that look!?!) and 8 times I really had it... How can you ever fold against me??? ... that guy can push all-in with absolutely nothing, I am not folding AA here!!! That's why I look like a fish at the table but in the end walk away with a lot of profit, because no-one ever folds against me!
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#29
03-07-2007, 01:03 PM
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Re: Random Thoughts on the Current State of Poker
FWIW, I have coached dozens of SSNL and MSNL players over the past two years. I have made some money doing it, but far less than I would have made playing those hours. But I have met some really great guys through coaching them and I have had a lot of fun doing it. I also think that I have provided a lot of value to my students and I'm sure that they have recouped the coaching expenses at least ten times over due to some of the things we have discussed. Fixing a simple preflop leak can easily save thousands of dollars for someone playing hundreds of thousands of hands. So if you're interested in coaching, I definitely would give it a shot. If you feel bad charging 150/hr, charge 50/hr and see how it goes. Nobody coaches for the money. It is fun.
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#30
03-07-2007, 01:56 PM
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Re: Random Thoughts on the Current State of Poker
[ QUOTE ]
With that I mean that if you start with X and make 4X and other players also have a stack of 4X it might be wise to leave the table in order to reduce your variance, go to another table and start again with a standard buyin. If you play for very long sessions in the end the fishes are gone, and you are at the table with relatively good players. Not all the money at the table is easy money and this might be the time to leave the table... That winning part, I stressed that maybe as a small understatement... And I prefer others to think that I don't win and I love it when people don't believe me while I just told them the truth... That's what I also love with poker, no-one folds against me because they just never believe me.... I play different than almost all players I know and I am happy with the result... I just look at what opponents that that I have in one particular situation, the probability that they think I hit in combination with how I play a hand... I could be ahead or I could be behind. And I will do the EXACT same thing when I am ahead (and get them all-in) and I will do the same thing when I have totally nothing... But the probability I have totally nothing is prety big... So after 10 games, 2 times I showed 27o when i shoved all-in and got called (how stupid did that look!?!) and 8 times I really had it... How can you ever fold against me??? ... that guy can push all-in with absolutely nothing, I am not folding AA here!!! That's why I look like a fish at the table but in the end walk away with a lot of profit, because no-one ever folds against me! [/ QUOTE ] If you truly are a winner and not someone that ran hot for 10K hands and now thinks you are a great player, you express your thoughts (or maybe instincts/subconcious thoughts are more appropriate) really bad.
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