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#21
03-08-2007, 01:47 PM
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Re: how many hrs/week of work needed to beat the S&P500?
[ QUOTE ]
If you want to compete and "beat" the game, you need to be at least as educated as the top players - just like in poker. [/ QUOTE ] This is arguably true in poker, although I would substitute "skill" for "knowledge". But it's 100% wrong in the market. Many of the biggest winners really don't care at all about the underlying nature of what they're buying and selling. Their methods are purely technical, and they often know very little about the actual thing being traded. 
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#22
03-08-2007, 02:00 PM
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Re: how many hrs/week of work needed to beat the S&P500?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Yes, I am serious, and no, I am not wrong. 75% of the funds out there do not outperform the s&p (managed by the top people on Wall st.) yet you think it is not too difficult to have a greater return. Please explain. [/ QUOTE ] Simple - they're not trying to outperform the S&P. . [/ QUOTE ] They're not? Are you saying if they "tried" then they would be able to outperform the S&P or are you saying that they just strive to match the S&P? And its n just fund managers. Private money managers also have a hard time beating the S&p. It seems from the posts I have read that most of the people in this forum believe that a little work will enable them to return 10%-15% consistantly, this is just not going to happen.Splawn, you seem to be in this camp, and that could only mean one of three things, 1. yo havent been doing it long enough to have a real sense of what your long term rsults are 2. youre a prodigy 3. youre exaggerating a bit Regardless, through experience, the newbies will understand and the difference b/w ideal returns and real returns. Let me qualify what I said in my previous post by saying it is very difficult to outperform over an extended period of time. Sure anybody can have a good pick or good year that makes them believe its easy, but to do that year over year is quite difficult.
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#23
03-08-2007, 02:12 PM
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Re: how many hrs/week of work needed to beat the S&P500?
[ QUOTE ]
They're not? Are you saying if they "tried" then they would be able to outperform the S&P or are you saying that they just strive to match the S&P? [/ QUOTE ] Well, since they have a trivial means available to match it, then if that was their goal, that's what they'd do. [ QUOTE ] And its n just fund managers. Private money managers also have a hard time beating the S&p. [/ QUOTE ] Again, because it's usually not their goal. If they wanted to, they could easily do so by just buying their client an index fund. [ QUOTE ] It seems from the posts I have read that most of the people in this forum believe that a little work will enable them to return 10%-15% consistantly, this is just not going to happen. [/ QUOTE ] Depending on whether you're talking real or inflated $$$, many strategies historically have averaged more than 10% per year. It's not unreasonable for a person to believe that they could learn about, and adopt, those strategies. [ QUOTE ] Splawn, you seem to be in this camp, and that could only mean one of three things, 1. yo havent been doing it long enough to have a real sense of what your long term rsults are 2. youre a prodigy 3. youre exaggerating a bit [/ QUOTE ] Well, I'll let you judge for yourself. In 1997, I took $10,000 of my poker bankroll and invested it. Using proceeds from that account, I've produced roughly $600k in cash and funded a business with a valuation of maybe $1m. Nothing I did to make that happen was particularly difficult, complicated, exceptional, or hard to explain. Hence I think it hardly qualifies me as a prodigy. [ QUOTE ] Regardless, through experience, the newbies will understand and the difference b/w ideal returns and real returns. Let me qualify what I said in my previous post by saying it is very difficult to outperform over an extended period of time. [/ QUOTE ] False. [ QUOTE ] Sure anybody can have a good pick or good year that makes them believe its easy, but to do that year over year is quite difficult. [/ QUOTE ] False.
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#24
03-08-2007, 02:47 PM
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Re: how many hrs/week of work needed to beat the S&P500?
1997 lol, cab drivers were making 50% in the 90's by buying anything that had a .com attached. Y
Your point of fund and pve money managers not striving to match the S&P I agree with. However, my point is that when they try to outperfrom it, 75% end up underperforming. Most importantly, your "false" response to my statement that it is quite difficult to outperform the S&P longterm leads me to conclude that you are talking out of your azz, either that or youre living in fantasyland. Oh yeah, I missed the part of your response that stated there are proven strategies that have returned 10% over the long run, please tell me, and the others on this board of those strategies so I can retire.
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#25
03-08-2007, 04:02 PM
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Re: how many hrs/week of work needed to beat the S&P500?
[ QUOTE ]
1997 lol, cab drivers were making 50% in the 90's by buying anything that had a .com attached. Y [/ QUOTE ] Which was a strategy that outperformed the market. Which strengthens my point, not yours. [ QUOTE ] Your point of fund and pve money managers not striving to match the S&P I agree with. However, my point is that when they try to outperfrom it, 75% end up underperforming. [/ QUOTE ] Got any evidence of that? Did you compute that number specifically using funds that claim they want to outperform the S&P in their documentation? Because I've seen only a couple of funds claim that was the goal of their management. [ QUOTE ] Most importantly, your "false" response to my statement that it is quite difficult to outperform the S&P longterm leads me to conclude that you are talking out of your azz, either that or youre living in fantasyland. Oh yeah, I missed the part of your response that stated there are proven strategies that have returned 10% over the long run, please tell me, and the others on this board of those strategies so I can retire. [/ QUOTE ] Certainly. Buy companies with the following characteristics: PE < 10 Growing Low debt Positive analyst sentiment Not commodities producers No evidence of major regulatory or legal problems The same upper management for the last 5 years And sell them when the PE hits 12, any of the other requirements becomes false, or a serious offer is made to purchase the company (which usually causes an instant > 12 PE). Now you know the top secret information. Use it for good.
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#26
03-08-2007, 06:18 PM
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Re: how many hrs/week of work needed to beat the S&P500?
[ QUOTE ]
Outperforming the s&p is extremely easy. GL! [/ QUOTE ] Beating the SPX is trivial. Esp since it is 500 US, large-cap, liquid stocks only. With a more diverse portfolio, you will win: 1) When small caps outperform 2) When Midcaps do 3) When Int'l does. you will underperform only 4) When Megacaps are best. In addition, there are multiple managers out there who've beaten the market and are more tax-sensitive.
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